What Is the Fantasy Football Impact of Josh Palmer Signing With the Bills?

The NFL offseason has kicked into high gear with many free agents finding new homes in the past few days. The Buffalo Bills got in on the action, signing wide receiver Josh Palmer to a 3-year, $36 million deal.

With the Palmer signing, Buffalo has addressed a key positional need, as Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are both unrestricted free agents. The Cooper era is seemingly in the rearview, as the veteran will likely command a larger contract than the Bills can currently afford (second-lowest cap space in the NFL).

What is Palmer's fantasy football outlook now that he'll play in Josh Allen's offense, and how does this signing impact the other members of Buffalo's receiving corps? Let's find out.

Josh Palmer's Fantasy Football Outlook With the Bills

Palmer got more money than one would have expected

In 2024, he was buried in a run-heavy Los Angeles Chargers offense that rightly favored Ladd McConkey in the passing game. Through 15 games, Palmer earned 584 yards and one touchdown on a 14.9% target share -- only the fourth-highest on the team.

He's yet to tally 800-plus receiving yards in a single season during his four-year NFL career. Spotrac estimated Palmer to have a market value of $4.3 million per year. He ended up nearly tripling that with his Bills contract ($12 million per year).

Palmer's flashier-than-expected contract can only be viewed as a positive as his fantasy value is concerned. The Bills are tight on money and have now committed to make the most out of this deal. And while Palmer has posted middling stats thus far, he has a chance to carve out a unique role in this high-powered Bills offense.

The Bills lack a consistent deep threat receiver. Keon Coleman led the way in 2024 with a team-high 27.2% air yards share and 15.2 aDOT (average depth of target). But among WRs across the league, Coleman ranked just 86th in receiving grade and 134th in drop grade on deep targets, per PFF. Palmer, meanwhile, fared 36th and 8th respectively in this context on a similar-to-Coleman 26.0% air yards share and 15.2 aDOT. Palmer also averaged more yards after catch per deep reception (4.4) than Coleman (3.0).

Palmer has averaged 15.1 yards per catch across his last two seasons and grades out as someone who can serve as a separator in an offense that needs one. Pair that with Buffalo's monetary commitment, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Palmer lead this high-scoring team in air yards this season. As always, we'll have to monitor whether Palmer's ADP (average draft position) ends up being lower-than-should-be, but he could emerge as one of the more undervalued wideouts in fantasy football in 2025.

How Josh Palmer Impacts Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid

Palmer is currently the third-highest paid skill player on the Bills behind only Allen and Khalil Shakir.

Shakir and the Bills agreed to a four-year, $60.2 million contract extension earlier this offseason. Buffalo's WR1 earned 100 targets in 2024 -- 25 more than the next-most player. Shakir should pair well with Palmer. The former predominantly eats up short-yard volume with a 15.4% air yards share and a muted 5.2 aDOT last season. Shakir didn't score as many touchdowns (4) as we would have liked him to last season and will likely maintain an uninspiring end zone target share with Palmer in town.

Dalton Kincaid struggled to build off a promising rookie campaign in 2024. He and Palmer are different sizes and take on different roles. However, the more assets Buffalo's offense gains, the harder it will be to vouch for Kincaid as a fantasy weapon at tight end.

As mentioned, Coleman figures to lose out on some deep targets now that Palmer is in the fold. Palmer, however, will in no way usurp Coleman's role. The 2024 second-round draft pick averaged 19.2 yards per catch (third-most in the NFL) in his rookie campaign and has room for a bigger breakout in his age-22 season. He's still the WR2 in this offense and offers a bigger build than Palmer, but the signing likely most directly impacts his fantasy ceiling.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.