Victor Wembanyama Surges Ahead in Rookie of the Year Race

If you're a fan of the NBA, you've probably already heard about San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama's massive game against the Toronto Raptors on Monday night. The first overall pick of the 2023 NBA Draft recorded a triple-double in the win -- notching 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 blocks while joining rare company in the process.

Given that impressive performance -- on top of his solid play throughout the year -- it should come as little surprise, then, to hear that Wembanyama has surged ahead of his competition for the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

But does he have the award locked up already, or can his rivals catch up after the NBA All-Star break?

Let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Rookie of the Year odds and find out.

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

A Two-Player Race

Wembanyama's -600 odds to win the Rookie of the Year award pace this year's pack, with only Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (+500) challenging him in a meaningful way. Behind them, Charlotte Hornets second-overall pick Brandon Miller carries +15000 odds, and Miami Heat surprise standout Jaime Jaquez Jr. rounds out the contenders with +50000 odds.

Unless something truly drastic happens down the stretch with Miller -- who is on one of the worst teams in the NBA -- or Jaquez, this looks like a two-player race. Both Miller and Jaquez have impressed as rookies and look like they have immense potential in the league, but neither can really match the two frontrunners on a statistical level

As you can see in the chart above, Wembanyama and Holmgren have been significantly more productive on the court than either of Miller or Jaquez. Their betting odds reflect just how much of a chasm stands between these two groups of rookies, making Miller and Jaquez unappealing bets even with their respective +15000 and +50000 odds.

Can Wembanyama Seal the Deal?

Wembanyama's massive Monday performance versus the Raptors could end up being the breaking point for this year's Rookie of the Year awards race. Just check out some of his impressive highlights in the video below:

Wemby's historic night helped him notch his second career triple-double -- he's the only rookie in this year's class to have one. The 10 blocks he recorded brought him up to 153 blocks on the season, most in the NBA by a wide margin -- Holmgren ranks third with 138 swats.

Wembanyama entered the league with massive expectations and is living up to them so far, even as his team struggles. As we saw when we lined up each Rookie of the Year contender's raw per-game stats, the first overall pick of the 2023 NBA Draft leads the way comfortably across the board. Between his on-court production and ever-expanding highlight reels, he's building a very compelling case to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Wembanyama's stats don't just stack up well against his current competition -- they look pretty nice when lined up against past Rookie of the Year award winners.

His 20.4 points per game would rank as the most amongst previous winners since Luka Doncic's rookie year, when the Dallas Mavericks star averaged 21.2 points per game. And Wembanyama's 10.1 rebounds per game would rank best since Karl-Anthony Towns' 10.5 boards per game back in the 2015-16 season.

In all, Wemby's stats look a lot like Blake Griffin's per-game averages of 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists from Griffin's award-winning NBA debut campaign.

Can We Count Out Holmgren?

A preseason foot injury robbed Holmgren of a chance to win the Rookie of the Year award last year, and now Wembanyama appears to be squashing Holmgren's chances of winning the award this year. But should we count out Holmgren -- and his +500 odds -- to win the Rookie of the Year award?

From a narrative standpoint, we can't discount that the Thunder have become one of the strongest teams in the league since Holmgren hit the court. A year after finishing 40-42, the Thunder have a 36-12 record (second in the Western Conference) as of February 13th. We can attribute some of their success to Holmgren's contributions, but he isn't their top player. Still, OKC being good is something that's likely a positive for Holmgren's ROY outlook.

At the same time, the Thunder being so talented means Holmgren doesn't have as much opportunity to shine as some other rookies do.

Wembanyama has outproduced Holmgren in most raw statistical categories but has also been leaned on far more heavily as his team's undeniable top option -- the Spurs' center carries a 31.9% usage rate ranks seventh-highest in the league (among all players, not only rookies). By comparison, Holmgren's 21.5% usage rate ranks just 86th. Holmgren's team, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the controls, just hasn't needed him to produce as much as the Spurs rely on Wembanyama.

If Holmgren were to pull off an upset over Wembanyama for the Rookie of the Year award, he will need to step up his game down the stretch.

Each player's team splits further illustrate the divides. The Spurs have a -5.7 on-court differential with Wembanyama (because they are not a good team) but are 5.5 points better with him on the court than off of it. Holmgren's team is definitely better with him than without him -- 4.4 points better with him, to be exact -- but are also sitting at a +9.2 on-court differential in general.

If we talk through Holmgren's case to win the award over Wembanyama, we'd have to frame it like this: Wembanyama may have been more productive across the board than Holmgren, but his contributions couldn't turn his team into a competitive unit. Holmgren may have had less raw output than Wembanyama but was instrumental in his team's newfound success and was key in their rise to the top of the Western Conference.

However, Holmgren's chances of pulling off an upset with that kind of case may have taken a serious hit after Wembanyama's monster Monday night. The young OKC big man will likely need to start putting up big, headline-grabbing performances to reel in Wemby in the ROY race.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.