Why the Philadelphia Eagles Will Win Super Bowl LIX

The Super Bowl LIX matchup is set, and it's a rematch of Super Bowl LVII with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs set to face off. Of course, the Chiefs got the last laugh two years ago, winning their third Super Bowl at the time and the first of back-to-back trophies. Kansas City is looking to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat as Super Bowl champs while Philadelphia is looking to enact revenge and win its first Lombardi Trophy since 2017.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs have opened as 1.5-point favorites. What will it take for the Eagles to fly high and pull off the upset? Let's go over the keys for Philadelphia to bring home another Super Bowl trophy to the City of Brotherly Love.

The Case for the Eagles to Win Super Bowl LIX

Which Matchups Favor the Eagles Over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?

One of the biggest strengths of this Eagles team is their pass rush, ranked second in Pro Football Focus' pass rushing grade. Philly's elite front seven has been the heartbeat of this defense that finished first in FanDuel Research's schedule-adjusted rankings from the regular season.

This also includes leading the NFL in adjusted pass defense, giving up only 6.1 yards per passing attempt (the fewest). Of course, this is as ideal as it gets against Patrick Mahomes -- who continues to turn into a beast in the postseason. Mahomes' PFF passing grade goes from 86.9 when kept clean compared to 62.7 when under pressure, circling the area where the Eagles must thrive.

The Chiefs aren't an unbeatable force in pass protection, ranked 13th in PFF's pass blocking grade. Philadelphia has the tools to generate pressure on Mahomes, giving it a shot at slowing football's most dominate force.

Defensive tackle Jalen Carter stands out as the Eagles' best defensive linemen; he has totaled two sacks, three quarterback hits, and 15 pressures through three playoff games. The NFC Championship Game was perhaps Carter's best playoff performance yet with eight generated pressures. Kansas City's guards are actually vulnerable in pass pro too, for Trey Smith has a 67.0 PFF pass blocking grade while Mike Caliendo touts an alarming 43.6 pass blocking grade.

If one player matchup had to be circled for Philly, it's Carter against the Chiefs' guards. He can be a game-wrecker as interior pressure is a QB's worst nightmare. If the Eagles are making Mahomes uncomfortable, it will likely come on the back of Carter. Super Bowl defensive props have Carter at +116 to record a sack, which is one of my favorite bets in the early going.

On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley -- who is averaging 159.0 scrimmage yards per game and 6.5 yards per touch in the playoffs -- has been the story of Philadelphia's offense. However, Super Bowl LIX may be on Jalen Hurts' arm. He shined in his last Super Bowl outing by posting 304 passing yards and 8.0 yards per passing attempt against Kansas City.

The Chiefs' defense allowed 4.2 yards per rushing attempt (9th-fewest) compared to 7.1 yards per passing attempt (16th-most) in the regular season. Our adjusted ranking show the same results, for Kansas City ranked 12th against the run and 18th when facing the pass. The Chiefs run zone coverage at the eighth-highest clip (per NFL Next Gen Stats), and A.J. Brown has PFF's 10th-best receiving grade against zone coverage (83.0) among qualifying players.

Hurts also comes off his best postseason outing with 246 passing yards, 8.8 yards per passing attempt, and a 91.6 PFF passing grade. Brown finally showed a pulse too, finishing with six catches for 96 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Philly's passing game now has hope after a good showing in the NFC Championship Game, and against a defense that gave up 374 yards and 29 points against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game, the Eagles' offense has the tools to attack the Chiefs' secondary. Philadelphia even has PFF's sixth-highest pass blocking grade, which can help thwart Kansas City's fifth-highest pass rushing grade.

Ultimately, winning the passing game while finding success in rushing the passer looks like the Eagles' path to success.

The Eagles' Keys to Victory in Super Bowl LIX

Some of Philadelphia's keys to victory of course overlap with its advantageous matchups. Winning the pass rushing game is the biggest key for the Eagles. These are two of the best pass rushes football has to offer, and the same can be said for offense line play.

Philly's O-Line is in a league of its own, though, ranked first in PFF's final 2024 offensive line rankings compared to Kansas City ranking seventh. Plus, we already mentioned the Eagles' best defensive lineman has nice potential one-on-one matchups.

In addition to rushing the passer, winning the run game is always a big plus in the playoffs. Since Super Bowl 50, teams who had the most rushing yards went 5-3 (rushing total was tied in Super Bowl 51). The Chiefs won the rushing battle in two of their three Super Bowl wins since 2020, as well.

The Eagles probably have the most lethal run game out there thanks to Barkley's current level of play. They averaged 5.1 yards per carry (fourth-most) and 186.6 rushing yards per game (second-most) during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs finished with only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt (2nd-fewest) and 103.9 rushing yards per contest (10th-fewest) during the regular season. Philly completed the regular season with the 4th-best adjusted run game compared to K.C. finishing 10th. Barkley is expected to have yet another big day, proven by his 112.5-rushing-yard prop.

With each defense in the top 12 of adjusted rush defense, the Eagles seem to have a better shot of winning the run game.

Finally, the turnover battle is always a key, especially when the stakes are at the highest. This is yet another check mark for the Eagles, for they are second in average turnover margin (+1.1) while logging only 0.8 turnovers per game (fourth-fewest) and forcing 1.8 takeaways per contest (third-most). The Chiefs average 0.8 giveaways per contest (5th-fewest) but force only 1.1 takeaways per game (14th-fewest), putting them at 11th in margin (+0.3).

Considering Philadelphia's chances of winning the run game and turnover battle while putting pressure on the QB, the Eagles are a promising upset pick (+106). This one could simply come down to whether it's worth betting against Mahomes. The public doesn't think so, putting 60% of moneyline picks and 55% of spread bets on Kansas City.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.