WNBA Betting Picks for Friday 9/29/23

The second round of the WNBA playoffs continues tonight with a pair of Game 3s. The New York Liberty are visiting the Connecticut Sun and the Las Vegas Aces are at the Dallas Wings.

With so much on the line for these teams, let's take a look at some of the betting options for tonight's playoff matchups.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Betting Picks

New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun

Under 159.5 Points (-110)

The New York Liberty will visit the Connecticut Sun for Game 3 of a highly contested series that is 1-1 through two games, and I like the under for this game total for a few major reasons.

The Liberty-Sun matchup has proved to be a defensive battle. Connecticut hoists a 98.8 defensive rating (second in WNBA), while the Liberty is right there behind them at 99.4 (third).

Connecticut's defensive star, Alyssa Thomas, comes into the night with the fifth-most defensive win shares in the league, while Sun starting forward DeWanna Bonner and all five starting Liberty players place in the top-25 of defensive win shares.

Not only does each team boast major defensive studs, but the overall team defensive performance is there, too. The Liberty hold a league-best 47.6% opposition’s effective field goal percentage (OPP EFG), while the Sun hold a 48.6% OPP EFG (fourth-best). They rank similarly when it comes to fast break points allowed. Connecticut surrenders 8.2 fast break points per game (fewest), while New York allows 9.9 per game (third-fewest).

The stats, whether it be team or individual, prove that these two teams have thrived on defense, and I don’t foresee that stopping tonight considering the significance of this game.

In looking at the game total line, it seems to be set a bit too high: the average point total through two games of this series is 151.

Further, the Liberty gave up an average of 78.8 points per night this season, while the Sun gave up 72.8 points per game. Given that those numbers add up to 151.6 points per game (right in line with the total average for this series), it seems more likely than not that this game will turn out in the under’s favor.

Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings

Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (-110)

The Las Vegas Aces haven’t lost a game since August.

They are the most dominant team in the WNBA, and it’s not particularly close. As it stands, the Aces are -250 to win the WNBA championship, despite the fact that they have yet to even reach the finals. That could change tonight with a win against the Dallas Wings.

I have my eye on A'ja Wilson and the Aces to cover the spread and book an early trip to the Finals.

Not since the 2014 WNBA season (Phoenix Mercury) has a team boasted a higher regular-season winning percentage than the Aces did this year. Las Vegas is the WNBA equivalent to the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, at least as their winning percentages are concerned. The Aces finished the season with a 34-6 record, which pales in comparison to the Wings’ 22-18 regular-season mark.

The Aces lead the league -- and topped the Wings, for that matter -- in just about every major statistical category, including field goal percentage (FGP), offensive rating, defensive rating, and winning margin, all while clocking in with the league’s lowest turnover percentage.

Oddsmakers seem to agree that the Wings don’t stand a chance, as the Aces are -10000 to win this series.

The Aces are 5-1 on the season (including playoffs) against the Wings. The one loss came in an 80-78 final score where Wings players Crystal Dangerfield and Teaira McGowan put up better-than-normal shooting performances (both were 7-12 from the field; 58.3% FGP). McGowan averaged a 55.1% FGP this season, while Dangerfield averaged a 42.5% FGP.

Further, that Aces defeat saw one of the worst A’ja Wilson performances of the year -- she shot 38.5% from the field, as opposed to her season-average 55.7% FGP and 62.2% playoff FGP.

If a poor Wilson performance is what it takes for the Wings to compete against the Aces, then they might as well start packing their bags now. Wilson has been on an absolute tear these playoffs, averaging a stunning 29.0 points per game and a whopping plus-22.8 plus/minus ratio.

The Aces are more than capable of defeating the Wings tonight, but can they cover the spread?

History shows that this won’t be a difficult task for Las Vegas. In five games against the Wings, the Aces boast an average winning margin of 12.2 points. In this series alone, they gloat a 10.5-point winning margin and a whopping 17.8-point overall winning margin in the playoffs.

When the fourth quarter commences, I expect the Aces to have a decent lead on the Wings, but I also expect the Wings to resort to intentional fouling to keep their dreary playoff hopes alive. Luckily for Aces’ fans and Aces bettors, Vegas leads the league in free-throw percentage at 84.0%. If the Wings want to rely on last-ditch three-point attempts to keep the game alive, they are sorely out of luck. Dallas holds a league-worst 31.7% three-point percentage.

In my eyes, all signs point to the Aces defeating the Wings comfortably tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.