WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday 9/5/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Seattle Storm at New York Liberty

Storm +8.0 (-110)

I've never been particularly high on the Seattle Storm (20-13), and the New York Liberty (27-6) have proved they are the team to beat in 2024.

With that said, this 8.0-point spread is awfully forgiving to Seattle, so that's the bet I'll back for this game.

New York comes in with a +12.2 net rating (first) while Seattle enters with a +5.5 rating (fifth). The Liberty have been unreal at Barclays Center with a 14-2 record, but we aren't asking them to drop this game -- we just need Seattle to keep it within eight points.

The Liberty are 4-7 against this spread versus the league's top five teams. Seattle, meanwhile, is 5-1 against this spread in this split since June 23rd.

We know all about what Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones have been doing for the Liberty. But Seattle's starting five of Skylar Diggins-Smith, Jewel Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike, Ezi Magbebor, and new addition Gabby Williams is pretty scary, too.

It took a few ugly games for Williams to get acclimated to this team, but she's off the heels of a 5-for-8 shooting night in a huge upset win over the Connecticut Sun. Either Loyd or Ogwumike can go off at a moment's notice, and Seattle's stellar 95.9 defensive rating ranks just a bit behind New York's 94.9 rating.

MasseyRatings gives New York a seven-point edge while DRatings predicts the Liberty to secure just a five-point victory. As dominant as the home team has been, it seems apt to back Seattle when handed a cushy eight points.

Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury

Stefanie Dolson Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (-122)

Stefanie Dolson is averaging 15.4 combined points and rebounds (PR) for the Washington Mystics and has exceeded 14.5 PR in 17 out of 32 games (53.1% of contests). These -122 odds offer us a 54.9% probability, nearly in check with Dolson's season-long hit rate at the line.

However, a key injury for Washington puts Dolson in an awesome spot to make an impact tonight. Shakira Austin, Washington's starting center, is out this evening due to an ankle injury. Since June 7th, Austin has missed 18 games for the Mystics. We have a pretty hefty sample for what Dolson can do in her absence, and the results should have us bullish on the over here.

In that 18-game, Austin-less span, Dolson is averaging a meaty 17.9 PR per game. Further, she exceeded 14.5 PR in 12 out of these 18 games, good for a 66.6% lean to the over.

A date with the Phoenix Mercury helps her case even more. Phoenix lets up the fourth-most points and the most rebounds per game. The team is also surrendering the most three-point attempts in the W.

Dolson, despite a 6-foot-5 height that would speak otherwise, nets a whopping 60.4% of her points from behind the arc. She's also shooting threes at a head-turning 49.3% clip, which, as you could probably guess, leads the WNBA.

Natasha Cloud Over 15.5 Pts + Ast (-130)

Natasha Cloud was hit with a one-game suspension after reaching the WNBA's technical foul limit. She'll be back with her team tonight and should be ready to exploit an unintimidating Washington defense.

On the season, Cloud is netting 18.4 combined points and assists (PA) per game. She has eclipsed 15.5 PA in 19 out of 32 games (59.4% of contests), so we're getting a fair shake on these -130 odds, which imply only a 56.5% probability.

The Mystics cede the league's second-most points and second-most assists to opposing guards. The only team to outdo them in each of these categories is this very Phoenix group.

The Mercury own an exciting 86.5 implied team total in this one. Phoenix's starting point guard should have no problem racking up assists, particularly since Washington lets up the third-most threes per game, while Phoenix assists on 85.4% of their threes.

For what it's worth, Cloud dominated the Mystics in both of their prior meetings this season. She notched 24 PA in their first matchup and mustered 22 PA in their most recent meeting.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.