What is D'Andre Swift's Fantasy Football Outlook in Chicago?

The Chicago Bears have one of the most notable running back competitions of training camp with D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson all duking it out.

With about one month before the regular season, Swift is expected to win the starting spot with the highest average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues as RB22, per FantasyPros. Meanwhile, Herbert is RB58 and Johnson is RB60. For the most part, this seems like a battle between Herbert and Johnson for the second-string spot.

Swift is no stranger to his current situation as he landed with a new team during the 2023 offseason and found himself in a running back competition with the Philadelphia Eagles. Swift established himself as the top dog, surpassing his RB28 ADP as RB23.

Can Swift tap back into his 2023 success, passing up his ADP yet again?

D'Andre Swift Fantasy Football Outlook

Weak Efficiency, Few Touchdowns Prevent 2023 Breakout

Let's start with what made Swift a valuable fantasy asset in 2023. His 1,049 rushing yards was a career-high paired with a career-best 229 rushing attempts -- the 12th-most carries last season, per PlayerProfiler.

His usage across the board had fantasy managers like a kid in a candy shop, for he had the 17th-highest snap share, 15th-highest opportunity share, and 18th-most red zone touches per contest.

Sure, this is nowhere close to approaching "elite" usage, but this was a huge jump compared to past numbers. For example, Swift was 42nd in snap share and 51st in opportunity share in 2022.

He finally got the chance to be the top running back in an offense -- starting in 15 of 16 appearances -- and Swift produced solid fantasy numbers. For reference, he started in four, four, and eight games in his previous three seasons with the Detroit Lions.

Having a clean bill of health also played a part in the success; Swift participated in 13, 13, and 14 contests prior to 2023, which was surpassed with a career-high 16 outings last season.

While the workload was certainly present, what about Swift's efficiency? This was a different story with Swift posting -0.33 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) and 1.6 yards after contact per rushing attempt. He also finished with -1.6 expected FanDuel points per game vs. FanDuel points (FDP) per game, according to Brandon Gdula's expected FDP per game model; this was the worst mark in Philly's backfield.

Swift's touchdown production wasn't any better, reaching six total TDs. Jalen Hurts ate up a ton of red zone touches, taking 40.4% of the carries compared to Swift's 35.2%. The running back also received only 33.3% of carries within the five-yard line versus Hurts' 53.3% share. The Eagles' Brotherly Shove was a constant thorn in Swift's side.

Keep in mind Swift scored few touchdowns with weak efficiency while running behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. Philadelphia finished as Pro Football Focus' top O-line last season and boasted the best run block win rate in the league, per ESPN.

Swift surpassed his ADP last season thanks to a heavy workload, but underwhelming efficiency and few touchdowns prevented him from a true break out. Will this be the case once again in 2024?

Chicago Could Provide More Scoring Chances

We could see improvement across the board with Swift donning a Bears uniform. Before we get into the good, let's look at the negative.

His usage as a rusher could be on the decline. The Bears have used a stable of running backs for a handful of seasons.

Khalil Herbert has reached at least 600 rushing yards and 129 attempts in back-to-back seasons. Plus, he posted an impressive 0.29 RYOE/C in 2023. Roschon Johnson also maintained a steady role last year with 81 touches and 4.3 yards per carry.

Chicago has a good running back room, meaning Swift probably won't get all of the work.

Still, he's projecting to be the starting running back. Swift could also see improvements to his efficiency and touchdowns.

He was in the top 10 of yards created per touch from 2020 to 2022, including two top-two finishes, before falling to 51st in the category last season. Some of his efficiency was simply uncharacteristic in 2023; it's feasible for this to improve.

Swift doesn't have to worry about a mobile QB eating a ton of carries, either. Hurts reached 157 rushing attempts last year while totaling 15 rushing touchdowns. Caleb Williams has the ability to scramble, but he never reached 500 rushing yards in a season during his collegiate career. Swift probably won't have to sweat too much about goal-line touches even though Williams did reach double-digit rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons with the USC Trojans.

How Swift fits on the Bears mostly sounds positive, but what do the actual projections say for his fantasy football value?

D'Andre Swift Fantasy Football Projection

FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy projections are pointing to more good value for Swift. He is currently forecasted as RB18 compared to his RB22 ADP.

Take a look at his projected stats: 233 rushing attempts, 1,020 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns, 34 receptions, 238 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns.

This would put Swift at about the same rushing workload as last season (229 attempts; 1,049 rushing yards), five more total touchdowns, and roughly the same receiving output (39 catches and 214 yards in 2023).

Most of this checks out with our analysis of Swift's fit -- notably including the touchdowns. However, the projections are even a bit positive by giving him about the same workload on the ground.

The forecasted stats assume Swift will play in 17 games, giving him 13.7 carries per contest. This is only 0.6 behind last season's per-game average of 14.3 rushing attempts.

Some of this can be attributed to Chicago attempting the second-most carries per contest in 2022, but will this really keep up with Williams stepping in at quarterback, who has the shortest odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+135)?

PFF also awarded the Bears with the league's fourth-best receiving unit ahead of 2024 thanks to the additions of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze alongside D.J. Moore.

I'm still skeptical about Swift getting the same kind of rushing work as 2023; remember, he had the 12th-most carries in the NFL last season. However, the uptick in touchdowns would make up for the decrease in carries.

Even in the worst case (fewer carries), Swift could still deliver on his RB22 ADP thanks to additional scores. With the projections picking Swift to finish four spots above his ADP, there's even more reason to jump on him as a piece from this exciting new Bears offense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.