What's Davante Adams' Fantasy Football Outlook With Uncertain Quarterback Play?

Davante Adams averaged just 12.6 fantasy points per game last season, his lowest since 2015.

Even so, he finished as the overall WR11 and still flashed week-winning upside with a pair of 30-point weeks.

The Las Vegas Raiders quarterback situation is murky entering 2024, but Adams is still being drafted as a top-12 receiver in fantasy football.

Can Adams bounce back from a down season, and what's his 2024 fantasy football outlook with uncertain quarterback play?

Fantasy points and rankings reference half-point-per-reception (0.5 PPR) scoring formats. Statistics via PFF or Pro Football Reference unless otherwise stated.

Davante Adams Fantasy Football Outlook

Adams' 2023 Season

Last season did not go according to plan for Davante Adams.

After Vegas shipped off Adams' college quarterback (Derek Carr), they signed Jimmy Garoppolo in hopes he could replicate the stellar efficiency numbers he'd previously posted with the San Francisco 49ers.

He did not.

Jimmy G completed just 65.1% of his passes across the first eight weeks before he was benched when Vegas fired head coach Josh McDaniels. At the time of his benching, Garoppolo led the league in interceptions and had exceeded 200 passing yards just twice in six games.

In six games with Jimmy G under center, Adams averaged 5.3 receptions, 67.8 yards, and 12.5 fantasy points per game. He caught three touchdowns and commanded a 30.5% target share over that span, though most of his damage came via a 35.7-point explosion in Week 3.

Things got better for Adams in the second half of the year. Over his final nine games with Aidan O'Connell as the starter, Davante averaged 6.2 receptions, 67.2 yards, and 13.2 fantasy points per game.

While his target share jumped to 35.4% over that stretch, he still struggled with consistency. In nine games after Garoppolo's benching, Adams finished as a top-12 wide receiver thrice but also failed to crack double-digit fantasy points four times.

Still, the blow-ups were explosive enough that Adams finished as the WR12 overall and WR15 in points per game from Week 9 through 18.

Uncertain Quarterback Play

It's more than reasonable to be concerned about a 31-year-old wide receiver regardless of who their quarterback is, but I'd be hesitant to peg Adams with a washed tag after last season.

Though he recorded his fewest yards per route run (1.97) and finished with his worst PFF receiving grade (80) since 2017, those were still above-average marks. Among wideouts who appeared in at least 13 games, Adams ranked 28th in yards per route run and had the 21st-ranked PFF receiving grade.

He ranked 15th in ESPN's Open Score -- a player tracking metric using data from NFL Next Gen Stats that examines every route run and accesses how likely a receiver would be able to complete a catch if targeted.

That doesn't fit the profile as someone past their prime, even if we may not see another 20+ fantasy-point-per-game season.

No, Davante Adams' individual talent isn't the reason we should be wary of him in fantasy this season.

But we should be concerned about his quarterback play.

The Raiders are in the midst of a quarterback battle, pitting incumbent starter Aidan O'Connell against the recently signed Gardner Minshew.

O'Connell and Minshew had very similar numbers in 2023, though neither were particularly impressive.

Despite the lackluster numbers, O'Connell and Minshew both supported a fantasy-relevant wide receiver in 2023.

In O'Connell's 10 starts, Davante Adams was the WR15 (13.0 FP/G) and commanded a 35.3% target share.

Minshew played at least 50% of the snaps in 15 games. In those weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. was the WR17 (12.3 FP/G) and saw 31.3% of the Indianapolis Colts' targets.

But neither has proven capable of supporting WR1s on a weekly basis, and that makes Adams a risky fantasy football pick considering where he's going in drafts.

Where Should Adams Be Drafted?

It's hard to get super excited about Adams' fantasy outlook in 2024.

He'll be 32 years old by the end of the season and is coming off his first sub-2.00 yards per route run in a season since 2017. The Raiders haven't named their starting quarterback yet, and their options aren't ideal.

Yet it would be irresponsible to completely write off the three-time All-Pro. We're still talking about someone who finished as a top-15 wideout -- even with suboptimal quarterback play.

That's even more true when we look at the Davante Adams regular season total receiving yards odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Adams' over/under for yards is set at 1000.5, and he has the 14th-shortest odds for the most regular season yards at +3500.

As of mid-July, Adams' average draft position (ADP) sits at 16.3 overall, according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP. That slots him in as the WR10, right behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and ahead of Chris Olave.

Looking beyond the WR position, Saquon Barkley (15.3), Kyren Williams (21.7), and De'Von Achane (22.0) are all around Adams in ADP. All three averaged more fantasy points per game than Adams in 2023, and they're all projected for more this season, according to numberFire's NFL projections.

And therein lies the problem with Adams' 2024 fantasy football outlook. In a vacuum, no one is going to be upset about having him on their team. But at his age and in a lackluster offense, Adams just doesn't have the ceiling to justify a top-24 pick.

If he falls to the third round, I'd be happy to scoop him up as my WR2. But if you're selecting Adams with the hope that he can deliver a prime Davante season, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

Davante Adams Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's projections have Adams going for 93 receptions, 1,117 receiving yards, and 7.5 receiving touchdowns across a 17-game season.

That comes out to 203.14 fantasy points, 13th among receivers and 32nd among non-quarterbacks.

Those projections aren't as bullish on Adams as his WR10 ADP on FantasyPros and in FanDuel's best-ball drafts.

Considering his situation and unfavorable projection, it's hard to justify taking Adams at his current ADP.

Perhaps the Raiders get better-than-expected quarterback play and Adams fends off Father Time one more year, but he's not someone I'm actively targeting in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.