Few players have accomplished as much as Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle through the first two seasons of their careers. The former sixth-overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft has more than lived up to expectations since entering the league, topping 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two NFL campaigns.

Fantasy drafters have been more than aware of his talent in those years, and according to FantasyPros average draft position (ADP) data he is now a borderline second-round pick in fantasy drafts for the 2023 season. He is coming off boards with the 24th pick on average, making him the WR11 on average heading into the fall.

The early rounds of fantasy drafts are where managers focus in on top-notch production and guaranteed workloads. Waddle has proven that he's an up-and-coming talent in the NFL, but he is one of the few early-round players in fantasy drafts that can't claim to be his NFL team's top option. Can he continue meeting fantasy managers' ever-escalating expectations as he vies for opportunities across from teammate Tyreek Hill?

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Projections

All projections via numberFire.com

Positional Ranking: WR10

2023 Projected Stats:

• 139.9 targets
• 87 receptions
• 1,280 receiving yards
• 7.8 receiving touchdowns

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook

Extreme Versatility

Playing beside a target-hog like Tyreek Hill could be a detriment to many players' production, but Waddle's ability to produce in seemingly any situation sets him apart from many of the league's other WR2s.

Waddle was an incredibly explosive playmaker at Alabama, averaging an absurd 18.9 yards per reception in his career there. Last year, while playing with Hill, Waddle leveraged that capacity to produce with elite efficiency into 1,356 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 75 receptions. His 18.1 yards per reception ranked first in the entire NFL, showing just how directly his explosive playmaking translated from the college game to the bigs.

The 2021 Dolphins used a rookie Waddle as an extension of their run game. Instead of leaning into sub-par running backs like Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson, they opted to utilize Waddle as a high-volume receiver close to the line of scrimmage. His 9.8 yards per reception that year were a massive outlier compared to his previous seasons, but even he still managed to put up over 1,000 receiving yards on over 100 receptions that year.

Essentially, through just two seasons we've seen Waddle produce in two wildly different ways. That means that no matter what defenses throw at the Dolphins in 2023, Waddle's versatile skillset should help him adjust and continue producing like one of the game's most exciting young talents.

A Surprisingly "Safe" Floor

The Dolphins' 2022 campaign was very much a tale of two seasons. In the first half of the season, they were setting the league ablaze with hyper-efficient football. Third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was leading the league in adjusted yards per attempt, Hill was on pace to rival Calvin Johnson's receiving record, and Waddle was having an incredibly exciting start himself with 342 receiving yards in the first 3 weeks of the season.

Things changed after Tagovailoa's head injuries, though, and as NFL teams adjusted to Miami's high-flying aerial game. It's tough to pinpoint just one thing as the biggest reason for Miami's slower end to the season, but Waddle kept pace with Hill even as the wheels fell off for the team. Over the last five games of the season, Waddle's 384 receiving yards led Hill's 331 receiving yards while catching 5 fewer passes (18) than Hill did (23). Both receivers put up 2 touchdowns in that time span as well.

The purpose of pointing this out is to show that Waddle doesn't get completely phased out of the offense when things go south for the Dolphins. Whereas teams like the Cincinnati Bengals lean more heavily into stars Ja'Marr Chase at the expense of guys like Tee Higgins when the going gets tough, Waddle still managed to keep himself on par with Hill as the Dolphins' 2023 campaign came crashing to a halt.

We can hope that Tagovailoa plays a full and healthy season this year, but we can take some comfort in knowing that Waddle's fantasy production should remain relatively safe even if something happens to the team's QB1. And if teams really did figure out a way to combat the high-powered offense Miami showcased in the first half of the year, we can still feel confident in Waddle holding his own while competing for targets with Hill.

Untapped Upside

We've already seen Waddle put up top-notch numbers in two wildly different roles, but are we sure Waddle has reached his ceiling in the NFL yet?

While we showed that Waddle was able to produce despite playing alongside Hill, the Dolphins still gave Hill more favorable looks than Waddle at times last year. Hill's 71 targets while running routes from the slot ranked fifth in the entire league last year. By comparison, Waddle's 37 targets from the slot ranked 32nd-most in the league. We can't fault the Dolphins for designing more looks for Tyreek Hill than Jaylen Waddle last year, but there's a case to be made that Waddle deserves more opportunities in that role in 2023.

Among all qualifying wide receivers, only Justin Jefferson had more yards per route run from the slot than Waddle's 3.05 YPRR mark last year. Hill was no slouch either at an impressive 2.58 mark, but Waddle's elite efficiency in that area indicates that we haven't yet seen his ceiling in the NFL. It's obviously not everything, but if you are an offensive coordinator and have a wide receiver that can do something as well as Justin Jefferson, you should let your wide receiver do that more often.

So what does his ceiling look like? We've already seen him operate as a 100-target chain-moving receiver as a rookie, and we saw him produce with absurd efficiency last year. If we get a season where he combines those two methods of production, the overall fantasy WR1 could genuinely be in Waddle's range of outcomes.

Waddle's top-24 ADP in fantasy drafts this summer is a steep price to pay, and on paper that can look like a lot for an NFL team's presumed WR2. But Waddle is still entering just his third season in the league and has already showcased an ability to keep up with the game's top talents. He has a truly rare skillset and could find himself at the top of the fantasy leaderboards by the end of the season.

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