NFL Win Totals: Will the Steelers Nab 9 Wins in 2024?

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
NFL Win Totals: Will the Steelers Nab 9 Wins in 2024?

Since losing their franchise quarterback to retirement, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a fringe playoff team for what seems like years on end.

The Steelers have pieced together a 9-7-1, 9-8, and 10-7 record across their last three seasons, and the market is expecting a similar fate this go-around.

Initially, Pittsburgh's win total for the upcoming 2024-2025 season was set at 7.5, but a flurry of Steeler-backers have since bet the line up to 8.5.

The rush to side with Pittsburgh was likely, in part, thanks to some big changes in their quarterback camp. The Kenny Pickett-era came to its inevitable conclusion, and Russell Wilson was brought in on a veteran's minimum contract.

New additions to the quarterback room didn't stop there. Pittsburgh acquired Justin Fields in a trade with the Chicago Bears, adding intrigue to how the offense will shake out this season.

FanDuel Sportsbook has NFL win totals available for each team. Will the Steelers fall on the right or wrong side of 8.5 wins this year? Let's investigate.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Win Total Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under 8.5 Wins

  • Over: +136
  • Under: -168

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +194
Odds to Win the AFC North: +750 (4th)
Odds to Win the AFC: +2500 (11th)
Super Bowl Odds: +5000 (20th)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Tom Arth replacing Mike Sullivan as Quarterbacks Coach
  • Zach Azzanni replacing Frisman Jackson as Wide Receivers Coach

Why Pittsburgh Could Win Over 8.5 Games

  • The quarterbacks surprise
  • Defense remains top-tier
  • Mike Tomlin has never been known to dip below .500

Bringing in a veteran Wilson in tandem with an unproven Fields might not be a screeching rally in favor of Pittsburgh, but there is credence to an anyone-but-Pickett adage.

In retrospect, the Steelers (18th pick in the NFL Draft) were not in a position to nab any of the six quarterbacks selected in the first round of this year's NFL Draft, and adding Wilson and Fields creates flexibility and upside.

Wilson is expected to be named a starter for Pittsburgh, and with him, he brings 12 years of NFL experience. His time with the Denver Broncos was unsuccessful, though he did rank ahead of Pickett in quarterback rating, passer rating, completion percentage, and threw 26 touchdown passes (ninth-most in NFL) last season.

With Wilson, the Steelers have improved at the QB position. Past him, Fields poses as a viable backup option. Although his three-year tenure with Chicago was cut short in favor of Caleb Williams, Fields is a skilled runner and young enough for us to still hold out hope for upside.

Pittsburgh's defense is their calling card. Last season, they held opponents to 19.1 points per game (sixth-fewest) and limited teams to the fifth-lowest red zone scoring percentage.

They ended the regular season with the ninth-ranked schedule-adjusted defense and return with the same core, including 2023 Pro-Bowlers T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also made a splash in free agency, inking Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen to a 3-year, $41-million deal.

Heading into his 18th season with the Steelers, Mike Tomlin touts a 173-100-2 record with the franchise. Under Tomlin, the Steelers have never gone below .500. They've notched at least 9 wins in each of the three seasons since the NFL expanded to a 17-game regular season, and Tomlin has exceeded 8.5 wins in 14 out of 17 seasons, missing by the hook thrice.

The defense is still daunting, the quarterback room went from bad to acceptable, and having Tomlin at the helm doesn't sound like a bad deal, either. Pittsburgh has the foundation to clear 8.5 wins, but their case is by no means a surefire one.

Why Pittsburgh Could Win Under 8.5 Games

  • The quarterback camp disappoints
  • Lack of offensive depth
  • Brutal schedule in a daunting AFC North division

It's probably safe to say that subbing out Pickett for Wilson and Fields was the best move for Pittsburgh, but there's no guarantee that a 35-year-old Wilson won't be dust, and the Steelers haven't surrounded him with the best support system.

In the offseason, they traded Diontae Johnson. Last year, Johnson ranked second in targets and yards and tied for the most touchdowns. Pittsburgh has since supplemented their receiving room with Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson, a pair of receivers who fell off the face of the depth chart for their respective teams in 2023.

Pittsburgh also selected Michigan standout Roman Wilson in the third round of the NFL Draft and will return with their main guy, George Pickens.

Beyond Pickens, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how the wide receiver room will fare. Watkins and Jefferson have exhibited low ceilings and harsh floors. It's easy to envision how this offense could be in trouble if Watkins, Jefferson, and the rookie Wilson aren't able to offer much.

The Steelers will also be working with a rookie center in Zach Frazier. Frazier was selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft and currently sits atop the depth chart. While Wilson isn't a bad signal-caller to pair with a young gun, we could see some growing pains here.

Above all, Pittsburgh's tough schedule might be what keeps them from notching over 8.5 wins. The AFC North features a trio of contenders in the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns, leaving the Steelers with the longest odds to claim the division (+750).

Pittsburgh's opponents for the upcoming season have a 9.09 average win total, which is the highest mark in the NFL. They're also one of just two teams that will draw a whopping seven top-8 opponents, while some teams will face as few as two such foes and 22 teams will draw four or fewer games in this split.

This schedule is not for the weak. Here's a look at who Pittsburgh will meet from Week 11 and on: Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Bengals. Ouch.

So long as the Steelers have a dominant first half, they have the fixings to exceed 8.5 wins, but the road will not be easy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.