Will Aaron Judge Win the AL Triple Crown in 2025?

After winning American League MVP in two of the last three seasons, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees currently boasts -20000 odds to win American League MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook. Somehow, someway, Judge just keeps improving.

As if last season's .322/.458/.701 slash line paired with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs wasn't good enough, Judge currently sports an absurd .391/.485/.764 slash line while already holding 21 dingers and 50 RBIs in 58 games to start the 2025 season. Judge listed a runaway favorite to win AL MVP is far from a surprise.

Judge could have his eyes set on even higher goals. Miguel Cabrera was the last player to win the Triple Crown in 2012, and he was the first to pull off the feast since 1967. The Yankees' superstar outfielder has been knocking on the door of the Triple Crown. Judge led MLB in home runs and RBIs a season ago, but his .322 batting average fell behind Bobby Witt Jr.'s league-best .332 average.

Will 2025 be the season for Judge to join elite company with a Triple Crown? He's leading baseball in batting average while sitting only two home runs and RBIs behind the league-leader of these categories. Let's break down his chances.

Can Aaron Judge Win the 2025 AL Triple Crown?

There's no question about Judge's chances of leading the league in batting average right now. His .391 mark has a solid cushion over Freddie Freeman's second-highest mark of .365. FanDuel Sportsbook is even offering odds for Judge to have a batting average north of .400; this includes at the All-Star break (+1600) and the entire season (+8000).

Considering the long odds, we should expect regression as Judge's current mark would be the highest batting average in a season since Tony Gwynn raking to the tune of .394 in 1994. Post-1900, only 13 batters have reached a .400 for a season, and all 13 marks were recorded between 1901 and 1941. Judge reaching .400 is just something we shouldn't expect, but he's not unfamiliar to setting records. For example, he reached base 126 times before June this season, which is the highest mark since 1900.

If there's a category that could keep Judge back from a Triple Crown, it's likely his batting average -- similar to last season. Hitting a blistering .391 is the most encouraging news for Judge to pull off a Triple Crown. In 2023, he batted only .267, and this spiked to .322 last season. Whose to say he won't dramatically improve this mark yet again?

We know Judge has the chops when it comes to smacking homers and driving in runs. In fact, he led the league in homers in two of the past three seasons while totaling at least 58 big flies in each season. He also led MLB in RBIs in each of those seasons, racking up at least 131 RBIs in each campaign. The 2023 season is the only outlier since 2022, for Judge totaled only 37 homers and 75 RBIs. This was due to injuries as he played in only 106 games compared to 157 and 158 in the 2022 and 2024 seasons.

He's currently on pace to reach about 59 home runs and 140 RBIs, and this is assuming he plays the remaining 104 regular-season games. Each mark would be right around his league-leading marks from 2022 and 2024. Advanced stats yield even more confidence.

MLB Savant ranks Judge in the 100th percentile of xSLG, 99th percentiles of average exit velocity and barrel percentage, and 98th percentiles of hard-hit rate and bat speed. According to FanGraphs, he boasts a 30.0% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB), which has been at least 30.0% in every Judge season since 2022. Focusing on his RBI potential, Judge has a .450 batting average when men are in scoring position, which is far ahead of his RBI-leading seasons (.346 and .336, respectively).

Everything about Judge's production right now is mind-boggling. MLB Savant credits him with the highest hard-hit percentage by a good margin over the last five seasons. He's one of five players to have at least 50 home runs in three separate seasons, and Judge has a great shot of becoming one of four to do it in four seasons. He even holds an absurd .455 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which would be better than Babe Ruth's all-time record of .423 in the modern era.

When Judge is surpassing some of the Great Bambino's numbers, anything is possible. This includes winning the first Triple Crown since 2012. I wouldn't put anything out of reach right now.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.