Which Cowboys' Running Back is Worth Targeting for Fantasy Football?

The Dallas Cowboys have been consistently labeled as one of the big losers of the offseason. Decisions surrounding the running back room was perhaps the most head-scratching move.

Tony Pollard departed in free agency, inking a three-year, $21.75 million deal with the Tennessee Titans. Naturally, most assumed Dallas would address running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. Yet, the Cowboys completely overlooked the position, followed by re-signing Ezekiel Elliott.

This leaves Dallas' room with Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Zeke carries an average draft position (ADP) of RB37 and 110th overall while Dowdle holds RB45 and 146th overall.

Taking any running back from the Cowboys' roster would mean a late-draft pick, probably into the ninth round in 12-team leagues. Either tailback could be circled for Zero-RB draft strategies.

If Zero-RB is your speed, Dallas could be the perfect backfield to target, but is Elliott or Dowdle the better choice? Let's break down the Cowboys' running back room.

Dallas Cowboys RBs Fantasy Football Outlook

Ezekiel Elliott's Outlook

The unofficial depth chart currently has Elliott as the starting running back, but don't expect some of his past workload in Dallas.

When asked if Zeke would see a similar usage rate to his first stint with the Cowboys, coach Mike McCarthy stated,“That’s not going to be his role. We are going to be a running back by committee.”

This is not the Elliott of old just because he's donning the star once again. He probably can't return to finishing in the top 10 of his position in carries as he did every season from 2016 to 2022, per PlayerProfiler.

We saw this in his final season with the Boys; he finished 44th in yards created compared to being in the top 15 of the category annually from 2016 to 2021. While Zeke's efficiency wasn't anything great in 2022, he still finished among the top-20 running backs in half PPR thanks to 12 rushing touchdowns.

Finding the end zone is probably Elliott's best chance of providing good value in 2024. The Cowboys still have one of the NFL's best offenses that totaled the most points per game (PPG) in football last season. Plus, numberFire's schedule-adjusted power rankings have the offense as the NFL's ninth-best unit for 2024.

There are plenty of touchdowns to go around in Dallas, and Zeke enjoyed the 13th-most red zone touches at his position in 2022.

His red zone work took a backseat with the New England Patriots, ranking 37th in red zone touches. He was primarily a backup behind Rhamondre Stevenson but still took 57.1% of his team's red zone touches within the five-yard line. Plus, he had solid efficiency in the small sample size, scoring two touchdowns in four attempts within the five (50.0%) -- which wasn't far behind 2022's mark of scoring on 56.3% of his attempts.

Exciting scoring potential is present for Elliott, but will it be enough to overcome hype surrounding his running mate, Dowdle?

Rico Dowdle's Outlook

During OTAs, Dowdle and Zeke were splitting first-team reps. This competition is far from over, and glowing reviews surrounding Dowdle is making him a sleeper running back.

Jon Machota of The Athletic claimed Dowdle has to be the favorite to lead the Cowboys in rushing yards for 2024. Last season was really the first time Dowdle got any work in the NFL, totaling 89 carries for 361 rushing yards (4.1 yards per attempt). We don't have much to go on, but Dowdle did have some impressive advanced stats in 2023.

He posted -0.6 rushing yards over expectation per game (RYOE), via NFL's Next Gen Stats. That's nothing to write home about, but it did lead Dallas last season compared to Tony Pollard at -1.3 RYOE. Dowdle's yards created per touch is where we start getting impressed.

Pollard finished 37th in yards created per touch last season, per PlayerProfiler. Focusing on 2024's backfield, Elliott was 34th in the category with the Pats in 2023. Then, we look at Dowdle, who put up the ninth-best mark in the league. Yards after contact is yet another feather in Dowdle's cap as he recorded 1.9 yards after contact per attempt last season compared to Zeke's 1.5.

At bare minimum, the Cowboys will likely lean on Dowdle for the big play. His yards created per touch alone proves Dowdle is capable of turning nothing into something or popping any given play into an explosive gain. Elliott doesn't really have this in his game anymore and performs best in short-yardage situations and as a pass blocker.

Dowdle was even generating some waiver wire interest last season, for he produced three top-26 weekly finishes at his position from Week 10 to Week 14. However, a lack of touches prevented Dowdle from becoming an actual asset as he never amassed more than 12 rushing attempts in a game last season.

Advanced stats suggest Dowdle could be in a position to become Dallas' top tailback. Training camp is only adding more support with most insiders claiming he looks like the Cowboys' best running back. Dowdle simply has fresher legs and more explosiveness than an aging Elliott. Considering the offseason reviews, Dowdle is a real threat to become the official RB1, but what do the projections say?

Which Cowboys RB is the Best Option?

FanDuel Research's season-long projections are suggesting an even bigger gap between Elliott and Dowdle compared to their ADPs. Zeke is forecasted to finish at RB31 while Dowdle is RB42; that's 11 spots compared to Elliott only 8 spots above Dowdle's ADP.

The receiving game is expected to be almost evenly split with Elliott projected 1.5 receptions, 9.5 receiving yards, and 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game compared to Dowdle at 1.3, 9.7, and 0.1. However, Zeke is expected to get a bigger workload on the ground at 10.8 carries and 42.6 rushing yards per game while Rico is touting projections of 8.2 carries and 33.3 rushing yards per contest.

Touchdowns are also leaning in Elliott's favor, as expected. He's forecasted 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game compared to Dowdle's 0.2. The Cowboys gave Dowdle only 16.7% of their rushing attempts within the five-yard line last season. Meanwhile, Zeke took over 57.0% of New England's a season ago and 69.6% of Dallas' work within the five in 2022.

I'm questioning some of the projections' numbers, such as taking Elliott to lead in rushing yards. This workload will probably be pretty darn close, and Dowdle is simply the more efficient runner at this point. Yet, projections have the two almost even with Zeke at a forecasted 3.9 yards per carry while Dowdle holds 4.0. Elliott hasn't reached this mark since 4.2 yards per attempts in 2021. With two more seasons on Zeke's legs, I doubt the 29-year-old back will dramatically spike his efficiency.

Dowdle will likely generate more big plays, leading to much better efficiency. There's still a good shot that Dowdle leads the team in rushing like insiders have suggested. However, this doesn't mean more fantasy success. Elliott is still very efficient on the goal line and will likely take the bulk of the Cowboys' rushing touchdowns. Reaching double-digit touchdowns isn't out of the question, either.

With rushing touchdowns looming and projections six spots above his ADP, Elliott still seems like the choice in Dallas' backfield for fantasy football.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.