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Who Are the Top Contenders for the American League Cy Young Award?

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin•@skyler_carlin

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It's almost time for spring training to get underway ahead of the 2024 MLB season. Pitchers and catchers are in the process of reporting to camp, which means it is a perfect time to dish out predictions on who will win the Cy Young Award in each league.

For the American League, the reigning Cy Young winner is Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees. Cole is hoping to be the first American League pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 2000 to win back-to-back Cy Young trophies.

Before discussing my favorite picks for the upcoming season, I want to share the thresholds that each winner of the AL Cy Young has reached in each of the last five full seasons. Each of the last five winners has achieved at least 13 wins, 5.7 wins above replacement (WAR), 175 innings pitched (IP), 185 strikeouts, a 2.84 earned run average (ERA), and 1.05 walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP).

While those numbers aren't official requirements, they are solid benchmarks to adhere to when trying to guess who will take home the hardware.

Without needing to speak about why Cole could repeat, let's dive into my favorite AL Cy Young bets for the 2024 season from the Cy Young odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

AL Cy Young Odds

AL Cy Young Winner
Odds
Gerrit Cole+500
Kevin Gausman+700
Framber Valdez+1000
Pablo Lopez+1000
Corbin Burnes+1000
Luis Castillo+1200
George Kirby+1300

Kevin Gausman (+700)

There haven't been many pitchers who have displayed more consistency than Kevin Gausman in recent years. The 33-year-old pitcher finished in third place for the AL Cy Young last season after leading the American League in strikeouts (237) while registering the second-highest K/9 (11.53) mark of his career.

Gausman is entering his third season with the Toronto Blue Jays, and he's achieved 12-plus wins, 174-plus IP, and at least 205 strikeouts in three consecutive years. What has hurt Gausman in recent years is the fact he has logged a WHIP of 1.18 or worse in back-to-back seasons, and he surrendered a career-worst 9.9% barrel rate in 2023.

When taking the mound, Gausman primarily relies on two pitches in his arsenal: a four-seam fastball (50.8% rate) and a splitter (38.4%). With those two primary pitches dominating his repertoire, Gausman notched the 10th-best swinging strike rate (12.9%) during the 2023 campaign.

The experienced right-hander has earned Cy Young votes in each of the last three seasons, and he'll continue to be the ace for the Blue Jays in 2024. If Gausman can lower his WHIP and continue striking out batters at an impressive rate, he'll be contending for the illustrious award again this season.

Corbin Burnes (+1000)

One of the most notable moves of the offseason was Corbin Burnes being traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Baltimore Orioles. In each of the last three seasons -- where he has started in 10-plus games -- Burnes had his worst year in 2023, which can partly be attributed to a couple of factors.

Burnes posted a 10-8 record, the lowest strikeout rate (25.5%) of his career since becoming a full-time starting pitcher, an 8.4% walk rate, and a 3.39 ERA last season. The 29-year-old hurler is among the many pitchers who needed time to adjust to the new pitch clock in baseball, and he dealt with a pec strain and a sprained ankle throughout the 2023 campaign.

Of the pitchers listed in my best bets, Burnes is the lone one of the bunch who has already secured a Cy Young Award -- he won the NL Cy Young in 2021 with the Brewers. The good news for Burnes is he still managed to tally the 16th-best swinging-strike rate (12.2%) in 2023, and he'll be getting a park upgrade upon joining the Orioles.

Considering Burnes averaged a 33.1% strikeout rate in his two seasons prior to 2023, and he's fully healthy right now, he is a fantastic value to be awarded the AL Cy Young at his current odds (+1000). There's also the fact that the Orioles are tied for the sixth-shortest odds (+1500) to win the World Series on FanDuel Sportsbook, indicating that he could be in store for plenty of wins.

Luis Castillo (+1200)

Another player who excels at forcing swings and misses on the mound is Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners. The hard-throwing righty experienced a solid 2023 campaign, logging a 14-9 record, a 27.3% strikeout rate, and the seventh-most total strikeouts (219) in the league while recording a career-high 197 innings pitched.

Despite the velocity of his four-seam fastball dipping from 97.1 mph in 2022 to 96.4 mph in 2023, Castillo still had the third-highest swinging strike rate (14.7%) in the majors. At the same time, he did register a 3.34 ERA and a career-worst 9.4% barrel rate a season ago.

Since joining the Mariners during the 2022 season via trade, Castillo has amassed an 18-11 record, 3.29 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 296 total strikeouts in 262.1 IP across 44 starts. Allowing less hard contact while continuing to generate swings and misses at a high rate -- which is easier said than done -- can help Castillo secure the first Cy Young of his career.

After a formidable showing, Castillo finished in fifth place for the AL Cy Young in 2023, putting him only behind Cole, Gausman, Sonny Gray, and Kyle Bradish. Assuming the eight-year veteran can remain healthy again, Castillo's pitching volume and arsenal make him a threat to take home some hardware.

Longshot Pick: Grayson Rodriguez (+3000)

While I prefer taking Burnes to win the AL Cy Young for the Orioles, another member of Baltimore's pitching rotation who has the potential to shine this season is Grayson Rodriguez. The second-year pitcher had a back-and-forth rookie campaign in 2023 that saw him sent back down to the minors after beginning the season in the majors.

But once the second-year pitcher rejoined the Orioles, he began to show more consistency on the mound. After spending nearly two months away from the Orioles from late May to mid July, Rodriguez wouldn't give up more than four earned runs in his last 13 starts while striking out five-plus batters in 11 of those starts.

The former first-round pick was also credited with a win in five of his final eight starts of the regular season. While the early-season woes Rodriguez endured led to him having an inflated 4.35 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP on the season, he flashed plenty of star potential down the stretch.

As mentioned with Burnes, the Orioles are projected to be a contender in the AL this season, which only improves Rodriguez's chances of earning wins. On top of that, Rodriguez could now be needed even more with the news of Bradish beginning the season on the injured list for Baltimore.


Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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