Wimbledon Women's Semifinals Betting Picks: Thursday 7/11/24

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is underway and into the second week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the fortnight, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Wimbledon Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value on Thursday.

Wimbledon Best Bets

Donna Vekic vs. Jasmine Paolini

Over 22.5 Match Games (-106)

Jasmine Paolini continues to enjoy what has easily been the best season of her career, and she's saved some of her best performances for the Grand Slams.

Paolini began the year by advancing to the fourth round of the Australian Open -- the first time she had ever made it past the second round in a major -- and then she blew that career-best out of the water by going all the way to the finals at the French Open. While the French Open trophy ultimately eluded her, she's now one win away from making her second straight major final.

With all this coming at age 28, her leap into the top 10 has been that much more improbable, and keep in mind that she hadn't won any Wimbledon matches before this year. Despite that, she's dropped just one set in this tournament.

All of this makes Paolini's staying power difficult to predict -- but her opponent wasn't expected to be in the semis, either.

Donna Vekic is also 28 years old, and coming into the event ranked 37th with a middling 17-14 record in 2024 probably didn't have her on anyone's radar. Yet she was a finalist at Bad Homburg in her last grass tune-up event, and according to Tennis Abstract, she has a solid career 62.7% win rate on grass, her best surface.

While this is Vekic's first major semifinal, she was a quarterfinalist at the 2019 US Open and 2023 Australian Open, so she isn't completely out of her element to make it this far.

Vekic has needed to survive a deciding third set in four of her five Wimbledon matches, yet she's won 80% of her first-serve points and has consistently given herself break-point opportunities.

With both players performing at a high level, picking this match to go over 22.5 games feels like the best option. Although Paolini has lost just one set, she's gone to a tie-break three times and also has a 7-5 set. Meanwhile, Vekic's frequent three-setters further back the notion that this should go the distance.

Tennis Abstract forecasts Vekic to have a 60% win probability, while Massey Ratings backs Paolini at 68%. That split is another sign that we could have a lengthy match.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Elena Rybakina

Rybakina -4.5 Games (-128)

Elena Rybakina has practically coasted into these semifinals, dropping one set across her five Wimbledon matches, and it seems like she's gotten only stronger as she's advanced deeper into the tournament.

Rybakina completely obliterated former Grand Slam winner Caroline Wozniacki 6-0, 6-1 in the third round, and after benefiting from a fourth-round retirement, she then breezed past world No. 21 Elina Svitolina 6-3, 6-2. The world No. 4 has won 82% of her first-serve points here and has the most aces (31) of the four semifinalists.

With all the other top pre-tournament contenders eliminated, Rybakina is now -185 to win Wimbledon, and she won this event just a couple of years ago in 2022.

Barbora Krejcikova came into the tournament with a shaky 7-9 record, making her perhaps the most surprising semifinalist, but she has seemingly found her form at the right time following straight-set wins over Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko, both players ranked inside the top 15 who were performing well.

However, defeating an in-form Rybakina will be a tall order. Per Tennis Abstract, Rybakina owns the WTA's second-best surface-blended Elo rating on grass, and their model projects her to win this match 84% of the time. Massey Ratings also predicts an 84% win probability.

While Krejcikova does own a 2-0 head-to-head record against Rybakina, those matches happened in 2022 and 2021 before Rybakina was a mainstay in the top 10. We should expect Elena to cover this spread and advance to her second Wimbledon final in three years.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.