US Open Women's Final Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 9/7/24

The US Open is nearing its conclusion, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches this weekend. The women's final is set to take place on Saturday afternoon between Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Reward Stack for those betting the US Open today!

Customers can receive one 30% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager and one 30% Profit Boost for ANY wager on US Open tennis matches happening September 6th through 8th!

How to Claim This Promo

You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button.

You’ll then be awarded the two tokens, which you can manually toggle-on when placing your bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, you can win even bigger on tennis bets with Same Game Parlays—and try new bets like Total Aces in a Match!

US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for September 7th.

Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Pegula ML (+245)

Pegula was my value pick to win this year's US Open, and despite some shaky moments in Thursday's semifinal against Karolina Muchova, she's now one win away from the finish line.

The American looked dead on arrival versus Muchova, dropping the first set 1-6 and then going down 0-2 to begin the second. But shortly thereafter, she would find her form -- and confidence -- and ultimately go on to prevail 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.

Finding the nerve to mount a comeback under such dire circumstances could be exactly what she needs to have a shot against tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka in the final. Prior to her tough semifinal, Pegula had won in straight sets across all five previous rounds, which included a dominant victory over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.

Sabalenka found herself in nearly the opposite situation in her semifinal against American Emma Navarro. After mostly cruising through the match to a 6-3, 5-3 lead, Navarro would refuse to go away and force a second-set tie break. While Sabalenka would squash the upstart's comeback bid for a 6-3, 7-6(2) win, it brought back memories of Sabalenka's tough matches against Americans Madison Keys (semifinals) and Coco Gauff (final) at the end of last year's US Open where she ultimately fell to Gauff in the title match.

Could history repeat itself as Aryna finds herself against yet another American with the crowd behind them?

Pegula has now won 15 of 16 matches on summer hard courts, and her only loss was to Sabalenka in the Cincinnati final. While Jessica lost that match in straight sets, she was likely gassed after winning the Canadian Open the week before, as the last woman to win both the Canadian and Cincinnati championships did so in 1973.

Including that Cincinnati win, Sabalenka is on an 11-match win streak, and she leads the head-to-head with Pegula 5-2. The American did win their lone meeting in straight sets at the WTA Finals late last year, though, making them 1-1 over the last 52 weeks.

If Sabalenka plays at her peak as she's done for much of this tournament, there might not be much Pegula can do to stop her from lifting the trophy. But all the pressure is on the Belarusian, and after her near slip-up against Navarro, the doubts could quickly creep back in against Pegula in what's effectively an away match.

Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings project Aryna to win 67% and 63% of the time, respectively, which suggests that she could be slightly overvalued as a -310 favorite (76% implied probability).

Backing Pegula to cover as a 4.5-game underdog (-124) is the safer play, but I like the value in picking her to win straight-up for her first major championship.

Pegula ML (+245)
Over 21.5 Total Match Games (-110)
Over 8.5 Total Aces (-108)

Combined SGP Odds: +572

Backing Pegula for the upset already gives enticing odds, but combining these three wagers for a Same Game Parlay could be an option when swinging for the fences.

Even in a loss, it's unlikely Sabalenka self-destructs in straight sets, so a Pegula win would almost certainly come in three sets and exceed 21.5 total match games.

Along the same lines, a longer match would presumably lead to more aces, as well. Sabalenka has been serving well in this tournament, and despite facing the ace-averse Navarro in the semifinals, the two still combined for nine aces over two sets -- with Aryna tallying eight of them.

Per Tennis Abstract, Pegula's 4.0% ace rate is sightly below the 4.8% average among the top 50 players, but it's still significantly meatier than Navarro's 1.9%. Meanwhile, Sabalenka boasts a 7.5% ace rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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