UFC Vegas 91: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs. Perez, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Maheshate vs. Gabriel Benitez

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This is one of UFC's weakest cards from top to bottom ever, so as you'd expect, we're not dealing with surging martial artists in the very first fight.

China's Maheshate is someone I've sold in all three UFC appearances, and I've only been bitten once as undersized featherweight Steve Garcia (4-2 UFC) got smashed by him when up in weight. All in all, Maheshate is a one-dimensional striker without a takedown or submission attempt yet, and he's struggled to defend strikes (49%) or takedowns (45%).

Yet, I think his worst quality is a 26% striking accuracy that hasn't remotely bothered either of his last two opponents. I see the 24-year-old -- who could improve -- as a knockout-or-bust proposition in this fight with UFC veteran Gabriel Benitez.

Don't get me wrong; "Moggly" is a former 145er that has lost four of his last seven fights before the final bell, so it's entirely possible the younger lightweight's power is simply too much. However, there's no doubt who the more skilled fighter here is. Benitez's 41% striking accuracy and 62% striking defense are vastly superior, and he's got a whopping 10 career wins via submission.

He's the first fighter Maheshate has faced that averages over 0.3 submission attempts per 15, and Benitez (1.0) is a high-volume threat at that. I could see that being the way this fight ends, but the 35-year-old should win minutes on the feet, too.

This is truly testing the durability of an aging veteran, but we get a quality number to find out if he can still hang.

Betting Verdict

• Benitez is one of my favorite underdogs on the card right out of the gate. Each of his last three losses (all early finishes) came to fighters with a combined 35 UFC wins. Maheshate's inefficiency should be a welcome reprieve should he be able to handle his power.
• This fight is +136 to see under 1.5 rounds, which would greatly favor Maheshate. I lean toward the over (-174) when seeing a wide arrange of approaches from Moggly.

DFS Verdict

• Benitez ($13) is a crucial value play in a range above the punting tier but below the mid-range where I don't love many others this week. He could end up being my highest-drafted fighter overall.

Ivana Petrovic vs. Liang Na

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This pivot for Liang Na continues to make no sense to me.

Na's 0-2 run at strawweight led to a move to 125 pounds late last year in Singapore, and it allowed JJ Aldrich (8-5 UFC) to scoop up her only career win via finish. I've got minimal hope left for the Chinese product when she's combined a putrid 27% striking defense with having yet to successfully defend a UFC takedown.

Even if you look at her six combined takedowns on Aldrich and Ariane Carnelossi (2-2 UFC) for hope, there really isn't any. Both reversed Na and secured more control time than she did -- and found the finish. This seems like a rebound spot for Ivana Petrovic after a poor debut.

The 29-year-old Norwegian is still rounding out her striking, but she proved to be a solid ground fighter with three wins via finish in that realm with Ares FC, a minor-league promotion for the big show. Luana Carolina (5-3 UFC) was a brutal test for her style with a 76% takedown D that's handily turned away other somewhat successful ground fighters in UFC such as Julija Stoliarenko (2-5 UFC) and Loopy Godinez (7-4 UFC).

However, this matchup is tailor-made for her. Na's unmanageable ground issues only got worse in her flyweight debut, and Petrovic still dented Carolina's wrestling defense to secure two takedowns and over four minutes of ground control time.

The last two times we've seen "Dragon Girl" on the mat, she was finished. I love this betting number to make it 3-for-3.

Betting Verdict

• Petrovic's 75% finish rate with Ares FC -- plus Liang Na's own issues staying in the fight on the mat -- makes her inside-the-distance prop (-180) seem like a bargain compared to a -500 moneyline.

DFS Verdict

• Even while optimistic Petrovic finds a finish at some point, the trends of this women's flyweight division point away from one. We've got better MVP candidates to come, but Ivana is a solid flex play at $23.

James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

A key measuring stick just isn't doing to James Llontop any favors to supposedly lay -420 in his debut.

Llontop's effort on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) was, analytically, impressive. He posted a +3.00 striking success rate (SSR) with excellent defensive efficiency (74%). His opponent, Malik Lewis, just wasn't a UFC-level fighter. Lewis was stopped in under eight minutes by inefficient slugger Trevor Peek (2-2 UFC), and Lewis' endurance has expired past the five-minute mark in both appearances.

As evidence of that, Lewis landed two of four takedowns to win the first round against the Peruvian, but he went 0-for-3 during the rest of the fight. If Lewis had gas for all 15 minutes, his wrestling could have proved to be an issue. Chris Padilla might have that gas.

The regional California vet has a much worse professional record (13-7) than you normally see get a UFC call -- even on four days' notice like this. However, a stop through Bellator and a second-round, ground-and-pound finish of UFC veteran Justin Jaynes (1-4 UFC) in his last fight put him on the radar for a contract.

I'm betting a few heavy favorites on this card with minimal experience, but it's due to extremely poor samples on the other side. Padilla's flaws might be worse than Lewis', but this wide line -- even on limited notice -- is simply too high.

Betting Verdict

• Llontop's inferior performance to Peek's has me entirely out at cost. I haven't -- and likely won't -- get to the window with Padilla. No other props are available on this fight yet.

DFS Verdict

• When Llontop enters with a 46.2% decision rate again competition against poor competition, I feel Padilla ($10) will be around for a while here to collect fantasy points at a punt-level salary.

Ketlen Souza vs. Marnic Mann

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

UFC fighters haven't come in as unsuccessful as Marnic Mann in a long time. She and Westin Wilson (0-2 UFC) are vying for the bottom of UFC's rankings on a pound-for-pound basis.

Mann flunked her DWCS bid, defending just 19% of strikes from Bruna Brasil (1-2 UFC) and losing via a second-round knockout. Then, Josefine Knutsson (1-0 UFC) needed a short-notice debut opponent, and the Swede took it easy on Mann to not finish her despite a +73 striking differential where she landed 63% of her significant strikes. "The Sawed-Off Savage" has a horrid 31% striking D and 16% takedown D entering this fight with Ketlen Souza. Her size is a huge issue, standing 5'0" as the smallest strawweight on the roster.

Souza made 115 pounds for the first time as a pro on Friday, adding even more ambiguity to her return fight from an ugly knee injury against Karine Silva (3-0 UFC). The now-ranked Silva was a ridiculous debut for her in hindsight, and she didn't really get the opportunity to fight before getting her leg snatched. She landed zero significant strikes.

Given Silva has finished two other multi-time winners via first-round submission, I'm much more lenient on Souza's body of work than Mann's. In over 24 minutes of cage time, Mann has been awful everywhere with genuinely no dangerous or efficient offensive skills. If Souza is simply a UFC-level striker or grappler, she likely finds a way around her.

Betting Verdict

• Souza's moneyline (-370) is absurd for all of her own questions, but she'll be the more talented fighter in the cage. I was expecting to sit this fight out, but her inside-the-distance prop (+230) is too long when Mann was finished by another aggressive striker on DWCS.

DFS Verdict

• I'm more open to Souza ($19) in this format when Mann has ceded a minimum of 85 FanDuel points in both appearances. If Knutsson was more aggressive hunting for a third-round finish, that number likely exceeds 100. She's largely a punching bag on a per-minute basis.

Caio Machado vs. Don'Tale Mayes

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

As someone who backed Caio Machado in his UFC debut against Mick Parkin (4-0 UFC), I left the fight with a great deal of confidence that Machado would become a UFC winner soon.

"Bigfoot" posted a +37 striking differential against the fellow rising prospect, and he defended 7 of Parkin's 10 takedown attempts. Machado had issues returning to his feet (6:23 in control time allowed) once planted, but that's not an issue unique to just him in this heavyweight division. Most of the time, you'll barely face a wrestling threat.

Caio's peripherals couldn't be much stronger through the Parkin fight and his DWCS bid. He's posted a +4.70 SSR with elite striking accuracy (64%) and defense (64%). Don'Tale Mayes is going to have to find a way to plant him to be successful here.

It's not like we haven't seen Mayes do it before. He landed six takedowns in a dominant TKO win over Josh Parisian (2-5 UFC), but Parisian's 46% takedown D has been a common theme in an unsuccessful tenure. Machado's (82%) has been significantly stronger.

I can't forecast a distance win for Mayes given a -0.24 SSR in an 11-fight sample. He's lost the distance striking differential in three straight coming into this one.

Machado's peripherals are a buy-low spot, and this is a solid matchup to do so.

Betting Verdict

• I bet Machado's moneyline (-120) at -125, but it's appropriate up to -140. Parkin averages 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes to Mayes' 0.79, and even he nearly lost a decision to Bigfoot as MMA scoring criteria evolves.
• Mayes has been durable with his only two losses via early finish coming as submissions. This is a rare heavyweight bout where I'm expecting length, but those shortcomings do create a bit of interest on Bigfoot's submission prop (+1000).

DFS Verdict

• This fight has identical $15 salaries as the closest bout on the card, but I'll swallow the chalk and build around the favorite.

Michal Figlak vs. Austin Hubbard

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This is the very bottom of the lightweight roster, so a win here is an absolute must for both Michal Figlak and Austin Hubbard.

Figlak is just one fight into his tenure, and Fares Ziam (5-2 UFC) was no easy out. It's just hard to forecast a ton of success given how the fight went. At distance, Ziam is solid (+0.98 SSR), but he's no world-crusher to explain a tremendously poor 29% striking accuracy and 44% striking defense. He also only converted one of five takedown attempts in Ziam's weaker realm.

I think that opens the door for Hubbard, who officially starts his second UFC stint after going 3-4 before being cut in 2021. Last year, Hubbard lost The Ultimate Fighter finale to an improved Kurt Holobaugh (1-6 UFC) via a shocking submission in a fight where he was having success, and I wasn't overly suprrised.

"Thud" Hubbard has a +0.46 SSR with solid striking accuracy (46%) and defense (56%). He's a better wrestler, posting 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with 52% accuracy. Hubbard's lack of grappling acumen has a pair of losses by sub, but Figlak's 0 pro wins via submission are a remedy for that issue here.

Figlak surrendered three takedowns to Ziam -- 60% of the Frenchman's entire career total. Hubbard returns from Elevation Fight Team, a wrestling-based camp in Denver. I'd be surprised if he wasn't able to secure a few takedowns and control the tenor of this fight.

Betting Verdict

• Figlak's performance against a below-average UFC grappler opens the door for "Thud" to wrestle -- with safety -- against him. I love Hubbard's moneyline (+144) here without a specific lean to whether or not it'd come inside the distance.

DFS Verdict

• Value plays are decently available this weekend. but Hubbard ($13) is a handy salary-saver in a balanced build. With just one UFC finish, there is questionable upside from him, though.

Victor Henry vs. Rani Yahya

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Bantamweight isn't an ideal place to be over 35 years old, but these two are at least on a level playing field.

It's nice to see 36-year-old Victor Henry back after one of the most stomach-churning low blows in UFC history. Henry's efforts in Abu Dhabi to upset Javid Basharat (4-1 UFC) were thwarted by the foul, but he's turned back two multi-time UFC winners in three bouts prior. He's established in the division.

Henry's high-volume striking attack (8.26 significant strikes landed per minute) hasn't featured any power moments yet, but a 78% takedown D was decently well-tested by both Raoni Barcelos (7-4 UFC) and Tony Gravely (4-4 UFC) to this point. I see it as the make-or-break dynamic in this fight with Rani Yahya.

At 39, Yahya is UFC's all-time submission win leader at 135 pounds with seven, posting 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes to get victims into the torture chamber. His last matchup with Montel Jackson (7-2 UFC) did him no favors given the youthful Jackson's power, but this is much more his speed. Yahya's -0.18 SSR properly shows he's lacking on the feet.

However, this betting number with Henry is pretty wild. In November 2022, Henry let up two of five takedown attempts and over six minutes in control to a 39-year-old Raphael Assuncão (12-7 UFC). He lost a decision as a -390 favorite. This is nearly an identical matchup with the aging Yahya roughly in the same takedown accuracy (32%) realm as Assuncão (39%).

Henry might do enough to squeak this out, but he has so little finishing danger that Yahya should be far closer than -470 odds imply.

Betting Verdict

• Yahya's age is a concern, but I don't know how you look at the Assuncão effort and lay Henry's moneyline in this spot. The model has Henry as just a -140 favorite to win, showing clear value on Yahya's moneyline (+340).
• I've got the fight as 78.6% likely to go the distance -- only further advising not to lay such a hefty number.
  • It's worth noting I've got Yahya's decision prop (+700) at a much shorter +255 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• Yahya ($9) will bust plenty of FanDuel lineups simply by just hanging around, but I've also got him 14.2% likely to win by submission and post a solid fantasy score himself.

Uros Medic vs. Tim Means

Welterweight (170 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

This fight's pace should be awesome for as long as it lasts.

Uros Medic lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy, and veteran Tim Means has still managed 5.10 per minute with 49% accuracy despite an up-and-down, 28-fight sample. The result of this battle seems like a foregone conclusion, though.

Medic, at 30, is in the statistical prime year for a UFC fighter, and a short-notice loss via submission to the highly regarded Myktybek Orolbai (1-0 UFC) didn't really change his outlook. While struggling with grapplers (46% takedown D), Medic's +2.46 SSR and absurd 2.82% knockdown rate have resulted in quite a few successful surgeries for "The Doctor".

On the other hand, "The Dirty Bird" Means is 40, so playing at distance with a powerful, efficient striker would be asinine. However, Means' 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes could level the playing field; he's landed a combined eight in his last four fights. Means' issue could be that low submission volume (0.2 attempts per 15) doesn't really imply he can end the fight on the mat.

Medic defended both takedown attempts from Matthew Semelsberger (5-4 UFC) before a third-round KO, so I actually feel like his analytical defense might be worse than in practice -- especially expecting the worst Means yet. There's an obvious way to play this fight, though.

Betting Verdict

• In one of the highest individual outcomes I've ever seen in the model, Medic's huge knockdown rate and recent history has him 56.4% likely to win by knockout in this bout. That would imply Medic's KO/TKO prop should be -130, but the number at FanDuel is -105.
  • Means' low submission volume could also constitute a hedge with his decision prop (+470), which I have at +345.
• I've got this fight 78.6% likely to end early. Nearly all of the decision equity lies in the direction of "The Dirty Bird".

DFS Verdict

• Medic ($19) is one of my favorite MVP candidates with such lofty odds to win via knockout. A first-or-second-round KO win (with a knockdown) is a guaranteed 100-plus FanDuel points.

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

This is the best matchup of prospects on the card as these two featherweights float just outside the rankings.

Jonathan Pearce is looking for a bounce-back effort after spoiling his chance in his last fight with Joanderson Brito (4-1 UFC). Pearce controlled over six minutes of the fight in the early going but was submitted via a guillotine choke. That was shocking to me solely because it's an obvious tool Brito would have had planned for the wrestler.

"JSP" is a physical beast at 145, amassing 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53% accuracy. His striking accuracy (56%) and defense (55%) also pass the mark, and it was an indictment of toughness that Brito's excellent power wasn't his undoing. David Onama has his work cut out for him.

Onama's 45% takedown D is the glaring weakness that could render this fight non-competitive. He's allowed five of the last seven attempts to get him down. Even so, the Ugandan's surprise KO of Gabriel Santos (0-2 UFC) as a +185 underdog came out of nowhere, defending an inefficient 47% of Santos' strikes in addition to the wrestling issues.

While Onama's 1.08% knockdown rate isn't to be ignored, Pearce didn't cede one to Brito's 0.76% rate as a decent show of toughness. Onama's one submission attempt also came against an opponent on three days' notice, so he may not have the same tools to pull off the magic Brito did.

While liking these guys both in a vacuum, this stylistic matchup seems to lean heavily in JSP's direction.

Betting Verdict

• Pearce's so-so level of competition and minimal finishing danger can only produce so high of a result in my model, but it's got him 58.3% likely to win this bout.
  • His decision prop (+240) isn't a bad look when I've got the mark at +145.
• I've got this fight 54.2% likely to go the distance, but Pearce is 40.9% likely to win the fight going the distance. An early finish would correlate extremely well with an Onama dub.

DFS Verdict

• Pearce's historically strong FanDuel scoring (5.74 points per minute excl. bonuses) comes from the absurd takedown volume. While lack of finishing danger keeps him away from MVP, he's a nice flex option at $16.

Jhonata Diniz vs. Austen Lane

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

As Alex Pereira once again cracked an egg on my face two weeks ago, here's another former GLORY kickboxer that's transitioned to MMA with success.

Jhonata Diniz operates at heavyweight, though. We saw his speed and power on display with two knockdowns in less than four minutes against Eduardo Neves on DWCS. Diniz's small sample netted a 42% striking accuracy and 36% striking defense, but that's similar to how Pereira's efficiency just doesn't tell the story of dominance.

It seems the UFC wanted to give him a chance to put on a show with fellow striker Austen Lane. Lane's more appropriate title might be "slugger" when he's either won or been knocked out in the first round of every UFC bout. Lane's last fight was a grim omen for his UFC future, defending just 22% of the significant strike attempts from Justin Tafa (4-4 UFC) in a quick loss.

This is ugly heavyweight where both guys are well-equipped with power, but Diniz's patient, strategic approach is a stark contrast to Lane's brawling style -- which makes sense as a former football player. Diniz's lengthy combat experience in kickboxing juxtaposed with Lane's time on the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line as recently as 2015 isn't a particularly fair fight.

This is one where I've got to toss the stats -- heavily juiced by Lane's DWCS win -- out the window. There's only one skilled striker here. I'll have to worry about Diniz's grappling skills in a different matchup, but Lane has shown zero himself.

Betting Verdict

• Though I wouldn't touch Diniz's -355 moneyline, I handily pick him to win here. His skill, experience, and lack of attrition could prove helpful here.
  • Shockingly, Diniz is still four years younger despite 22 pro combat appearances to Lane's 16.
• This fight is -180 to end in the first round, which is exactly what we've seen in all four previous UFC-affiliated appearances from these big fellas.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'll get my exposure to Diniz ($18). Lane hasn't lasted five minutes with any fighter who has made a UFC-affiliated appearance, and Diniz is no rookie.

Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This showdown of out-of-nowhere flyweight contenders has thoroughly earned its spot on this main card.

"Killer" Karine Silva has flown through the 125-pound entry level with three first-round finishes, but a 5-11 combined record of those opponents leaves some questions. That's especially true with a poor striking accuracy (35%) and defense (50%), but her grappling has been too much for most. She's posted a stellar 2.45 takedowns and 4.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

This is awesome matchmaking when Ariane Lipski has a 79% takedown defense, proving to completely neutralize Casey O'Neill's wrestling in her last fight en route to a shocking second-round submission. That was Lipski's second sub with UFC, but the product of Amanda Nunes' camp has always been an excellent striker.

Her +0.04 SSR alone seems mediocre, but "The Queen of Violence" has improved dramatically in her last three fights to post a +66 striking differential as competition has gotten tougher.

Lipski's previous form might have been a submission waiting to happen, but we have more questions answered about O'Neill (+2.11 SSR) inside these rankings than Silva, so I can't pass on her as an underdog with a striking advantage and the tools to extend Silva -- who struggled regionally with endurance -- like previous poor competition couldn't.

Betting Verdict

• I couldn't model this fight due to Silva's one-and-done UFC tenure, but Lipski would have the level of competition, striking, and defensive efficiency boxes checked. Silva was an underdog as recently as two weeks ago, but Lipski's moneyline (+128) is the play at current cost.
• Length would benefit Lipski, who has gone to the cards in three of her last five. If she's not been submitted early, I have a great deal of confidence she's won the fight. This fight is -215 to not go the distance.
  • The tenor of this fight could lead to interest darts at Lipski's round-two prop (+950) and round-three prop (+1100).

DFS Verdict

• Silva ($18) has locked in 100-plus FanDuel points in three straight, but moving up in competition, I love a pivot to Lipski ($14) as a value play. Her wrestling defense has won three straight fights; why not a fourth?

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

MMA judging might be responsible for what happens to Bogdan Guskov on Saturday.

Ryan Spann took a split decision loss to Anthony Smith late last year in Singapore, and it's thrust him back to an unranked opponent. While not perfect, I still believe Spann to be one of the most well-rounded, dangerous light heavyweights on the roster behind a massive 2.51% knockdown rate and an unusual 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes for the division.

I'd prefer he just jettison the reeling camp at Fortis MMA, which could help improve a 45% striking D and 47% takedown D that can be directly attributed to most losses. Guskov is a live 'dog given those numbers, but this betting line is pretty disrespectful.

Guskov blasted out Zac Pauga (1-3 UFC) in February, but his last trip inside the rankings resulted in getting dropped and submitted in under four minutes by Volkan Oezdemir (7-6 UFC). He also had a -18 striking differential during the dismantling.

That has to be far closer to the projection for him against Spann. Guskov has shown no grappling prowess at all, which is how "Superman" has secured four wins by sub at 205 pounds. Plus, Guskov's 40% striking defense stinks, too.

In a firefight, -188 odds aren't even that lofty for the more dangerous fighter with seven wins over multi-time UFC winners to Guskov's zero.

Betting Verdict

• I couldn't model this fight due to Guskov's two efforts that concluded in the first round, but I'd imagine he'd be a lofty favorite with a -0.49 SSR to Guskov's -3.38.
• This fight is -154 to end in the first round, which has happened in 80% of these two's combined fights since the COVID break. Here is not the spot for a bathroom break.
  • With Spann well-versed in both knockout power and submission danger, combining both in his round-one prop (+135) could prove to be wise.

DFS Verdict

• Expecting a win inside the first, Spann ($17) is also one of my favorite MVP candidates on the card. I feel even better about his first-round equity than Medic or Diniz while loving all three options in tournaments.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

It's not Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez's fault they're one of the weakest main events of 2024. These guys should put on a scrap; top-10 flyweights almost always deliver.

Nicolau is a -188 favorite with a bit more of a recent sample, and he was a fun one to look at analytically. Some see the Brazilian as a "point fighter" with just one UFC win by finish, but a 2.16% knockdown rate and 0.9 submission attempts per 15 otherwise state a guy looking to inflict damage. His accuracy is stellar, but a 66% striking D and 93% takedown D make him toughest to crack in all areas.

If there's an issue for Nicolau, it's volume. Throwing just 6.91 significant strike attempts per minute, he's not particularly active by this division's standard.

On the other side, Perez has been the top 10's "mystery man" but finally returned against the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev in March. He, frankly, exceeded all expectations to stuff 17 of 20 takedown attempts and avoid a third straight loss via submission.

I've always felt Perez was underrated due to a couple of poor moments, showcasing similar excellent efficiency to Nicolau. His 59% striking D and 82% takedown D are right there, and his knockdown rate (1.00%) is also solid.

The difference between these samples, though, is recency. Nicolau's has come against five ranked fighters since the COVID break. Perez has faced just three, and Mokaev's true skill is a bit unknown when Perez himself likely represents his best win.

I agree that Nicolau should be favored, but there's a bit of ambiguity here in both's first five-round bout. The total is my favorite wager.

Betting Verdict

• My favorite bet is for this fight is under 4.5 rounds (-140). That's a diversion from men's flyweight trends, but this one is also a rare five-rounder in the division. I've got it stopping early 65.6% of the time based on the historical fight-ending-sequence rate for both men.
• I've got Nicolau 58.0% likely to win, which alone doesn't show value against his moneyline.
  • I'm showing value on both Nicolau's inside-the-distance prop (+155). I support that when having it at +145 myself.

DFS Verdict

• Expecting an early finish, the floor for Nicolau ($21) and Perez ($16) is painfully low for the salary. I just can't turn away from Nicolau's knockdown rate and better recent sample when projecting the gladiator that emerges.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.