Valspar Championship: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

After THE PLAYERS Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, the PGA Tour stays in Florida this week for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, FL.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Valspar Championship Info
Innisbrook (Copperhead) Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,352 yards (long)
• Average Fairway Width: 27.7 yards (very tight)
• Average Green Size: 5,822 square feet (a little smaller than average)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: 12
• Recent Winning Scores: -12, -10, -17, -17
• Recent Cut Lines: E, +1, -3, -1
  • This event was canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Innisbrook (Copperhead) Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Par 5 Scoring
• Proximity from 175+

Overall, there's a somewhat similar angle this week at Innisbrook and TPC Sawgrass, where water lingers, accuracy tends to win out over distance, and there's a de-emphasis (statistically) on putting importance.

The last nine winners were all 13th or better in strokes gained: tee to green during their victories, and only last year's winner (Peter Malnati -- 13th in SG:T2G) was worse than sixth in SG:T2G during their win.

Winners have largely putted well, yes, but you can't really fake your way around the Copperhead Course.

The par 5s are really the only holes that play easy relative to par, other than the 380-yard par 4 12th, so par 5 scoring is in play this week.

The proximity distribution skews long (175-plus yards) based on the overall length and hole layout (doglegs, water, tight fairways).

Valspar Championship Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last four years of this event, including their strokes gained data at this event. (Reminder, the 2020 iteration was canceled.)

Valspar Championship Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

Valspar Championship Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Update: Weather for the Valspar Championship looks to be severe with advantages for the early/late wave.

Tommy Fleetwood

• Odds To Win the Valspar Championship (+1100)
• To Finish Top 10 (+130)
• To Finish Top 20 (-165)

Update: Fleetwood is teeing off early/late, expected to be the more advantageous wave.

I'm okay to go back to Tommy Fleetwood this week because this is a tough track, and Fleetwood's all-around game tends to transition well at these types of setups.

Last week at THE PLAYERS, Fleetwood finished T14. He was T11 at Bay Hill the week prior, and he finished T5 at The Genesis Invitational before that.

At the Valspar in 2023 and 2022, Fleetwood's only starts at Innisbrook, he finished T3 and T16, respectively.

Fleetwood has gained strokes from approach play in 22 of his last 25 starts and from off-the-tee play in just as many.

The putter can come and go, but the precision off the tee and complete game puts Fleetwood into contention territory for sure this week.

Corey Conners

• Odds To Win the Valspar Championship (+4000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+360)
• To Finish Top 20 (+180)

Update: Conners is teeing off late/early, expected to be the more disadvantageous wave.

Corey Conners' tee-to-green game is specifically tied to elite accuracy and irons. He ranks 13th in accuracy and 24th in approach over the last 50 rounds.

We've seen that translate to success at Innisbrook's Copperhead course, as he has finished T21 in 2021 and T16 in 2018, his only two starts. He struck the ball extremely well in those eight rounds but struggled around the green.

His around-the-green game has trended up long-term, and that puts Conners into the mix this week as one of the best ball-strikers in the field (ninth over the last 50 rounds) at a course that rewards T2G game.

Lucas Glover

• Odds To Win the Valspar Championship (+7000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+550)
• To Finish Top 20 (+250)

Update: Glover is teeing off late/early, expected to be the more disadvantageous wave.

Ranking 8th in accuracy, 7th in approach, and 32nd in putting, Lucas Glover has the tools to win this week at the Copperhead course at Innisbrook.

Glover has picked up fairways on the field in nine straight starts and used that to finish T3 last week at THE PLAYERS where he gained strokes in all four facets.

Glover's form at Innisbrook is lengthy (66 rounds since 2004) with six straight made cuts, as well. That includes a solo 11th last year.

Jacob Bridgeman

• Odds To Win the Valspar Championship (+5500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+500)
• To Finish Top 20 (+220)

Update: Bridgeman is teeing off early/late, expected to be the more advantageous wave.

I'm adding in Bridgeman here as someone who drew the good wave.

Bridgeman's a top-10 putter over the last 50 rounds among this field, and while his ball-striking is subpar long-term, his irons are on fire over the last four starts.

He's now 43rd in strokes gained: tee to green over the last 36 rounds and 32nd in approach over the last 20.

Billy Horschel

• Odds To Win the Valspar Championship (+8000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+600)
• To Finish Top 20 (+280)

Update: Horschel is teeing off early/late, expected to be the more advantageous wave.

Horschel's game right now isn't great exactly, yet over the last 50 rounds, he still rates out as a pretty average golfer with plus strokes gained stats after field strength adjustments (albeit barely positive in the ball-striking stats).

Horschel's history here is spotty (three missed cuts out of five starts), though he seemed to solve it in his first start since 2018 when he finished T12 last year.

With +360 odds to finish inside the top-20 and +800 odds to finish inside the top-10, Horschel rates out as enough of a value in my model to get back in on him this week.

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