US Open Women's Semifinals Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 9/5/24

The US Open is into the semifinals, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days. The final four women will compete on Thursday night to determine who advances to Saturday's final.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Reward Stack for those betting the US Open today!

Customers can receive one 30% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager and one 30% Profit Boost for ANY wager on US Open tennis matches happening September 4th or 5th!

How to Claim This Promo

You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button.

You’ll then be awarded the two tokens, which you can manually toggle-on when placing your bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, you can win even bigger on tennis bets with Same Game Parlays—and try new bets like Total Aces in a Match!

US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for September 5th.

Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-126)

Aryna Sablenka has been the favorite to win the US Open since the start of the tournament, and she's looked the part, dropping just one set through five rounds. Even if we include that three-setter, she's covered this spread in every match, and she's fresh off a 6-1, 6-2 dismantling of gold medalist Qinwen Zheng that went just 73 minutes.

Even more impressive, Sabalenka has now won 10 matches in a row dating back to her title run in Cincinnati -- and she didn't drop any sets in that tournament.

It's been fun to see American Emma Navarro emerge as a surprise semifinalist, and her calm demeanor could help her rise to the occasion if the pressure gets to Sabalenka. We saw a similar scenario unfold at last year's US Open, as Aryna cruised into the semis without losing a set, yet barely survived a rollercoaster battle versus Madison Keys and then ultimately fell to Coco Gauff in the final.

However, this will be Navarro's toughest test thus far. She's already had to survive three-setters versus Marta Kostyuk and Gauff, and her quarterfinal match versus Paula Badosa should've gone to a deciding set had Badosa not squandered a 5-1 second set lead.

While Navarro's win over Gauff (world No. 3) might suggest she's ready for Sabalenka, she didn't face the best version of Coco, who largely gift-wrapped the match with a whopping 19 double faults.

Tennis Abstract projects Sabalenka to win 74% of the time while Massey Ratings is even more bullish at 88%. If Sabalenka drops her level, Navarro will definitely make her pay -- we saw Iga Swiatek experience a similar fate in her loss to Jessica Pegula on Wednesday -- but the Belarusian has been on a such a tear this summer that it's hard to see her stumbling so close to the finish line.

Under 7.5 Total Aces (-132)

This mostly comes down to Navarro's aces -- or lack thereof.

Over her five matches, the American has tallied 0, 2, 0, 1, and 0 aces, and her ace rate over the last 52 weeks, per Tennis Abstract, sits at 1.9%. For context, that's the second-lowest rate among players inside the top 50.

Navarro has returned well in the tournament, too, as she's allowed more than two aces just once so far.

Sabalenka has the eighth-best ace rate in that sample (7.5%), but it will be difficult for her to essentially single-handedly exceed this line, particularly if this goes straight sets. In her matches, she's logged 3, 5, 5, 6, and 3 aces.

This could get more dicey if the match goes to a deciding set, but even if that's the case, the fact that Navarro is such a non-factor in this area still gives this bet a solid chance of staying under regardless.

Jessica Pegula vs. Karolina Muchova

Pegula -2.5 Games (-118)

Jessica Pegula will not longer have to field questions about being 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, finally breaking through in her seventh attempt with a statement victory (6-2, 6-4) over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.

However, if she now wants to make her first-ever major final, she'll have her work cut out for her against an in-form Karolina Muchova.

Muchova was a US Open semifinalist in 2023, but following a nine-month layoff from wrist surgery, this is just her sixth tournament this season, and she wasn't expected to be ready to contend for the title just yet. It's safe to say she's ahead of schedule after winning all five rounds in straight sets, which includes wins over two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka, 2024 breakout star Jasmine Paolini, and world No. 21 Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Karolina's all-around game makes her incredibly dangerous, and a multitude of career injuries are arguably the main reason she's yet to win a Grand Slam at age 28. But it's fair to wonder if that latter issue could come into play, as she entered the event with just 11 matches under her belt, giving her body little time to prepare for the physical grind of a two-week major.

Further, having played Wednesday afternoon, Muchova won't be getting a day off in between matches, which could be especially critical given that she struggled through an illness yesterday, as well.

I still expect the Czech player to throw the kitchen sink at Pegula, but perhaps these factors give the American just enough of an edge to pull through. They faced each other before the US Open in Cincinnati, and Pegula outlasted Muchova over three sets (5-7, 6-4, 6-2).

Tennis Abstract is showing a 71% win probability for Pegula while Massey Ratings sees this being slightly closer at 62%. This should be a back-and-forth match, but the American has been on a dream run this summer, winning 14 of her last 15 matches, and perhaps it's finally her time to make her first Grand Slam final.

Place Your Bet Today!

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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