Wimbledon Women's Final Betting Picks: Saturday 7/13/24

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is underway and into the second week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the fortnight, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Wimbledon Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the women's final on Saturday.

Wimbledon Best Bets

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini

Over 22.5 Total Match Games (-112)

In a women's final that no one saw coming before the tournament, world No. 32 Barbora Krejcikova will take on World No. 7 Jasmine Paolini.

Despite the gap in ranking, it's actually Krejcikova who comes in as the slight moneyline favorite (-137) after taking out three straight top-15 players in Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko, and Elena Rybakina. Defeating Rybakina was especially impressive, as the world No. 4 entered the semifinals as a -185 favorite to win the title and was the Wimbledon champion in 2022.

This is an incredible turnaround for Krejcikova, who has struggled with injuries this year and entered the event with a 7-9 record, at one point losing five matches in a row. But it's not like the 28-year-old didn't come in with strong credentials, winning the French Open in 2021 and achieving a career-high world No. 2 ranking in 2022.

Meanwhile, there's no question that this is the best tennis campaign of Paolini's career, cracking the top 10 for the time and now making back-to-back major finals after a runner-up finish at the French Open. Including that run at Roland-Garros, she's now won 14 of her last 16 matches.

It's worth remembering that prior to this season, the 28-year-old had never advanced past even the second round of a major, showing what a shocker her 2024 breakthrough has been.

While Paolini's had a slightly easier path to the final, she played a strong match against world No. 13 Madison Keys (who retired with the score tied 5-5 in the third set) and dominated world No. 17 Emma Navarro 6-2, 6-1 in the quarterfinals.

Given that neither player was expected to be left standing at the end, it isn't surprising that models are split on who will be the victor. Tennis Abstract projects a 54% win probability for Krejcikova, whereas Massey Ratings favors Paolini at 56%.

Therefore, my lean is for this match to be competitive and go over 22.5 total match games. Excluding a retirement, four out of five Krejcikova matches have gone over this number, and the other came just short at 21 games. For Paolini, she's gone over 22.5 in two of the last three matches, and while she didn't over it in the first three rounds, she had a 7-6 or 7-5 set in all three.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.