WNBA Betting Picks for Thursday 7/4/24

Annie Nader•@ANader33

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx

Under 154.5 (-112)

Thursday's two-game WNBA slate brings us a matchup between two of the top teams in the league, the Connecticut Sun (15-4) and Minnesota Lynx (14-5).

The Sun, who took the first round of this battle with an 83-82 overtime victory, come in as 2.5-point road 'dogs. Connecticut +2.5 (-112) is intriguing, but I'm most interested in targeting the under for this contest.

Minnesota and Connecticut play at the two slowest paces in the WNBA. Minnesota's average game total (in regulation) against bottom-three teams in pace stands at 146.0 points while Connecticut's games in this split average out at 138.3 points.

The Lynx and Sun also pose as the two top defenses in the league. The slowest-paced and best defensive teams in the league squaring off certainly sounds like grounds for targeting an under, and the market might not have made a bold enough adjustment in setting this over/under.

We touched on Minnesota and Connecticut's low game totals in slow-paced games, but the same holds true for competitions against great defenses.

The Lynx have played nine games against teams that rank in the top half of defensive rating. In this split, all but two games featured a 153.0 total or lower (in regulation) while the average game total came out to 146.7 points. The Sun have played seven games in this split, culminating in a 147.2-point average game total.

Minnesota is hitting the second-most three per game, but Connecticut is holding opponents to the fewest tries and makes from downtown. The Sun's offense is also shooting just 17.1 three-point attempts per game (second-fewest). It looks like we're in for a slow-paced battle that leans towards two-pointers and offensive sets in favor of threes and transition offense.

Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces

Mystics +15.5 (-108)

The Washington Mystics (5-15) have the most losses (tied) and the second-fewest wins in the WNBA, but underlying metrics wouldn't necessarily suggest that.

Washington owns a -4.3 net rating. For context, the Phoenix Mercury (9-10) hold a -4.2 net rating while the Indiana Fever (8-13) struggle with a -9.2 net rating. Equal or worse-rated teams have much better records than the Mystics, so a bit of bad luck and trouble finishing games has left Washington with a worse-than-should-be record.

This sentiment is made clear once we check out Washington's margin of losses as 13 of their 15 losses have been decided by 11 or fewer points, with their average margin of defeat coming in at 8.5 points.

The Mystics are keeping games close against the stiffest of competition, they just can't seem to get the W. While they are 2-12 against WNBA teams in current playoff standing, all but two of these losses were decided by 11 or fewer points and 8 out of 12 of these fumbles came down to 9 points or fewer.

When the Mystics head into a competition against the Las Vegas Aces (11-6) this Thursday, I expect them to keep the game within 15 points.

Washington forces 16.3 turnovers per game (fourth-most in the WNBA) and capitalizes on this by netting 16.7 points off of turnovers (fifth-most). Vegas runs at the fastest tempo, so they could feed into Washington's hand in this regard.

These teams met up last week and Vegas took home an 88-77 dub. Guards Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Tiffany Hayes went a combined 21-for-29 (72.4%) from the field for the Aces in that one. That's a pretty mind-boggling and unsustainable clip for a group of guards to shoot at, and Hayes is considered day-to-day with an injury prior to Thursday's meetup.

With all this in mind, I'll back the Mystics to cover a forgiving spread.

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Looking for more WNBA betting opportunities? Check out the WNBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.