UFC Vegas 97 Best Bets: Burns vs. Brady

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 97: Burns vs. Brady, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Betting Picks

Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson

Garcia by KO/TKO (-115)

At this point, I've just got to keep playing Steve Garcia's knockout prop until it misses.

I modeled "Mean Machine" with one of the highest individual "method of victory" results I've ever returned in July, projecting him to win by knockout 61.4% of the time at +125 odds. He did just that in the first round. Garcia has now won all four of his 145-pound appearances by KO/TKO within 6.5 minutes, and his 3.40% knockdown rate is the highest of any active UFC fighter in any division with at least eight total fights.

Books are getting more aggressive setting this prop, but it might still not be high enough for Saturday's bout against Kyle Nelson. Nelson has caught a bit of a hot streak to win a pair of split decisions followed by a TKO of Bill Algeo in March, but he's far from flawless with average striking defense (52%) and three career losses by early finish.

My model is even more optimistic about a Garcia knockout against Nelson, giving it a 62.0% likelihood of cashing. Until I see someone trade with Mean Machine for 15 minutes, I'll keep going to the well with his elite power.

Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva

Andrade to Win (+245)
Andrade by Points (+600)

Though Jessica Andrade has been a much better bet at 115 pounds than 125 pounds, this number is disrespectful.

The former strawweight champ is still 2-2 in this division with losses to a pair of top-five contenders, Valentina Shevchenko and Erin Blanchfield. She also set this division's record for significant strikes landed in a fight (231) against Lauren Murphy. Notably, she was finished on the ground in both setbacks -- something we've yet to see kickboxer Natalia Silva do at a passable -- much less elite -- level, per zero career submission attempts.

Silva's first ranked test didn't go extremely well, either. She was unable to separate from the uninspiring grip of a 37-year-old Vivi Araujo (6-5 UFC) to allow over six minutes in control time and post an insignificant +12 striking differential.

At this stage in each's career, Andrade (+1.25 striking success rate) is a much more potent threat on the feet than Vivi (-0.85 SSR), and her takedown volume (2.55 landed per 15 minutes) and accuracy (55%) are superior. She's also in her prime at 31.

If Silva barely squeaked by Araujo, Andrade could certainly do a slight bit more to eek out two rounds in a fight -126 to go the distance. I've got the underdog 48.2% likely to win this fight, and 34.8% of the time, it's her coming out on top via decision.

Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady

Burns to Win (+152)

The market surprised me on this fight.

I expected Gilbert Burns' number to soar all week against Sean Brady, whose lone UFC setback came to this division's new champion, Belal Muhammad. At 31 years old to Burns' 38, I expected bettors to take a "changing of the guard" approach, but Burns' moneyline actually shortened from +162 on Sunday to +152 here.

Brady's UFC career is a challenging one to piece together. He's dominated six unranked opponents physically to post 3.17 takedowns per fight in his six wins, but in his lone loss, Muhammad stuffed the shots. Unable to get the champ to the ground on five attempts, Brady was left exhausted and like a fish out of water in the second round against a guy notorious for a lack of power. He's still the only knockout victim of Belal's career.

If Burns, a world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, sees his largely untested takedown defense hold, he should have paths to win this fight. Burns has faced five current top-10 fighters, they only tried three total takedowns. Khamzat Chimaev (7-0 UFC) landed a pair. Most just don't mess around on the ground with "Durinho".

Inevitably, Brady will try. At his age, you'd have to figure he probably still does have to be the favorite to have enough wrestling success to neutralize Burns at times, but I'm significantly worried about his endurance from doing so and getting caught at distance again. My model has Brady as 58.0% likely to win this fight, but that leaves a bit of betting value on the former title challenger.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.