Women's Final Four: 3 Best Bets and Player Prop Betting Guide for Texas vs. UCLA

Texas is a 1.5-point favorite at FanDuel, with a total of 132.5. This is the more tactical semifinal because the teams are so similar statistically. But Texas has already beaten UCLA once this season and enters Friday playing its best basketball of the year.

Using FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds, let's take a look at the best bets for Texas vs. UCLA.

All March Madness odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and may change after this article is published.

Check out our UConn vs. South Carolina best bets.

UCLA vs. Texas Women's College Basketball Final Four Picks

Texas -1.5 (-118)

This is my favorite play in the matchup because Texas has both the current-form edge and the prior head-to-head win. The Longhorns beat UCLA 76-65 in November, forced 20 turnovers, committed only 10, and built a 23-point lead at one stage. Texas also leads the all-time series 8-7 and carries a W2 streak into this game.

Texas has also looked more dominant in the tournament. The Longhorns beat Michigan 77-41, Kentucky 76-54, Oregon 100-58, and Missouri State 87-45. Their average tournament margin is enormous, and the most recent reporting around the team notes a 35.5-point average margin of victory in the NCAA tournament entering the Final Four. UCLA has been excellent too, but its Elite Eight win over Duke was more survival than domination, and it trailed at halftime before pulling away.

The matchup itself favors Texas because of backcourt control. Rori Harmon averages 6.3 assists and had 13 assists against Michigan, while Booker has been the best scorer in this game over the last three weeks. In a near-pick’em semifinal, I trust the team with the better point guard and the better recent defensive ceiling.

Over 132.5 (-114)

Even though both defenses are elite, the total is low enough that I still lean over. Texas averages 85.0 points and UCLA 84.9, and both teams shoot around 50% from the field. Their first meeting this season landed on 141 total points, comfortably above this number.

The strongest case for the over is that both offenses have multiple pathways. UCLA can score through Betts inside, but it also has Kiki Rice (15.2 points), Gabriela Jaquez (13.4), Gianna Kneepkens (12.8), and Charlisse Leger-Walker (5.8 assists). Texas has Booker, but also Jordan Lee, Kyla Oldacre, Justice Carlton, and Harmon as a distributor. This is not a one-star game.

If the spread stays tight, late fouling also becomes more live. In a Final Four game lined around one possession, 132.5 is low enough that one ordinary fourth quarter can push it over.

Madison Booker Over 17.5 Points (-118)

Again, this is my play-to threshold. Booker averages 19.3 points on the season, but the tournament case is stronger than the season case. Texas reporting says she is averaging 22.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 steals across four NCAA tournament wins, and she has scored 90 total points in those four games.

The other reason to like the over is usage. UCLA’s defense is good, but it is built around protecting Betts inside, which often leaves the opposing lead scorer with a heavy shot diet from the wing and elbows. Booker is exactly the kind of big guard/forward hybrid who can still get to her spots in that environment. And if Texas is right about the possession game again, Booker should be the player finishing the advantage.

Which Final Four bets stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.