Wimbledon Men's Semifinals Betting Picks: Friday 7/12/24

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is underway and into the second week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the fortnight, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Wimbledon Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value on Friday.

Wimbledon Best Bets

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Over 39.5 Match Games (-112)

Many were hoping for another chapter in the growing rivalry between Jannick Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in these semifinals, but Daniil Medvedev had other ideas, knocking off Sinner in the quarterfinals. Although Sinner didn't appear to be 100% in that match, it was still a grueling five-setter that would ultimately go four hours.

Medvedev is more than a suitable replacement, though, as we're getting a battle of top-five players and a rematch of last year's Wimbledon semifinal between him and Alcaraz.

Although Alcaraz won that match routinely in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-3) and owns a 4-2 head-to-head record over Medvedev, the latter's upset over Sinner -- even if the world No. 1 was a bit hobbled -- is a promising sign that this match will be more competitive.

Additionally, it's not like Alcaraz has cruised into these semis without some adversity. He went to a tie-break in the opening set of his first two matches, and he's since gone five sets versus Frances Tiafoe and then four sets against Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul.

In this tournament, Medvedev has actually held the statistical edge over Alcaraz in several categories, including first-serve points won (76% to 72%), service games won (90% to 82%), and return games won (78% to 67%).

Still, it's hard to back Medvedev to pull off the upset on this surface. Tennis Abstract projects a 69% win probability for Alcaraz, and Massey Ratings sees it as 71%.

But asking Medvedev to win a set and clear 39.5 games isn't outlandish, and we're pretty much guaranteed an over if this goes to a fifth set. Alcaraz's last three matches have gone 51, 38, and 38 games while Medvedev's last three complete matches (his opponent retired in the fourth round) have logged 48, 39, and 53 games.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

Djokovic 3-0 Sets (-115)

Novak Djokovic will be nice and rested for this match after Alex de Minaur was forced to withdraw due to injury ahead of their quarterfinal match, effectively giving Djokovic a mid-tournament bye heading into the semis.

Djokovic looks to be at or close to the peak of his powers again after steamrolling 15th-ranked Holger Rune 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the fourth round. Across his four matches, he's won 83% of his first-serve points in the tournament -- easily the best mark among the four semifinalists -- and his opponents have combined for just 10 break point chances, with only three of them being converted.

The crowd is unlikely to be on Novak's side after he mocked Rune supporters in a bizarre post-match interview, but chances are he'll relish playing the villain role against Lorenzo Musetti, an opponent he typically hasn't had much trouble against.

Musetti, a first-time major semifinalist, is 1-5 against Djokovic, and while the two did go five sets in their most recent meeting at this year's French Open, duplicating that effort against an in-form Djokovic on grass will be extremely difficult.

Further, Musetti has needed to survive a ton of court time to get here, going four or five sets in every match. While Djokovic has played roughly 10 hours -- due in part to the walkover -- Musetti is already closer to 16 hours.

Tennis Abstract forecasts Novak winning 88% of the time, and Massey Ratings is even more bullish at 92%. This looks like a solid price to back Djokovic to win in straight sets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.