What's the Fantasy Football Impact of Joe Burrow's Toe Injury on the Bengals?

Unfortunately, the NFL's first marquee in-season injury has come.

In the first half of the Cincinnati Bengals' Week 2 battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Joe Burrow was injured on a sack and immediately left the game. Interestingly enough, backup quarterback Jake Browning entered the contest and actually led Cincinnati to a come-from-behind win to push their record to 2-0.

How long will Burrow remain sidelined? Is Browning good enough to support Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown in a meaningful way in fantasy football? Let's diagnose this new situation.

Note: Scoring and rankings come from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

Joe Burrow Injury Update

Though not plausibly the worst possible news for Bengals fans, the worst news possible for those fantasy football managers invested in Burrow's greatness was confirmed Monday.

The quarterback will be sidelined for approximately three months due to a turf toe injury that'll require surgery.

That puts Burrow in line to return somewhere around the middle of December, which would be right before the fantasy football playoffs. The team is scheduled to face the Baltimore Ravens on December 14th right around this time before concluding with the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, and Cleveland Browns.

In superflex leagues or formats with IR slots, Burrow is worth a stash. However, if that's not available in your league, Burrow averaged just 7.9 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in three halves this year. I wouldn't lose another good player with a better prognosis just to keep Burrow on your roster.

Jake Browning's NFL Stats

The Bengals actually pay Jake Browning a decent amount as their backup quarterback because this situation isn't totally unprecedented. Burrow missed six-plus games in both 2020 and 2023.

Browning saw all of the relief work in 2023. In nine total appearances, he averaged 215.1 passing yards per game with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT), but his +0.03 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) was actually 12th-best in the NFL of those who averaged at least 25 attempts per appearance, per NFL's Next Gen Stats.

In short, he was surprisingly efficient for a backup quarterback. That's why it wasn't shock he led the Bengals back to a win against a porous Jags secondary on Sunday.

Now, Browning's showing yesterday was perhaps a bit more concerning. He tossed three picks to just two touchdowns and posted -0.13 EPA/db on a much higher aDOT (8.4). "Letting it fly" came with good and bad consequences.

For now, it seems that he's a decent streaming option in plus matchups and can support some of Cincinnati's weapons. Three of those weapons were picked in the top-30 selections of most fantasy drafts.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins Without Joe Burrow

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins absolutely chowed in yesterday's matchup, but what is their staying power in fantasy without Burrow?

Chase drew 11 targets from Browning to Higgins' 5 looks. That was a 34.7% share for Chase, compared to just a 15.6% share for Tee, who -- of course -- also caught the long touchdown.

The trio also played five games together in 2023. Chase posted 9.8 FPPG on a 21.0% target share, compared to Higgins' 9.0 FPPG on a 12.8% target share. It's worth noting Tyler Boyd was still involved at that time, but Cincy's improved tight end tandem of Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki have ostensibly replaced those looks.

Raw FPPG totals in Browning's overall starts shine favorably on Higgins because of a one-week sample where Tee produced 22.5 fantasy points with Chase sidelined that game. Even with Burrow out, Higgins and Chase have the upside to become elite fantasy options should the other miss time.

Cincinnati has increasingly built their offense around Chase with pre-snap motion and designed looks, so I'm expecting he'll still have quite a bit from separation from Higgins over the next three months.

At this moment, Ja'Marr is obviously a hold. He's a superstar talent who likely won't return requisite value from his ADP but still should have a very good role and situation. However, if you are able to part with Higgins for another WR2 in a better offense -- like Emeka Egbuka or Ricky Pearsall -- Tee's path to fantasy production with Chase healthy is far more volatile.

Chase Brown Without Joe Burrow

An issue with spending your second-round pick on volume and offensive environment instead of talent is if one of those things disappears, you may be in trouble. That's Chase Brown's biggest obstacle.

At the moment, Brown isn't leaving your roster. Not many will buy him for just his role, which is still one of the largest in the NFL for a running back -- 70.8% snap share and 22.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) through two contests.

The problem is Brown has averaged just 7.5 FPPG because of -0.54 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c), per Next Gen Stats. That's sixth-worst in the NFL for those who have seen at least 20 carries.

If you envisioned a nightmare scenario when selecting the tailback in the second round, it was that the Burrow-Chase infrastructure to make this offense elite was compromised or Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s 31st-ranked offense line completely soured his production. Both happening by Week 2 isn't ideal.

Brown's best comparison in this current situation might be Rico Dowdle from last season. It's hard to envision benching Brown when a decent backup QB with a superstar wideout can keep this offense alive enough for Brown to have spike weeks due to a continuous amount of playing time, but the efficiency might be concerning. This is a good reminder to consider individual talent in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.