WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Tuesday 10/1/24

The WNBA postseason is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

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WNBA Best Bets

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty

Aces Moneyline (+164)

The New York Liberty beat the Las Vegas Aces by a score of 87-77 in Game 1 of the WNBA semifinals, but these +164 moneyline odds are enticing enough to make me back Vegas in Game 2.

New York has been the best team all season and seems destined to hoist their first championship trophy in franchise history. The team's -130 WNBA championship odds speak to that, but the reigning back-to-back champs won't make this series easy on them.

The Aces owned a 106.1 offensive rating (second-best) this season and a 94.2 defensive rating (third-best) in the second half of the year, outdoing the Liberty in the latter category.

In Game 1, the Liberty shot 50.0% from the field, 42.1% from the three-point line, and gained a lead as large as 18 points. This speaks to just how well-rounded New York is and their long-standing ability to make runs can be brutal for opponents. But the Aces are skilled in this same area -- 74.0% of Vegas' victories this season were won by double-digits. New York won 62.5% of their games by double-digits.

The Aces went on a 12-0 run in the third quarter of Game 1 but were ultimately defeated after going 7-for-25 (28.0%) from behind the arc despite shooting at the fourth-best clip in the regular season. Guards Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Tiffany Hayes went a combined 2-for-12 from three-point land. Positive and negative shooting regression could be inbound for both teams, and we should expect Hayes to contribute more offense off the bench. She added 20 points in Vegas' first playoff game and is the frontrunner to win WNBA Sixth Player of the Year for a reason.

Las Vegas beat New York 3-1 in last year's WNBA Finals, including one win on the Liberty's home court. If the Aces lose tonight's game, they'll put their season in a sudden-death scenario. They have the MVP -- A'ja Wilson -- on their side and also boast ultimate championship pedigree, one that will be focused on stopping New York's runs tonight.

These +164 odds imply just a 37.8% win probability. Knocking down the Liberty on their home court is no easy task, but I see some value in backing an Aces team that won't quit.

A'ja Wilson Over 33.5 Pts + Reb (-114)

A Vegas victory is hinged upon A'ja Wilson, so let's look for her to notch over 33.5 combined points and rebounds (PR) tonight.

Wilson averaged a stampeding 38.8 PR in the regular season. She exceeded 33.5 in 29 out of 38 games (76.3% of contests), but these -114 odds imply just a 53.2% probability.

The playoffs are obviously a different breed. These games typically bring on slower paces and plenty of defensive attention is afforded to Wilson.

However, pace isn't a huge issue here. Game 1 was the fourth-fastest contest among the 10 playoff games this postseason. In last year's Finals, these teams played at a tempo that was nearly identical to the regular-season league average. Wilson averaged 33.75 PR in that series, recording 40 and 41 PR in two of the contests.

This postseason, she logged 29 PR in her first playoff game, 37 PR in the second, and was limited to just 21 points and 6 rebounds in Game 1 versus New York. The boards will come for Wilson, who set a WNBA regular-season record for rebounds this season. I imagine that will be something the Aces key in on tonight after grabbing just two offensive boards in Game 1.

I'm also expecting Wilson to fight for looks in the paint. She shot just four free-throw attempts in Game 1, and the Liberty shot eight more free-throw attempts than the Aces. Vegas will want to beat them in that category tonight, both for the obvious reason of points and the kicker of potentially forcing Breanna Stewart or Jonquel Jones into foul trouble.

Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx

Sun +4.5 (-108)

Full disclosure: I like the Minnesota Lynx tonight. Maybe I can't get off the fact that they went 14-2 in the second half of the season and Naphessa Collier scored 42 and 38 points in Round 1 of the playoffs. This team is really, really good, and it's hard to imagine them dropping back-to-back playoff games at home.

However, Minnesota's -205 moneyline odds imply a 67.2% win probability, which feels a bit off when considering how legit the Connecticut Sun have been. The Sun have the best defensive rating in the league and play at the slowest pace, which usually helps them stay in games. In turn, I think the best value bet for Game 2 is Sun +4.5.

Connecticut won Game 1 by a score of 73-70. Somehow, they shot just three free-throw attempts in that one while the Lynx attempted 13. It's pretty exciting that they prevailed with a win despite this circumstance.

Connecticut's largest lead in that game was nine points while Minnesota's was six. We saw a similar back-and-forth phenomenon when these two tangled in the regular season. The Sun went 2-1 versus the Lynx in the regular season. Their two wins were decided by one and five points while their loss was decided by two points.

Perhaps most intriguing is Connecticut's ability to keep Collier in check. They afforded her just 19 points in Game 1 after she averaged 40 points in the first round. Brionna Jones, Alyssa Thomas, Dijonai Carrington, and DeWanna Bonner all ranked in the top 15 of defensive rating this season.

The mid-season addition of Marina Mabrey has been as fruitful as can be. She's averaging 21.3 points and 4.7 three-point makes via a 42.4% three-point percentage through three playoff games.

I think this one comes down to the wire and presents Connecticut an opportunity to cover.

Looking for more WNBA betting opportunities? Check out the WNBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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