Wimbledon Betting Guide: Thursday 7/6/23

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon has gotten underway this week. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The action continues on Thursday morning. Which matchups offer the most value on Day 4?

Andrey Rublev vs. Aslan Karatsev

Andrey Rublev 3-0 Sets (+135)
Andrey Rublev -5.5 Games (-110)

The main story so far in this tournament has no doubt been the poor weather, which has led to many matches getting suspended or postponed. Some unlucky players haven't even played their opening match yet, whereas others are already into the third round.

Originally scheduled for Wednesday, this second-round match features fellow Russians Andrey Rublev and Aslan Karatsev, and oddsmakers are pretty confident in how this one will turn out, listing Rublev as a -500 favorite. While there clearly isn't much value in betting that number, backing the World No. 7 to win in straight sets or cover the 5.5-game spread is intriguing.

Rublev is in good form right now, most recently finishing as the runner-up at Halle, which included wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Tallon Griekspoor, both of whom are seeded players at this year's Wimbledon. He also won his first-round match over Max Purcell in straight sets (6-3, 7-5, 6-4). Overall, Rublev has proven to be capable on grass over his career (68.2% win percentage), too.

On the other hand, Karatsev didn't do much in his grass tune-up tournaments at Stuttgart and Halle, going just 1-2 in three matches (2-3 if we include qualifying), and he only made it into the main draw at Halle as a "lucky loser" because Nick Kyrgios had to withdraw. The 29-year-old has had little career experience or success on this surface, owning just a 3-6 grass record in ATP-level matches.

This calendar year, Karatsev has posted a .500 record across all surfaces, a far cry from Rublev's 70.5% win percentage over that span. While Karatsev did defeat Rublev in their lone head-to-head, that match was back in 2021 on hard courts, so it's difficult to read too much into it.

Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Rublev wins this matchup 89.4% of the time on grass. We should feel fairly confident that Rublev will win this one comfortably.

Andy Murray vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas Moneyline (+125)

While I understand the reasoning behind Stefanos Tsitsipas being an underdog, getting the World No. 5 at plus money against a guy 12 years his senior with a "metal hip" feels too good to pass up.

Admittedly, Tsitsipas didn't exactly light it up in his grass matches entering Wimbledon, winning just one of four, and his 54.8% career win percentage on grass makes it easily his worst surface. He also had to wrap up a five-set thriller against Dominic Thiem on Wednesday just to get to this point, so Andy Murray will have a distinct rest advantage. Not only did Murray win his first-round match in straight sets, but that victory came on Tuesday, so he was one of the lucky ones who actually got to enjoy his scheduled day off in between.

There's no doubt that even this older version of Murray is still a tough out in Grand Slams, as he ground out a pair of five-set wins earlier this year at the Australian Open. He'll also have the crowd firmly in his corner, something he should thrive off of.

But the reality is that most of Murray's 2023 success has come against lesser competition in Challenger events, as he's just 8-9 in ATP-level matches. In fact, prior to his first-round win, Murray had lost six straight ATP-level matches.

Meanwhile, as Tsitsipas' ranking would suggest, he's generally been crushing it this year, amassing a 32-12 record (72.7% win percentage), which includes a run to the final at the Australian Open and a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open.

Ultimately, while Murray figures to push Tsitsipas in this matchup, this just feels like a good chance to buy low on the younger and -- at this point in their careers -- more talented player.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.