US Open Second Round Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 8/29/24

The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, gets underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Thursday.

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US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for August 29th.

Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova

Over 2.5 Total Sets (+122)

Naomi Osaka and Karolina Muchova have been working their way back into form this season with Osaka returning from maternity leave in January and Muchova coming back from wrist surgery in June.

While neither one came into New York with noteworthy recent results -- both were one-and-done at the Olympics and made little noise on summer hard courts -- they still managed to advance through the first round in straight sets.

Osaka's win was particularly impressive, defeating world No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko 6-3, 6-2 for her first top-10 win since the beginning of 2020. It was an emotional victory for the two-time US Open champion, as she had expressed doubts about her progress after failing to get through qualifying in Cincinnati ahead of this event.

Meanwhile, Muchova has had even less time to find the form that brought her all the way to the semifinals just a year ago. This is only her sixth tournament in 2024, and while she entered this US Open with a respectable 7-3 record, she went 1-1 in Cincinnati, her lone hard-court tune-up event.

Muchova won her first-round match in fairly routine fashion (6-3, 7-5) over Katie Volynets, though this was perhaps a more expected result considering Volynets was just 3-4 on summer hard courts, most of which had come in qualifying matches.

While Naomi's win over Ostapenko could be the sign of a breakthrough -- and she's a -137 favorite to win this match -- it's telling that both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings still favor Muchova, projecting win probabilities of 56% and 66%, respectively. Truthfully, it's difficult to gauge a winner, knowing that these are two formidable players when they're at their best but haven't had much time to readjust to hard courts and prove their level following the Olympics.

Therefore, predicting this match to reach a deciding set could be the way to go. Tennis Abstract's model is backing Muchova as just a slight favorite, and while Massey Ratings is more bullish, it still predicts three sets as the most likely outcome. We should have a good one on our hands to begin the primetime window in Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Botic van De Zandschulp

Under 27.5 Total Match Games (-112)

Carlos Alcaraz and Botic van De Zandschulp will follow the ladies on Arthur Ashe tonight, but unlike the previous match, this one figures to be much more one-sided.

Like many players, Alcaraz suffered a noticeable lull following the Olympics, suffering a shocking loss to a past-his-prime Gael Monfils in his lone Cincinnati match, giving him little preparation before the US Open. He also was caught off guard by qualifier Li Tu in his first-round match, dropping the second set before eventually righting the ship and cruising to a 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 win.

Still, despite the brief hiccup in that opening match, Alcaraz dominated the stat sheet across the board, winning 80% of his first-serve points, 66% of his second-serve points, and 48% of his return points. Had he converted more than 7 of a whopping 19 break points, it could've been a rather routine night at the office.

If Alcaraz plays at his usual level from start to finish, it's difficult to see van De Zandschulp giving him much trouble. Botic came into the tournament with a poor 11-18 record for the year (5-10 on hard courts), and he spent the majority of the summer in Challenger-level clay events. Winston-Salem was the only North American hard-court event he entered before the US Open, and he was promptly defeated in the opening round.

Although van De Zandschulp advanced through the first round in straight sets over Denis Shapovalov, Shapovalov is another player who's mostly struggled in 2024 with a 15-19 record.

Botic also has a poor track record against top players. He's just 6-19 versus top-10 players over his career and has lost seven straight against them. At Grand Slams, he's 0-6 versus top-10 opponents, winning just one set in those matches.

Add in that Alcaraz is 2-0 versus van De Zandschulp and has never dropped a set against him, and this has all the makings of a dominant win for the Spaniard. Both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings give Alcaraz a 95%-plus win probability.

Given that Alcaraz is -270 to win in straight sets, taking under 27.5 games is the better value to target. Although this is a rather low total to stay below, we should expect a more focused and determined Alcaraz after dropping that set in his first match.

Under 11.5 Total Aces (-126)

While Carlos tallied 8 aces in the first round, we can also consider taking Under 11.5 Total Aces as another way to bet this match.

We saw van De Zandschulp fail to notch a single ace in the first round, and Alcaraz is one of the very best returners in the sport. The Spaniard ranks fourth in return rating, and he owns the fifth-best ace rate against (5.2%) inside the top 50 players, per Tennis Abstract.

Botic also limits aces against (5.7%), and neither competitor tends to post dominant ace numbers, with the Dutch player ranking 50th in aces per match (5.5) and the Spaniard ranking 59th (4.5).

Even if Alcaraz has another strong serving performance, this match should stay below this number, particularly if it goes just three sets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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