UFC Vegas 96 Best Bets: Cannonier vs. Borralho

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 96: Cannonier vs. Borralho, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho Betting Picks

Zachary Reese vs. Jose Medina

Reese by Submission (+220)
Reese by Submission in Round 1 (+410)

Though Zachary Reese posted a highlight knockout in his last fight, I'm expecting Reese to get back to the mat in this one.

Between a trip on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) and two UFC appearances, Reese has posted 8.9 submission attempts per 15. Some of that is wonky having yet to see a third minute in any appearance, but it does show the tendency to look for the sub first as he did before that 20-second KO of Julian Marquez.

If we learned anything about Jose Medina on his DWCS bid, it's that he is durable. He survived 73 significant strikes -- many with thudding impact -- and 6 takedowns (on 7 attempts) to avoid getting finished by kickboxer Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, but Gadzhyasulov has yet to show any submission danger in his pro MMA career.

Reese, on the other hand, is a high-volume threat. I'm taking the angle that one of UFC's most exciting middleweights finds another first-round finish by exploiting Medina's lack of grappling prowess -- not toughness.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Shahbazyan by KO/TKO in Round 1 or Round 2 (-105)
Meerschaert by Submission in Round 2 or Round 3 (+750)

This is a showcase of how you can get creative on an overwhelming line in UFC. This fight between Edmen Shahbazyan and Gerald Meerschaert is -600 to not go the distance, but there's a very clear chasm of why that is the case.

At 36 years old, Meerschaert's durability has started to fail him. He's been knocked out in the first round during 3 of his last 10 fights, which is even more telling as he's been largely matched up with grapplers. Shahbazyan's 1.72% knockdown rate is massive; he's an ideal candidate to test this chin in undoubtedly its worst form to date. He's won by knockout in the first 10 minutes in 5 of his 11 appearances.

On the flip side, "The Golden Boy" has a notoriously short gas tank. He's been stopped in the second or third round during three of his four losses. We know jiu-jitsu ace "GM3" (1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes) will look to jump on the neck if he survives an early flurry, and he's cinched up seven career UFC submissions in the final 10 minutes.

My model has Shahbazyan's knockout (31.5%) almost twice as likely as Meerschaert's submission (17.5%), so by playing 1.05 units on Shahbazyan's prop and 0.2 units on Meerschaert's prop, I've created a bet to risk 1.25 units to win a minimum of 0.85 units (about -145) forecasting the same projected style of fight that FanDuel has to set the total.

Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci

Ricci by Points (+140)

It might be wise to avoid the moneyline for decision props in this one. My model has this fight 86.0% likely to go the distance as Angela Hill and Tabatha Ricci have combined for 15 decisions in their 17 strawweight starts since the COVID break in 2020.

With that the case, I don't believe Ricci should be longer to win a decision. Her primary case in this fight is a 10-year reduction in age from the surging Hill, who has seemed like a different fighter amid this run of four wins in five starts.

It's largely been based in level of competition, though. Hill is 2-8 in her UFC career against fighters currently ranked in this division's top 15. The 11th-ranked "Baby Shark" fits the criteria with excellent wrestling (2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes) that gave Angie fits against Mackenzie Dern (9-5 UFC).

Hill's +0.52 striking success rate (SSR) is better than Ricci's (-0.66), but it might not matter with sub-0.20% knockdown rates on both sides. This fight should largely be decided in grappling exchanges, which is why I've got the younger Ricci 52.4% likely to win. The model also projects that it'll happen on the scorecards 45.9% of the time.

Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho

Borralho in Round 4, Round 5, or by Points (+130)

Carlos Prates' insane knockout last week was a fresh reminder that UFC's quickest rising gym, Fighting Nerds from Brazil, are no joke.

The Fighting Nerds team leader is Caio Borralho, who gets his first career main event after a knockout of his own against Paul Craig (9-8-1 UFC) in May. That was a complete change of pace for "The Natural" after using his grappling to dominate seven prior foes. Overall, he's posted elite wresting efficiency (63%). In four of his six UFC starts, he's spent over 30.0% of the fight in control of his opponents, totaling at least 10 minutes of control time in two of those.

Borralho's ground game is an organic mismatch for Jared Cannonier's 61% takedown defense. This might be masked because the 40-year-old "Killa Gorilla" has been in striking wars of late -- a common theme for most middleweights. Nonetheless, Cannonier has ceded at least three takedowns to the last four opponents he's faced averaging at least 2.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Borralho (1.99) is ostensibly right on that average and would have a higher rate if he wasn't so good at controlling guys.

On youth, attrition, and this matchup, I've got Borralho modeled as 65.2% likely to win Saturday's main event, and I've got the fight 61.3% likely to start Round 4. Combining them together at plus coin in this market is a solid proposition.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.