US Open Third Round Betting Guide: Friday 9/1/23

The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

Jakub Mensik vs. Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz 3-0 Sets (-120)

While it's true that Taylor Fritz hasn't exactly blown us away with his play at Grand Slams this year -- he hasn't advanced past the third round -- he's been fantastic on hard courts in 2023 and has won his first two matches comfortably.

Fritz entered this tournament having won 31 of his 40 matches on this surface (77.5% win percentage), which included adding two titles to his name. And since he's arrived, all he's done is win all six of his sets here by scores of 6-2 or better. He's just barely cracked three hours of total court time, a mark players will regularly reach in a single best-of-five match.

Incredibly, he won 100% of his first-serve points and faced zero break points over Steve Johnson in round one. Then, he followed that up with an 82% first-serve win rate while saving all three break points he faced versus Juan Pablo Varillas.

While neither of those players are highly ranked, the same can be said for Fritz's third-round match against 17-year-old Jakub Mensik, who isn't even in the top 200.

Now, it's worth noting that Mensik is an intriguing prospect with future star potential, so he isn't necessarily a run-of-the-mill low-ranked opponent. But at the same time, Mensik hasn't played anyone remotely close to Fritz's caliber yet in his young career.

Mensik's first-round victory was just the second time he's played someone ranked in the 50s, and he lost the previous time he faced a player ranked that high.

FanDuel Sportsbook isn't ready to buy into his potential yet, either. Outside of Novak Djokovic, Fritz is the biggest favorite (-1100) on the men's side for Friday.

Put it all together, and this is a very reasonable number to buy in on Fritz to continue his streak of straight-set wins.

Zhizhen Zhang vs. Rinky Hijikata

Rinky Hijikata ML (+130)

This has less to do with the head-to-head matchup and more to do with the fact that Zhizhen Zhang has now played five sets in two straight matches and logged nearly eight hours on court. The latter win was easily the best of his career, too, after knocking out last year's US Open runner-up, World No. 5 Casper Ruud.

We often see players experience a letdown after these types of upsets, and Zhang has already expended a lot of energy -- both mentally and physically -- just to make it this far.

On the other hand, Rinky Hijikata cruised to an impressive 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 in the second round over Marton Fucsovics, a much-needed routine win after having to go four hours himself in the first round.

Both Zhang and Hijikata are ranked outside the top 50 and have roughly .500 records in ATP-level events in 2023. Neither one came into the US Open with a ton of momentum, either.

According to Tennis Abstract, the lower-ranked Hijikata wins this match 42.0% of the time. That suggests that these are pretty fair odds, and when factoring in Zhang's possible fatigue, backing the underdog feels even better.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.