Who Will Lead the MLB in Steals?

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The Players Specials tab within the MLB odds has markets for several stat leaders, too.

Below are the odds for the Regular Season Stolen Bases Leader, followed by a breakdown of the top names.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise stated.

MLB Stolen Bases Leader Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+160)

MVP favorite Ronald Acuna led all of Major League Baseball with 73 stolen bases last season, so he's a rightful favorite to lead the league again in 2024.

Last season was the perfect storm for Acuna to lead the league in steals. Despite posting the slowest average sprint speed of his career, Acuna set career-best marks in games played (159) and on-base percentage (.416). He finished second in the league with 137 singles and tied for 23rd with 35 doubles.

Those singles and doubles were the key to his high volume on the basepaths. Acuna stole second base 59 times (first) and third base 14 times (second). He was caught stealing on just 14 of his 87 attempts, good for an 84% success rate.

The case for Acuna to repeat as the steals leader starts with his success at the plate. He finished second with a .428 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in 2023 but underperformed relative to his .460 expected wOBA (xwOBA). Acuna had the eighth-biggest difference between wOBA and xwOBA, so there's reason to believe he could actually improve on last year's counting stats.

He further benefits from batting first in a potent Atlanta Braves lineup. That led to 336 stolen base opportunities, the fourth-most in baseball.

Despite a 64th-percentile sprint speed, Acuna proved to be the MLB's premier baserunner in 2023. Coming off the best season of his career, the 26-year-old is well-positioned to repeat as the stolen bases leader this year.

Esteury Ruiz (+390)

Esteury Ruiz was quietly neck-and-neck with Acuna for the stolen base crown last season, finishing with 67 thefts. He did that despite posting a .309 on-base percentage, so there's certainly a case for him to be the steals leader in 2024.

While Acuna's volume was fueled by his prowess at the plate, Ruiz relied on his 97th percentile sprint speed. He had only 129 stolen base opportunities in 2023, but he made the most of them. Ruiz attempted a steal on 64% of his opportunities, the highest rate in baseball. He successfully stole a base on 84% of his 80 attempts, so there's no questioning his skill on the basepaths.

We can question his skill at the dish, though, and that'll be the biggest obstacle for him to lead the league in steals. Ruiz posted an ugly .290 wOBA, somehow outperforming his .271 xwOBA. That was a 3rd percentile mark league-wide, and it was the primary reason he saw 200 fewer stolen base opportunities than Acuna.

He did bump his xwOBA up from .216 in 2022, so there's a world where he takes another step forward in his third MLB season. The issue is that he may not get the chance to do so. Ruiz's playing time took a hit over the second half of last season, ceding time to top prospect Lawrence Butler. Ruiz appeared in 85 of the Oakland Athletics' 92 games in the first half but just 47 of their final 70 after the All-Star break. Still, his 24 steals over the second half ranked fourth in baseball.

Stay locked into the reports from Oakland's spring camp. Ruiz is one of the most gifted base runners in the sport, but he'll be hard-pressed to lead the league in steals in a limited role. If he can secure an everyday spot in the order, the sky's the limit.

Corbin Carroll (+650)

Reining National League Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll finished third in stolen bases last season, swiping 54 bags. He added five more steals during the Arizona Diamondbacks' postseason run, so he's quickly established himself as an elite base-stealer.

Carroll posted 99th percentile sprint speed with a 93rd percentile wOBA en route to his monster rookie season. He was caught stealing just 5 times on 59 attempts. That's good for a 92% success rate, tied for the highest mark among players with at least 30 attempts.

While he didn't take off at nearly the same rate as Ruiz, Carroll attempted a steal on 28% of his 214 opportunities. That was the fifth-highest rate among players with at least 30 attempts.

Although his 214 opportunities were outside the top 80 league-wide, that was no fault of his own. Carroll got on base at a .362 clip during his rookie year. He hit atop the Diamondbacks lineup against righties but was often relegated to the bottom third against lefties. Still, we don't need to worry about Carroll's playing time as he'll be locked into Arizona's lineup every day.

Carroll has the speed and bat skills to compete for the stolen base crown in 2024. He's proven to be a highly efficient base-stealer but will likely need to get more aggressive if he wants to lead the league in steals.

Elly De La Cruz (+750)

Cincinnati Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz is the fourth (and final) player with shorter than 10:1 odds to lead the league in steals.

Despite not getting called up until June, Elly still finished ninth with 35 stolen bases. He immediately established himself as one of the most aggressive base-stealers in the sport, attempting to steal on 41% of his opportunities. He was caught stealing eight times, though an 81% success rate is nothing to scoff at.

It is not hyperbolic to say that De La Cruz is the fastest player in baseball. He tied Bobby Witt Jr. for the fastest sprint speed in the league last season, so it's no wonder he's among the top candidates to take home the steals crown in 2024.

Elly's chances of leading the league in steals hinge on his bat. He simply has to get on base more if he wants to compete with the likes of Acuna. De La Cruz posted a .377 wOBA in 30 games before the All-Star break last season. After the break, Elly's wOBA dropped to .271. He did walk at a 9.2% clip over the second half, but his 36% strikeout rate limited his chances of getting on.

Still, Elly's first 30 games were a taste of what he brings to the table. If he can find a middle ground between last year's pre- and post-All-Star break splits, he could very well challenge for the most stolen bases this season.

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