Valero Alamo Bowl: Best Bets and Player Props for BYU vs. Colorado

Nearly any bowl game outside of the College Football Playoff typically features major players sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft. That's not the case for the Brigham Young Cougars against the Colorado Buffaloes as the Valero Alamo Bowl will feature two top-five prospects in the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and potentially the first quarterback selected in the 2025 NFL Draft Shedeur Sanders.

This is Colorado's first bowl appearance since 2020, which was also the Alamo Bowl. Meanwhile, BYU has appeared in the postseason in six of the last seven seasons. Will the Buffaloes win their first bowl game since 2004, or will the Cougars snatch their first bowl win since 2022 following a postseason absence in 2023?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's dive into the best bets for Saturday's Alamo Bowl with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

BYU vs. Colorado Betting Picks

Colorado -3.5 (-118)

Despite being Big 12 foes, BYU and Colorado did not meet this season, and it will be the 13th all-time meeting between the two as the Buffaloes lead the series with a 8-3-1 record.

This is shaping up to be a good one as the two finished in the four-way tie atop Big 12 regular-season standings. While both fell short of the Big 12 Championship, the Alamo Bowl is one of the best postseason games outside of the New Year's Six. Adding to the hype, each team is expected to be full go as the Buffs are providing insurance for their draft prospects.

With that said, which side is the best bet? Loaded with glitzy stars, the Buffs are perceived to have the advantage as 3.5-point favorites. However, prediction models are siding with BYU. For example, numberFire's college football game predictions has Colorado winning 22.4-22.0 while College Football Nerds' prediction model has the Cougs winning 26.8-25.3.

It's difficult to overlook BYU's 1-2 stretch to end the regular season, though. The Cougars haven't covered a game since October 26th! While CU's 37-21 loss against the Kansas Jayhawks on November 23rd causes some pause, it redeemed itself in the final week of the regular season with a 52-0 thumping of the Oklahoma State Cowboys (the Buffs were 14.5-point favorites).

Don't expect this one to be a trouncing as BYU carries some advantages. That includes the Buffaloes ranking 43rd in EPA allowed per rushing attempt compared to 24th in EPA allowed per drop back. Meanwhile, the Cougars show better efficiency in the run at 22nd in EPA per carry compared to 36th in EPA per drop back. Plus, Colorado is already in the bottom 3% of rush-play rate and yards per rushing attempt on offense.

However, a slide felt imminent for BYU most of the season due to its struggles on key downs. The Cougs are in the bottom 14% of third down conversion rate and bottom 33% of third down defense. This reared its ugly teeth over the final month of play, and Colorado is in the top half of third down offense and defense. The Buffs are even in the top 3% of red zone scoring rate allowed.

Adding fuel to the fire, CU forces 2.2 turnovers per game (top 4%) while BYU gives up 1.6 turnovers per contest (bottom 36%). The Buffaloes take care of the ball at 1.1 turnovers per game (top 22%), potentially offsetting the Cougs' 2.4 takeaways per contest (the most).

If Colorado is winning a long list of key categories, including third downs and the red zone, a cover is in the picture.

Under 54.5 Points (-110)

Probably the biggest lesson from prediction models is the total. numberFire is giving the under a 72.5% likelihood compared to the -110 odds for the under carrying only a 52.4% implied probability.

The stats check out, too, making this a clear pick. We mentioned BYU's inability to convert third downs while turning the ball over. That should cut some successful drives short.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado is about as dependent as it gets on the pass, sporting a 60.8% pass-play rate (fourth-highest). BYU excels most at defending the pass on defense, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per drop back compared to 27th against the run. We don't need to worry about the run too much with the Buffaloes logging a measly 2.6 yards per rushing attempt (third-fewest).

For the most part, Colorado has done an excellent job of taking care of the ball. But we can't completely ignore that the Cougars lead college football in takeaways per contest. The Buffaloes will likely be more vulnerable in giving the ball away, ending more promising drives.

We could see some messy offense ahead with each defense in the top five of takeaways per game.

Travis Hunter Over 102.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

To come out on top, Colorado is going to have to find some success through the air. BYU's recent loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils provides some comfort.

ASU is 15th in EPA per drop back compared to the Buffaloes ranking 25th in the category. The Sun Devils are a completely different beast as most defenses are worried about Cam Skattebo and the run game. Still, ASU is in the bottom 10 of pass-play rate. The unit still managed to rack up 247 passing yards and 9.9 yards per passing attempt against BYU.

The Cougars had a heck of a time trying to contain ASU's top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who finished with nine receptions for 125 receiving yards. BYU has another problem on its hand, and his name is Travis Hunter.

Hunter's receiving prop is set at a lofty 102.5 receiving yards. However, he has the recent numbers to back it up, averaging 109.6 receiving yards per contest over the last five. Brigham Young has given up at least 8.9 yards per passing attempt in two of its last three appearances; this spells another big day for the Heisman winner.

We know CU has elite efficiency with Shedeur Sanders at the helm, logging 8.6 yards per passing attempt despite putting up 37.8 passing attempts per contest.

After recording at least one 24-yard reception in five straight, look for Hunter to keep producing game-breaking plays, especially against a pass D that has struggled of recent.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.