US Open First Round Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 8/27/24

The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, gets underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which first-round matches could have the most betting value on Tuesday.

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US Open Best Bets

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Naomi Osaka

Ostapenko ML (+128)

Neither of these two come into the US Open in their best form, but we could still have an exciting match on our hands between a pair of former Grand Slam champions.

It hasn't been the best few weeks for world No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko, who bowed out in the opening round of the Olympics and then logged quick exits at both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open. Being defeated by "lucky losers" in back-to-back matches is probably not how Ostapenko envisioned performing right before the season's final major.

However, right before that stretch, the Latvian was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon, losing to eventual champion Barbora Krejcikova. She also won a pair of hard-court WTA 500 titles earlier this season in Adelaide and Linz.

Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka continues to work her way back after sitting out the 2023 season on maternity leave. Since returning in January, she's predictably had her ups and downs, amassing an 18-15 overall record, and like Ostapenko, her most recent results haven't been encouraging. Osaka was bounced in the first round at the Olympics, she won just one match in Canada, and she couldn't even make it through qualifying at Cincinnati.

But in contrast to Ostapenko, there aren't many notable 2024 results to fall back on to suggest that the two-time US Open champion version of Osaka is ready to emerge.

Osaka very narrowly lost a French Open second-round match to top-ranked Iga Swiatek -- she at one point led 5-2 in the deciding set -- which seemed like a potential turning point, but she's since gone just 5-6. Following her qualifying loss in Cincinnati, she admitted to "missing balls I shouldn't miss, hitting balls softer than I remember I used to."

Tennis Abstract projects a 64% win probability for Ostapenko, and Massey Ratings gives her a 61% chance. While Ostapenko's recent play is a slight concern, it feels like Osaka is being pegged as the favorite based on name recognition alone, and being able to back the Latvian at plus money is appealing.

Emma Raducanu vs. Sofia Kenin

Raducanu 2-0 Sets (-115)

Emma Raducanu and Sofia Kenin come into the US Open on somewhat similar paths as players who each won a major early in their careers but have struggled with form and injuries in the years that have followed. Kenin was the surprise winner of the 2020 Australian Open at age 21 while Raducanu quickly rose to fame by lifting the 2021 US Open trophy at just 18 years old as a qualifier.

Fast forward to 2024, and neither one is ranked inside the top 50.

Under the circumstances, it's a tricky draw for both players, but Raducanu is the one who's shown more promise across the past few months. Over the grass season, she reached the semis at Nottingham and quarters at Eastbourne, and then she capped it off by reaching the round of 16 at Wimbledon. Although she curiously played just one hard-court tournament this summer, Raducanu also reached the quarterfinals in Washington.

In contrast, little has gone right for Kenin, who comes in with an 8-20 record this season. Including a qualifying match, she went through a five-match losing streak this summer, and after breaking that streak in Cleveland, she promptly lost the following round. Worse yet, her record on hard courts for the entire year sits at 2-11 (including qualifying) and just two of those losses came versus a top-30 opponent.

Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings don't see this one being close, projecting win probabilities for Raducanu of 74% and 83%, respectively. We should like her chances of winning in straight sets versus an opponent who's looks to be far from peak form.

Bianca Andreescu vs. Jasmine Paolini

Paolini -2.5 Games (-122)

Bianca Andreescu is probably getting sick of seeing Jasmine Paolini, as this will her third straight major facing the Italian, and she lost the previous two encounters.

After sitting out for roughly 10 months due to injury, Andreescu returned to the court in May for the French Open and has endured mixed results (8-6). Including the Olympics, the 2019 US Open champion enters this event on a three-match losing streak, and her opening round losses at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open are the only hard-court matches she's played in 2024.

On the other hand, Paolini has enjoyed by far the best campaign of her career, achieving her highest ever ranking (world No. 5) while becoming a back-to-back Grand Slam finalist across the French Open and Wimbledon. While she went just 1-1 at Cincinnati before coming to New York, her loss came against rising star Mirra Andreeva, and she won a hard-court title earlier this year at Dubai, a WTA 1000 event.

Tennis Abstract backs Paolini to win this match 62% of the time, and Massey Ratings bumps that up to 71%. The Italian has comfortably covered this spread in both matches against Andreescu, and considering the divide in their 2024 performances, we should expect Paolini to do so again tonight in primetime.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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