Week 6 NFL Betting Trends: Post-Bye Splits, the Betting Impact of Wind

• How have teams performed while coming off of a bye? Perhaps not as well as you may think when it comes to the point spread.
• There are windy games on the schedule this week, and that's made an noticeable impact on betting results in the past.
• In an over-friendly start to the season, over/unders are also a season-high entering Week 6.

Research is a key component to NFL betting, and while some trends can really come across as flashy, we have to keep in mind that trends are descriptive. They tell us about what has happened.

If a team's star quarterback is out, his franchise's record against divisional opponents the last four years may not really be of use when digging into an upcoming matchup.

But even with that, it's good to know as much as we can before making up our minds.

So, I'll be looking to pinpoint some potentially noteworthy trends entering each week of the NFL season.

Note: All betting odds and trends since 2019, unless otherwise noted. All data from numberFire.

Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

A Look at Teams Off of a Bye

Rest and bye weeks are always a point of conversation when digging into matchups -- especially once the byes actually begin and rest differentials can pile up -- but how have such matchups impacted lines in the past?

We've got four teams coming off of a bye this week: the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Three of them are at home, save for the Bears (at the Washington Commanders).

Since 2019, teams playing the week after their bye are 100-91-1 (52.4%).

Against the spread, they're 45.5%, and these games have an over rate of just 42.2%.

This suggests teams coming off of a bye might get a bit too much attention, though the outright win rate remains above .500.

The Impact of Wind on NFL Over/Unders

Weather can have a noticeable impact on NFL production, and we're likely to see multiple games with elevated wind for Week 6.

Since 2019, games with wind speeds between 10 and 19, via numberFire's database, have averaged 43.0 points per game with a 40.9% over rate.

By comparison, games with wind speeds under 10 have averaged 45.4 points per game with a 49.9% over rate.

Games with high projected winds as of Wednesday:

• Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
• Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars
• Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
• Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
• San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers
• Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
• Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Keep an eye on the NFL weather as we head into the weekend.

Notable Over Trends Continued in Week 5

Through Week 5, NFL games have gone over at a 52.6% rate, continuing a positive over rate since last season (53.7% over rate in 2024).

This follows a three-year streak of under-friendly seasons.

Notably, though, the rate of 50-plus-point games has climbed since last season: 38.5% this year versus 35.4% a year ago. The 38.5% mark is highest since 2020.

But know this: this week's average over/under is 45.7 points so far in the middle of the week, the highest of the season.

As everything is interconnected, we have to be malleable throughout the year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.