WNBA Finals: Game 3 Betting Picks

The Las Vegas Aces will visit the New York Liberty for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals on Sunday.

Last week, the Liberty had their sights set on winning their first WNBA championship in team history. Now, only a week later, New York's season is hanging on by a thread as they try to combat a Finals sweep.

Come Sunday, we will either see the Aces be crowned back-to-back champions, or the Liberty will fight back and make this series interesting.

All WNBA Finals odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

WNBA Finals Game 3 Betting Picks

Las Vegas Aces -2.5 (-105)

The Las Vegas Aces have given us no choice but to roll with them.

Not only have the Aces gone undefeated in the playoffs, but they've won these games handedly, boasting a 16.4-point average margin of victory.

Going into this series, it seemed like Las Vegas was finally going to meet their match; the New York Liberty touted the league's second-best record (32-8) and was the only squad able to beat the Aces more than once this season. In fact, three of the six Las Vegas regular-season losses came at the hands of New York.

However, the Liberty have failed to make this a competitive series. The Aces not only have a 2-0 series lead, but they won these two games by a whopping average of 22.5 points.

Las Vegas is playing at a different pace than New York. During the playoffs, the Aces have averaged 14.7 fast break points per game while the Liberty have only averaged 8.3.

Meanwhile, the Liberty allow 13.9 points per game off of turnovers while the Aces' allow 9.7 (least in league). The Liberty are also sacrificing better looks than the Aces; New York has allowed opponents a 45.5% field goal percentage during the playoffs while Las Vegas is only allowing a 37.9% field goal percentage in this time span.

A'ja Wilson has been putting up insane numbers during the playoffs (24.9 PPG, 11.3 RPG) and looks to have a clear path at securing the WNBA Finals MVP trophy.

Despite the fact that the Liberty has a solid group of players (including this year's MVP, Breanna Stewart), this series has proven the the 2023 Las Vegas Aces are a once-in-a-lifetime type of team.

In WNBA Finals history, a team has never won the first two games of the series by a margin of 13 points or more and not swept the series in Game 3. The 2020 Seattle Storm, 2014 Phoenix Mercury, 2013 and 2011 Minnesota Lynx all swept the Finals under these circumstances.

Las Vegas hasn't lost a game since August and nothing seems to be stopping them from bringing out the brooms on Sunday.

Chelsea Gray Over 15.5 Points (-113)

Even though A'ja Wilson has been the star of this Las Vegas Aces team, Chelsea Gray has put up great numbers in the playoffs and is a great candidate to clear their point total for Sunday.

In the regular season, Gray averaged 15.3 points per game. This number increased to 16.4 PPG in regular season games opposite the New York Liberty.

Gray is averaging 16.3 PPG in the playoffs and 17.0 PPG in this series. These averages are hovering right around where we want them, but more than this is the fact that Gray is averaging 36.1 minutes per game in the playoffs (and 37 minutes in this series).

In games this season where Gray has played 35-plus minutes, she is averaging 19.5 PPG.

Despite the fact that Gray has been great this series, she is only shooting 44.6% from the field while her season-average was 49.0%. I don't think we've seen Gray max out on points potential yet, and it seems the trend would produce a 16-plus point performance in Game 3.

A'ja Wilson Over 10.5 Rebounds (+102)

As mentioned, Wilson is the star of this year's playoffs, and I'd look for her to have a big night on the stat sheet in Game 3.

Wilson is averaging 11.3 RPG in the playoffs and 11.5 RPG in this series.

These numbers are elevated from her 9.5 RPG average in the regular season, but I think there's good reason why Wilson would follow up on her playoff numbers as opposed to her regular season numbers, especially when it comes to rebounds.

First, she's averaged 32.4 minutes per game despite lopsided results in the playoffs. That floor of playing time is the prerequisite to a rebounding over.

Secondarily, rebounds are a bit of a fickle stat. Certain rebounds are fought after and earned while other rebounds can be earned somewhat lackadaisically.

In particular, throw-away defensive rebounds that occur when half the players on the court are already running back to the other end can often be rewarded to whoever is in the general vicinity of the missed shot attempt, or simply, whoever wants the rebound the most.

Given that Wilson is clearly going for gold in this series, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of stat-padding on Sunday, and rebounds are the most reliable stat to pad.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.