UFC Vegas 95 Best Bets: Tybura vs. Spivac 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs. Spivac 2, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 Betting Picks

Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar

Luciano by Points (+130)

This isn't a card flush with fighters that have useful data, so it helps that a vast majority of Stephanie Luciano and Talita Alencar's fight data came against each other.

They squared off on Dana White's Contender Series in 2023, and the fight went to a draw. However, inside the fighting stats, Luciano absolutely dominated. In Round 1, she landed two fewer significant strikes but on much better accuracy (50%) than Alencar (41%). The latter just landed two of five takedown attempts to sneak out a tight round.

In Round 2, Luciano started separating, defending seven of nine takedowns and outlanding Alencar 18 to 9 in significant strikes with elite accuracy (56%). She mauled a fatigued Alencar for a +45 striking differential in the final stanza to score a 10-8 round on all three judges' cards, but Luciano would have snuck out the win if two judges felt like she won a second round that appeared should have gone her way in the box score.

Now, in the rematch on Saturday, Luciano has seen Alencar's takedown attempts that got less and less successful throughout the first fight. She's also just 24 years old and in an improvement window that Alencar, 33, has long exited.

Though Luciano's moneyline (-168) makes plenty of sense, all of these women's UFC-affiliated outcomes have gone to the cards, fitting a familiar trend at women's strawweight. I'll take Luciano to continue the success from these ladies' first bout and win a more convincing decision than last fall's.

Karl Williams vs. Jhonata Diniz

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (-134)
Williams by KO/TKO or Submission (+220)

Jhonata Diniz hasn't seen an eighth minute yet, and that trend figures to continue with such different acumen in the different areas of MMA.

Diniz is a former GLORY kickboxing stud, similar to 205-pound champion Alex Pereira, but the grappling area of his game isn't rounded out. He ceded the first takedown of Austen Lane's career in his last fight and was nearly finished via strikes after being controlled for 83.3% of that first round.

Lane (0-2 UFC) fatigued in the second round to lose by knockout, yet that's no fluke when Diniz's knockdown rate (6.67%) is gigantic in a small sample thus far. Expect Karl Williams to produce a similar outcome in either area.

Williams has gotten the reputation of a snoozer with all four of his UFC-affiliated wins coming via decision. That's been on the back of 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and not much action on the feet. Landing 110 significant strikes in his last two fights, Williams hears the noise and has been gunning his first career finish; his last two foes just toughed out his advances.

When Diniz was nearly drowned by an amateur wrestler in his official debut, Williams could put himself in a dominant finishing position. If Diniz can keep this fight at distance, his power could quickly end it on the feet. I like violence here with a small, additional play that it's Williams' elite ground game that ends up winning out.

Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad

Rosa by Points (-125)

Even I couldn't believe this incredible model result.

Karol Rosa was -180 to win on Sunday, which has ballooned to -215 through weigh-ins. I totally get that, having her modeled at -200 to win this bout with Pannie Kianzad.

That's not a real betting advantage, though. Rosa's supreme activity, landing 1.60 more significant strikes per minute and 0.76 more takedowns per 15 minutes on better efficiency than Kianzad, should allow her to win this fight. I'm just surprised that, with that projection to win, her outlook for a decision is so short.

Rosa's knockdown rate (0.23%) is not large, and Pannie Kianzad hasn't been knocked out in 10 UFC-affiliated appearances. Kianzad has been submitted twice by the same fighter (Macy Chiasson) in this period, but Rosa hasn't authored a submission attempt in 405 octagon minutes. That's a huge reason why all nine of Rosa's UFC appearances have gone to a decision.

This fight is -460 to go the distance, yet I've got an even more confident result (91.4% likely) in the model. Rosa's two regional submission wins long, long ago might be fooling bettors into thinking she can replicate Chiasson's success, but top grapplers at women's 135 like Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington haven't had such luck facing Pannie.

I've got Rosa modeled at 58.3% likely (-140 implied) to win a decision, so even these short odds aren't short enough.

Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac

Spivac in Round 4, 5, or by Decision (+230)

Serghei Spivac lost convincingly in a matchup against Marcin Tybura in February 2020, so some bettors might be inclined to be the underdog, "Tybur", in this rematch at +130.

That result not withstanding, a lot of evidence points to "The Polar Bear" avenging that loss. The statistical median for a UFC champion is 30, and he's now 29 years old when he was just 25 in the two's first matchup. Conversely, Tybura was 34 and now enters 38 years old entering his second career main event. That's a huge swing in the Moldovan's direction.

Both of these gentleman were round-one victims of heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, but Spivac's experience against both Ciryl Gane and Derrick Lewis -- two other former title challengers -- is another advantage.

On paper, these fighters are very similar in terms of striking output. Spivac's -0.25 striking success rate (SSR) is worse than Tybura's (+0.25), but he more than overcomes that with 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with tremendous 64% accuracy. Tybura (1.53) struggles to maintain that pace with poorer accuracy (33%), and trying to keep up in a 25-minute fight could also jeopardize his gas tank.

That last point is extremely notable for me as neither of these gentleman has seen a fourth or fifth round in UFC. At 38 years old and a usual purveyor of deep breaths in the third round, I'm concerned Tybura's endurance might not be in it for the long haul against Spivac's tremendous pace in the rematch.

I've got Spivac 54.0% likely to win this fight, and I'm showing it 66.9% likely to start Round 4. This bet wonderfully encapsulates my longevity concerns about Tybura while also adding that, if both gentleman do make it to the finish line, I prefer Spivac's activity to get the nod on the scorecards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.