WNBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 9/19/23

The first round of the WNBA playoffs continues tonight, with the Washington Mystics visiting the New York Liberty, and the Atlanta Dream visiting the Dallas Wings for Game 2 of their respective series.

With much on the line for these teams, let's take a look at some of the betting options for tonight's playoff matchups.

Which WNBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Washington Mystics at New York Liberty

Over 162.5 Points (-112)

The Washington Mystics will visit the New York Liberty for Game 2 of the WNBA playoffs first round. With their season on the line, the Mystics will look to win an upset in New York, though the numbers are not on their side. Going into the night, the Mystics are given 10.5 points, and their series odds sit at +920.

Despite New York’s dominance in Game 1, they split the regular season series against Washington, going 2-2, including a close overtime win that was decided by a point. Though the Mystics have shown they are capable of competing with the Eastern Conference favorites, their -0.4 net rating pales in comparison to New York’s 10.3 net rating (2nd in the WNBA). This, paired with New York’s league-best 17-3 second-half record, gives credence to tonight’s spread, which I am avoiding.

Instead, I’m targeting the over for this matchup. Washington finished the regular season averaging 80.5 points per game and giving up 90.0 points per game. New York, meanwhile, averaged 89.2 points per game, and only let up 75.0 points per game. Although regular season team total averages by no means directly translate to what we may see for a total in tonight’s playoff battle, it is worth noting that both teams played in games that, on average, went over the total for tonight's game.

As aforementioned, the Liberty and the Mystics faced off four times in the regular season, posting up a whopping 170.5 average game total. It should be noted that one of these games went into overtime, which, of course, inflates the average game total. Despite this, the New York versus Washington matchup this season still averaged a 165.3 point end-of-regulation total.

Dratings projects 165.1 total points for Game 2, and we could also see an inflated fourth-quarter free-throw score should the Mystics use the bonus as a last-ditch effort to save their season, putting over-bettors in an advantageous spot for tonight.

Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 Points (+100)

While we’re all aboard the overs train, I’d look to Sabrina Ionescu to continue her hot streak and put up big numbers tonight. Ionescu scored a playoff career-high 29 points in Game 1, including 7 made three-pointers. She’s been lights-out behind the arc this season, averaging a 44.8 3P%. Though we can’t necessarily rely on her to live up to this career-best performance again tonight, we can expect her to shoot the three-ball early and often, giving ample opportunity for her to score.

Ionescu has scored 19-plus points in five of her last six games in which she played at least 30 minutes. Given the playoff status of this game, we can expect her to hit this 30-minute mark, barring any major blowouts or injuries.

The Washington defense hasn’t quite figured out how to guard Ionescu. Not only did she light them up on the offensive end in Game 1, but she also averaged 21.3 points per game against the Mystics in the regular season.

Naturally, this increase in points comes from an increase in field-goal attempts. The former #1 overall draft pick averaged 14.5 FGA per game against Washington this season as opposed to her overall season average of 12.8 FGA. This is, in part, due to Washington’s killer paint defense. They only give up 33.2 points in the paint per game (2nd), creating extra looks from outside for Ionescu. Further, Washington ranks second-to-last in giving up 3PA to opposing teams, so keep your eye on Ionescu to be the player who squashes the Mystic's season tonight.

Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings

Dallas Wings -6.5 (-110)

With their season in limbo, the Atlanta Dream visit the Dallas Wings tonight for a win-or-go-home game. They are given 6.5 points in tonight's matchup, but I like Dallas as an option to cover the spread.

Dallas finished their season with a 22-18 record, leaving them at the four-seed in the playoffs. Atlanta’s year was not so dissimilar, finishing the season with a 19-21 record and entering the night as the five-seed. Despite their analogous standings, Dallas has proven they are the better team. They beat Atlanta in all three regular-season matchups, with winning margins of 7, 12, and 17, respectively. The Wings’ 12-point win in Game 1 leaves them with an average winning margin of 12 points against the Dream this year.

Though winning margins aren’t the end-all-be-all (in fact, they can be quite misleading at times), there is plenty of statistical evidence to show why Dallas has dominated Atlanta so handily. In looking at the major variables that lead a WNBA team to success, Dallas sweeps Atlanta. The Wings posted a 49.9% effective field goal percentage, 36.9% offensive rebound percentage, 16.7% turnover rate, 106.9 offensive rating, and 3.5 net rating this season. The Dream, meanwhile put up a 47.5% effective field goal percentage, 28.3% offensive rebound percentage, 17.6% turnover rate, 99.7 offensive rating, and -1.8 net rating.

Given the sudden-death nature of this game for Atlanta, we could see them employ intentional fouling in the fourth quarter to reclaim possession of the ball. The Dallas roster has a decent 80.6 FT%, while star guard and likely inbound receiver Arike Ogunbowale boasts an 87.6 FT%, meaning the potential for free throws in the final minutes could help Dallas’ chances at covering the spread.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 22.5 Points (+100)

Speaking of Arike Ogunbowale, she’s my pick to put up some major points for the Wings tonight. The former Notre Dame stud struggled from beyond the arc in Game 1, only hitting one three-pointer off of six attempts. Even still, she managed to score 24 points in Dallas’ 94-82 victory over Atlanta on Friday.

In three games against the Dream this season, Ogunbowale averaged 26.7 points, as opposed to her season average of 21.2 points per game. This comes even with Atlanta having a solid defense in the paint, only giving up 35.2 points per game (4th in WNBA) in this area. Luckily for Ogunbowale, she shoots 5.5 FGA per game from 20-24 feet away from the basket, her highest area of usage on the court.

And as mentioned, Ogunbowale could be in for additional free throw attempts should Atlanta turn to intentional fouling late in the game. Either way, her proven success against the Dream defense puts her in a great position to score tonight.

Looking for more WNBA betting opportunities? Check out all of the WNBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.