WNBA Finals: Game 1 Betting Picks

The New York Liberty will visit the Las Vegas Aces for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals in what should be a competitive and captivating series.

The Liberty are looking to win their first title in franchise history, while the Aces are trying to follow up with a repeat after their dominant championship run from last year.

By the WNBA Finals odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the series is favored to go the distance, with +155 odds for a Game 5 -- which would be the first Game 5 since the 2019 finals.

Game 1 couldn't be more pivotal, so let's take a look at some of the best betting options on the board for Sunday's opener.

All WNBA Finals odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

WNBA Finals Game 1 Betting Picks

New York Liberty Moneyline (+172)

The Las Vegas Aces haven't lost a game since August -- they finished the season with a 34-6 record (highest winning percentage in WNBA since 2014) and boasted -250 odds to win the WNBA Championship before even clinching a finals spot.

All signs point to the Aces marching toward a two-peat, but despite their almost total preeminence, the team does have one Achilles heel - the New York Liberty.

In five matchups this season, the Liberty edged the Aces, posting a 3-2 record over Las Vegas. Regular-season outcomes are by no means the end-all and be-all come playoff time, but the fact that the Liberty were able to beat the Aces three times this season speaks volumes, especially when you take into account the rarity of a Vegas loss.

Not only have the Liberty defeated the Aces thrice, but they've done so handedly in those victories, winning by an average margin of 22 points.

In late July, Aces' star Candace Parker was ruled out indefinitely with a foot injury. Although Parker's absence hasn't reared its head in a major way -- the Aces have still been really good and A'ja Wilson's playoff stats (25.8 points per game, 11.2 rebounds per game) speak for itself -- this series could be where her loss is felt most.

Parker provides a veteran presence, ample championship experience, and holds the team's third-best Player Impact Estimate (PIE). Before her injury, she started one game this season opposite the Liberty. That game was an 18-point victory for the Aces, and Parker posted a +22 plus/minus (second-best) in it.

As mentioned, the games against the Liberty following Parker's injury did not go well for the Aces. While I'm under no pretense that Parker's absence will make or break the series for Las Vegas, it should have an impact.

In addition, New York has plenty of stud players -- including this year's MVP, Breanna Stewart, defensive star Jonquel Jones, and three-point specialist Sabrina Ionescu -- each of whom is capable of going toe-to-toe with the Aces' stars on Sunday.

There are a few reasons why taking the Liberty moneyline is a better option than the spread (+4.5).

In five matchups this season, either team won by an average of 19.2 points, while the lowest margin of victory was 9 points. Further, in the last 20 WNBA finals games, only three were decided by five or fewer points.

I think the Liberty are in a great position to win on Sunday, and with +172 outright odds on the moneyline, that's where I lean.

Under 172.5 Points (-106)

The five Aces-Liberty matchups averaged a total of 165.2 points this season, and the data suggests this trend will continue on Sunday.

The average game total for Liberty games this postseason has been 164.3 points, while the average playoff total for the Vegas games has been 157.6 points.

WNBA Finals Game 1s have, historically, been on the lower-scoring end of things. Over the last 10 seasons, the average game total for the first game in the championship series is 157.3 points.

There are a few possible causes for these low-scoring Game 1 affairs.

Teams typically see about a week of rest in between the last semifinal playoff game and the first game of the finals. This usually results in teams coming out hot on the defensive end in Game 1, given the severity and high-energy nature of the Finals. Meanwhile, shooting performances in the first half of games can often be a bit cold due to the extended time off.

Further, a team probably won't make it to the Finals if they aren't a solid defensive squad. That's definitely the case this year as the Liberty rank third in the league in defensive rating while the Aces rank first.

All five New York starters as well as four Las Vegas starters sit in the top 25 of defensive win shares.

Based on this, I think the total line is set too high for this matchup, making the under a solid choice for Sunday's game.

Looking for more WNBA betting opportunities? Check out all of the WNBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.