UFC Vegas 88: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 88: Tuivasa vs. Tybura, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Charalampos Grigoriou vs. Chad Anheliger

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Charalampos Grigoriou is a prime example of the challenge of handicapping modern UFC fights.

Grigoriou needed just 60 seconds to flatten 26-year-old Cam Smotherman on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) last August, providing a minimal lens into his actual MMA talent at a UFC level. As you'd expect in a dominant finish, Grigoriou's peripherals -- including a +9.00 SSR -- are all stellar in such a small, successful sample. I'm still not sold when his three opponents entering that appearance had just a 13-17 combined pro record.

The question becomes whether or not Chad Anheliger, fading out of UFC himself, can even give us those answers. The Canadian has always been undersized for the division at 5'6" with a 64" reach, and he'll cede significant size to Grigoriou. The fighting results haven't been much better.

On the feet, "The Monster" has a -0.48 SSR with middling striking accuracy (42%) and defense (51%). However, that's his stronger area due to a 47% takedown D and four pro losses via submission. Most concerning, Anheliger is now 37 years old in a division built on speed and athleticism.

"The Ferocious" has drawn about as easy of a debut matchup that can exist at men's bantamweight. While I believe his athleticism, length, and power wins out, I have no desire to back such an unproven commodity at a -170 moneyline.

Betting Verdict

• I'll save my betting dollars for the remaining 12 fights. Matchups at 135 don't come easier than Anheliger, but at the same time, it's still well within the realm of possibility that Grigoriou is a sub-UFC-caliber fighter that had the minute of his life on DWCS.

DFS Verdict

• I'm more open to Grigoriou ($16) here when the fight is -160 to end inside the distance, but there's still a considerable amount of risk. I'd look toward Anheliger ($14) on paper more if the peripheral stats weren't so poor on top of age and size concerns.

Cory McKenna vs. Jaqueline Amorim

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

The line movement here totally caught me off guard. I'd have expected "Poppins" to close as an underdog for a fifth time in six fights.

At 5'3" with a 58" reach (shortest on the UFC roster), Cory McKenna isn't physically imposing, but her skill level is. McKenna has posted a 3-1 UFC record on the strength of her wrestling, posting 2.04 takedowns per 15 with excellent 53% accuracy. She's also survived in the guard of Vanessa Demopoulos (4-2 UFC) with a submission win of her own, so those skills seem up to par.

McKenna faces Jaqueline Amorim this weekend. Amorim was a pretty intriguing jiu-jitsu prospect entering her debut, but those high hopes fell flat as a -250 favorite by losing to Sam Hughes (3-5 UFC) after fatiguing early. Her latest stomping of Montserrat Ruiz (1-2 UFC) was a better result, but it still leaves plenty of questions, including having never stuffed a takedown with the promotion.

An underrated part of McKenna's game that allowed her to defeat both Demopoulos and Kay Hansen (1-3 UFC) is a 71% takedown D. Given Amorim's struggles there with a 23% accuracy on her attempts, the Welsh strawweight should have a significantly easier time dictating wrestling exchanges than the Brazilian.

If this devolves into a striking match, Amorim's distance strike differential with UFC (-7) doesn't provide a ton of hope when she's faced two grapplers. McKenna's -5 distance striking differential against talented kickboxer Cheyanne Vlismas (3-2 UFC) provides much more.

McKenna was a slight -111 'dog to Amorim's -115 on Sunday, but she's shifted to a -170 favorite by Friday. I am following the sharp money after having evaluated all phases of this matchup.

Betting Verdict

• I did place a bet on McKenna's moneyline at -125, but I'd only endorse this up to -135. Without longevity concerns, McKenna is a better wrestler and could even surprise in the striking department here. I comfortably pick her to win.
• Five of these ladies' combined seven UFC fights have gone the distance, which explains -168 odds to go the distance.
  • Amorim's submission danger is likely the most lethal weapon in the fight, so a full 15 minutes bodes extremely well for Poppins.

DFS Verdict

• You wouldn't be wrong to argue for a fade of this fight entirely given its projected length and grappling-heavy nature, but McKenna ($15) or Amorim ($15) could provide a valuable win bonus.
  • I'm projecting quite a bit of length out of a lot of this weekend's fights, so overall scoring on this slate might not be very high.

Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

The layers of value behind this fight come up roses for Thiago Moises' betting line.

Moises was infamously dismantled by Benoit Saint Denis -- in Paris -- his last time out, but Saint Denis' setback last Saturday doesn't change that result being forgivable. The American Top Team product's overall 6-5 record is quite impressive when the five losses have come to opponents a combined 45-13-1 with the promotion. Moises' two fights before Saint Denis were both early, dominant submissions.

I've always struggled with Moises' lack of activity, but his 54% striking D is sound considering the level of competition. And, while his identical 54% takedown D is a risk, his submission game is why he does accept ground fighting at times.

On the flip side, Mitch Ramirez couldn't even get by Carlos Prates on DWCS in August -- though some would say that's due to the fight happening at 170 pounds. Prates' UFC debut saw him post a -31 striking differential, so I'm of the belief that Ramirez's loss has actually aged worse despite Prates' come-from-behind knockout out of nowhere in that one.

Ramirez posted a -1.12 SSR behind an awful 36% striking defense on the show, but he did land a takedown and 78 seconds of control. To me, that's his lone path to win this fight with significantly less experience.

However, even in top position from his wrestling, I'd argue the Brazilian is more dangerous for an armbar or triangle off his back. I'm expecting the UFC veteran to rebound in this short-notice affair. Moises' original bout with Brad Riddell (4-3 UFC) was a much more appropriate one for his skill level.

Betting Verdict

• Every UFC foe that Moises has lost to has a career winning percentage of 70% or higher. I'm not even close to that projection for Ramirez after a sloppy DWCS appearance that resulted in a knockout loss.
  • Moises' moneyline (-400) might actually still be extreme value because he was so publicly destroyed by BSD in a huge spot.

DFS Verdict

• Moises ($22) is in the MVP mix when Ramirez's UFC-affiliated sample is filled with holes and mistakes. This feels like a spot where Moises reminds us, despite iffy peripherals, that there is a huge difference between a former ranked 155er and the entry level of UFC.

Josh Culibao vs. Danny Silva

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

I've been looking forward to Danny Silva's debut since his appearance on DWCS.

Silva was a striking machine, landing 204 significant strikes and a knockdown with tremendous efficiency. He landed 64% of his attempts and defended 60% of his opponent's. Those numbers -- amounting to 21.25 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes -- were born for my "Fight of the Night" honors.

I certainly think he'll have a game dancing partner in Australia's Josh Culibao. Tough as a two-dollar steak, Culibao hasn't been finished despite facing five straight multi-time UFC winners at featherweight. His analytical profile suits a striking match well, having never secured a UFC takedown on 13 attempts.

The problem for Culibao is that he's easily outgunned in them. He attempts 6.38 significant strikes per minute and lands just 42% of the efforts, which is already in obvious contrast to Silva's pace and accuracy despite the lower level of competition for the underdog.

Silva's only pro loss came via decision, and this fight is -156 to go all 15 minutes. If we're getting a full fight, I can already tell you who is winning on the scorecards via pace and activity. Though a bit deterred by his sample size, the debuting "El Puma" is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.

Betting Verdict

• Silva's moneyline (+142) is a tremendous spot for me. I would favor him to win if we knew we got a decision in this one, and oddsmakers are leaning that direction. Culibao has never topped 60 significant strikes in a fight, and Silva landed 67 in the third round of his DWCS appearance alone.

DFS Verdict

• In this realm, Silva ($13) should be decently popular just because Culibao has only topped 75 FanDuel points once in six fights. I'll join in playing the chalk when expecting him to win.

Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I couldn't run from my gut feeling from this fight.

Jafel Filho absolutely possesses some weapons that have been Ode Osbourne's undoing historically. Notably, Filho has put out a voluminous 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes in three UFC-affiliated appearances -- the most well-known of those coming against undefeated top-10 flyweight Muhammed Mokaev. Osbourne has been submitted twice in nine UFC-affiliated appearances.

However, once you get past that, Osbourne checks a ton of boxes here as an underdog. Filho was just dropped by Daniel Barez (0-1 UFC) in his last fight and holds a poor 45% striking D. And "The Jamaican Sensation" -- behind a five-inch edge in reach -- will almost certainly be the stronger striker with two UFC KOs of his own.

Plus, Osbourne's 68% takedown D is not a bad mark and indicates decent first-level wrestling defense. Stud prospect Asu Almabayev (2-0 UFC) was the only one to take him down multiple times in a fight, and Filho (27% takedown accuracy) hasn't proven to have that same ability.

Then, when you turn to look at level of competition, Filho's two UFC-affiliated wins are over opponents 0-1 against all others. Osbourne has turned back three UFC winners, including Charles Johnson (3-4 UFC) and CJ Vergara (3-3 UFC).

While fearing the submission danger as much as the next person, this line is too wide due to recency bias in the form of Osbourne having just been submitted by Almabayev. Filho isn't that guy, pal.

Betting Verdict

• I'm taking the 'dog look with Osbourne's moneyline (+134) in this spot. It's possible he could win by knockout or decision, though, so I'm avoiding props.
• Seven of Osbourne's nine fights have ended inside the distance, and both of Filho's wins have come via an early finish. This fight is -235 to end within 15 minutes for good reason, but I don't feel like betting that number.
  • Leaning toward Osbourne, the decision equity is squarely with him as the striker.

DFS Verdict

• I prefer other favorites (by a lot) to Filho, and Osbourne ($13) profiles as a high-upside value play if his win condition stays true to this fight's total. I project he'll also not be popular due to the expectation of getting submitted.

Josiane Nunes vs. Chelsea Chandler

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Both of these women have combined for one actual appearance at 135 -- not 145. It'll be curious to see if a weight cut impacts this fight.

Josiane Nunes -- no relation to the former champ -- is certainly a unique archetype. At 5'2", a majority of this division towers over her, but she's still managed to post a 3-0 record that's well-supported by a +1.37 SSR. The problem is that her competition has just a 2-9 combined record within UFC, explaining why oddsmakers aren't giving her the benefit of the doubt here.

Two key attributes that could prove vital for "Josi" in this spot are her 70% takedown defense and tremendous pace (16.41 significant strikes per minute). That's because Chelsea Chandler figures to have the size and physicality edge here.

The Stockton native and training partner of Nick and Nate Diaz has already experienced the highs and lows of the promotion. Her debut was a dominant KO of Julija Stoliarenko (2-6 UFC), but she was outmatched by top featherweight Norma Dumont (6-2 UFC) in her last bout -- much to the delight of those who make MMA memes.

Chandler has never been finished in her pro career, which speaks volumes running through two multi-time UFC winners already. While Nunes is a third in that category, she has significantly more to prove.

Nunes lost the distance striking differential facing Zarah Fairn (0-4 UFC) in her last fight, and Chandler enters by default as the better projected grappler. I'll even get to the window to back the larger athlete here.

Betting Verdict

• Chandler's moneyline (+118) could have value just by way of competition level and size. The ability level here is not ideal, and those two strong indicators of success loom large.
  • I believe Chandler would be favored had her last bout (and the memes) not ensued, but it was actually a decent display of durability despite the "L".
  • Chandler's submission prop (+700) piques my interest when I think its value comes via Nunes having no pro wins (or losses) by submission. She struggled with new UFC signee Dione Barbosa on the ground when the two met regionally in 2019.
• Nunes also has a sizable 1.20% knockdown rate herself, so a bet for the fight not to go the distance (-128) could pay dividends if you're not interested in Chandler.

DFS Verdict

• I actually think this could end up being one of the better DFS environments on the card between Nunes' historical pace and the historical finishing rates of both ladies. Chandler ($14) is one of my favorite value plugs.

Mike Davis vs. Natan Levy

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

UFC's mystery man finally returns this week, and I'm excited to see him once more.

Mike Davis debuted with two now-ranked fighters, Sodiq Yusuff and Gilbert Burns, at 145 pounds and was on the fringe of getting cut. He's responded with a well-rounded skillset that's 3-0 since moving to lightweight, but just two have come since the start of 2020. Due to injuries and other factors, "Beast Boy" has lost most of his prime on the sidelines when I thought he also had ranked potential.

Every metric on him is clean. His striking accuracy (52%) and defense (56%) are on point, and his wrestling is even better. Davis has added 3.04 takedowns per 15 with 53% accuracy. All of this comes with caveat of pretty stellar competition, facing four multi-time winners in five UFC fights.

Nonetheless, Natan Levy is an intriguing next test. Levy has passed the entry level of 155 pounds, posting a +0.49 SSR in his first two wins. However, those fighters are 1-4 against all others, so the Israeli fighter's roster longevity isn't quite certain yet. Levy's 15 takedowns in his past two fights have carried him past a pair of cans.

Davis has, arguably, had a better UFC career than Rafa Garcia (4-3 UFC), who swallowed Levy with seven takedowns in Levy's UFC debut. The 32-year-old has likely improved since that one, but his 41% takedown D is an obvious concern entering this fight with the well-rounded American.

This number is a bit wide, but I have to back Davis' experience to get the job done.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Davis at 57.0% likely to win this fight, and there's only so much equity it can give one fighter in a bout 75.4% projected to go the distance. Beast Boy's inactivity is also a bit of a concern.
  • To me, a Levy win here would come from a skill or improvement that we have not yet seen to this point. I may not end up with betting action here.

DFS Verdict

• My MVP hierarchy's third spot went to Davis ($21) this week on the basis of his floor. While someone from the next fight might have more finishing upside, Davis' security and historical scoring pace (4.78 FanDuel points per minute) are quality arrows in his direction.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

This phase of Bryan Barberena's career continues to make no sense.

The other "Bam Bam" on this card, Barberena started his UFC career at 155 pounds, had an 8-7 run at 170 pounds, and now -- at just 32 -- has transitioned to middleweight with the opposite of success. He ceded 13 takedowns and 2 knockdowns to Makhmud Muradov (4-2 UFC), a fighter that's already tasted defeat at the hands of Gerald Meerschaert.

Barberena's game is high-volume striking, landing 48% of 11.52 significant strike attempts per minute. Robbie Lawler couldn't keep pace in his last win at welterweight. However, his 44% striking D has resulted in allowing 5 knockdowns in his last 10 fights, and the vet's 49% takedown D is a noted path of least resistance.

Lapses in Meerschaert's ability to absorb punches create some intrigue that Barberena stuffs enough takedowns to put him out, but GM3 is a reliable grappler that figures to give the underdog problems. He's posted 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes with 37% accuracy; frankly, both of those numbers were higher than I expected. The Wisconsin native actually has a more responsible striking D (53%) if this devolves into a firefight in his organic weight class, too.

Barberena has zero knockdowns in his last nine fights -- a trend that likely won't reverse moving up in weight. With his lack of one-shot power to follow in the footsteps of others like Joe Pyfer and Khamzat Chimaev, I have a ton of faith in Meerschaert to dominate this bout.

Betting Verdict

• I think my model's assessment is wrong here, which is natural without a foolproof way to adjust for a huge weight class shift. Plus, Meerschaert is 2-3 in his last five against superior competition. It's got him winning just 54.4% of the time; I feel more strongly than that.
• I've got this fight at 53.2% likely to go the full distance, but Barberena has been finished in four of his last six losses. I've got Meerschaert's submission prop at +275, showing minimal value against +120 on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• GM3 ($19) is just outside my MVP hierarchy this week, yet I think he's a tremendous flex play with finishing upside no matter what. Still, you can't take anything to the bank with a 36-year-old that is 4-7 in his last 11 bouts.

Macy Chiasson vs. Pannie Kianzad

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

This fight is my strongest prediction on the card, but sorry in advance about it.

Macy Chiasson and Pannie Kianzad live in the dirty, grimy margins of women's 135 as is. Facing each other? There's a reason this one is -340 to go the full distance.

Chiasson was once a potential championship dark horse in this division, and she's got the best win of these two with a six-takedown win over Norma Dumont at 145 pounds. The Fortis MMA product's signature attribute is wrestling, posting 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest 34% accuracy. However, she's posted zero submission attempts in an eight-fight UFC career.

On the feet, I'd describe Macy as sloppy behind a low striking accuracy (41%) and defense (46%), which creates an opening for Kianzad.

The Swedish striking ace has a +1.12 SSR in UFC but still searches for her first finish -- or knockdown -- with the organization. "#PannieByPoints" is a meme in betting circles for a reason. There's a double-edged sword to her last fight with Ketlen Vieira. While she was controlled for over 10 minutes by the grappling ace, she also did survive three submission attempts entering this easier matchup.

A prior version of Pannie -- having just transitioned from kickboxing -- was submitted by Chiasson in 2018 on The Ultimate Fighter. Personally, that's why this line sits where it is. However, two mutual opponents since provide a lens into her improvement. 135-pound champ Rocky Pennington submitted Chiasson in 2021; Kianzad went the full distance with her behind a +1 striking differential that same year. Kianzad also defeated Lina Lansberg (4-7 UFC), and Macy wasn't as fortunate.

In an ugly fight projected to go the distance, I'm leaning toward the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Chiasson as 56.2% likely to win this fight, but these odds imply a 70.1% chance. Working in razor-close margins, I do think the betting value is on Kianzad's moneyline (+186) as it has widened.
• Oddsmakers have this fight -340 to go the distance. My model, pegging an 87.1% chance, couldn't agree more.

DFS Verdict

• The distance element of this fight really hurts Chiasson ($20) at her salary. After all, she hasn't topped 90 FanDuel points since 2019 against Sarah Moras (2-6 UFC).

Isaac Dulgarian vs. Christian Rodriguez

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

These prospects are probably on a shortlist of the top 15 across the entire promotion, which is how they snagged a main card spot despite a combined 4-1 record to this stage.

After another weight miss at 135, Christian Rodriguez is being forced back to where he made his debut at featherweight. "CeeRod" went 3-0 in dominant fashion in the smaller weight class, but that was missing weight twice. It's a shame that was so difficult when he dominated to the tune of a +1.40 SSR and 1.4 submission attempts per 15, but the extra weight can help make that happen.

On short notice, Rodriguez ceded 6 of 10 takedown attempts to Jonathan Pearce (5-2 UFC) in his debut at 145 pounds to lose a decision that was closer than anticipated. That's why he's no afterthought at this new weight class. Isaac Dulgarian will welcome him back.

"The Midwest Choppa" trains at Factory X Muay Thai, one of the best gyms in the sport, and has six first-round wins in six pro fights. The former three-time state wrestling champ demolished Francis Marshall (1-2 UFC) for a +33 striking differential in the first round as a slight 'dog back in August.

There's a two-pronged argument to Dulgarian in this particular matchup. In the positive direction, Dulgarian has the wrestling (3.13 takedowns per 15) to dominate an undersized CeeRod exactly like Pearce did. In the negative direction, he's never been outside the first round, inviting the myriad of concerns that come with that fact.

Oddsmakers influenced my read on this fight that I couldn't model. To put such a proven and well-tested prospect like Rodriguez -- surely getting public support -- as the underdog is a pretty bold stance to take with Dulgarian.

Betting Verdict

• In a fight where physicality is so crucial to both of these fighters, Dulgarian's known presence at 145 is pretty valuable off a perfect debut. I'd pick him to win while likely not getting to the window.
• Dulgarian's round-one finish streak meets a fighter that's been the distance in all three fights. Still, Isaac's lack of experience in deep water has me in full agreement with -144 odds to not go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• This fight proves to be paramount in this domain, and I'll roll with Dulgarian ($19) as the favorite. I'm anticipating significant popularity in betting and DFS for the underdog holding a 3-1 UFC record.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

This is the first fight since Drew Dober-Ricky Glenn in October where I've genuinely questioned the matchmaking for safety purposes. That one ended violently in 156 seconds.

Kennedy Nzechukwu is a 31-year old mountain of a man, standing 6'5" with the longest reach at light heavyweight (83"). From a skill perspective, Nzechukwu just had a fight to enter the rankings against Dustin Jacoby, which didn't happen after losing in round one. Nonetheless, the native of Nigeria has posted a +0.56 SSR and even showed a bit of submission upside in a 2023 win over Devin Clark.

He's one of the last unranked fighters I'd choose as a potential opponent for Ovince Saint Preux at this stage. The 40-year-old once famously challenged Jon Jones for this division's title, but he's had issues even making this weight class as he's aged; two of his last six have been at heavyweight. Saint Preux is 3-7 in his last 10 bouts, and his last win came against a now-retired Shogun Rua.

OSP's career-long peripherals might be the scariest part. He's put out just 5.77 significant strike attempts per minute with a 46% striking D, and we're presumably getting the worst version of him on Saturday.

Nzechukwu's own lapses in durability and fight IQ bring the slightest bit of drama to this matchup but having just seen 38-year-old Philipe Lins clean out Saint Preux in 49 seconds for his only career knockout, I'm expecting the worst.

Betting Verdict

• Nzechukwu's -700 moneyline doesn't add much value to parlays for the trouble, but my model has him 64.9% implied likely to win here. That's about as high as the model goes due to historical injury and "puncher's chance" upset rates.
• My model is way off the market when expecting this fight to go the distance 46.7% of the time. OSP's recent sample due to inactivity going so far back is likely why.
  • Nonetheless, I could see an extraordinarily cautious OSP prioritize surviving to the final bell when Nzechukwu's decision prop (+500) is pretty lengthy.

DFS Verdict

• Nzechukwu ($23) is -- without a doubt -- Saturday's top MVP candidate. This looks like a bulldozing on paper. I'll still mix in others knowing my model does value OSP's ability to mitigate damage, which could lead to a sloppy effort that disappoints in DFS.

Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

This battle of prospects was a fun one to model.

Admittedly, I've faded Bryan Battle in four of his six UFC appearances, but the former The Ultimate Fighter champ just keeps winning. Battle's elite size (6'1") and reach (77") for 170 pounds are problems that few have solved despite a 42% striking D and 46% takedown D that's otherwise fairly concerning. His 0.93% knockdown rate and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 have allowed him to finish four of his five wins early.

On the other hand, Ange Loosa is a guy that I've been optimistic about due to dire circumstances in his first two UFC-affiliated appearances. He was tasked with Jack Della Maddalena on DWCS and subsequently fought Mounir Lazzez (2-2 UFC) on less than a week's notice. Loosa benefitted from a nice matchup against Rhys McKee (0-3 UFC) near his home country of Switzerland last fall, landing 98 significant strikes and 6 takedowns.

I waffled on this fight, but similar to last week's co-main, the widened line made the decision for me. Battle's defensive concerns are still present, and Loosa's tremendous durability against three multi-time UFC winners can't be overlooked. Plus, as this fight lengthens, Loosa's tremendous cardio could pay huge dividends. If he's pushing the pace and surviving, his win probability increases by the second.

Battle's athletic gifts are why he's favored in this spot, but eventually, his poor peripherals will catch up to him. I don't want to miss the boat that it's this extremely public spot.

Betting Verdict

• I do not show value on either moneyline due to the vig, but Loosa's decision prop (+270) is +165 in the model. His lack of finishing danger and personal durability have the fight 63.3% likely to go the distance, per the algorithm.
  • This fight is -168 to go the distance on FanDuel. If that cashes, I would feel phenomenal about Loosa having won the minutes with activity.

DFS Verdict

• I'll be forced to turn to Loosa ($12) more often than desired because of this card's poor value options, but oddsmakers expecting length to this fight really help his floor in DFS. I would have had a tougher decision here if Battle's moneyline (and therefore salary) hadn't climbed from -150 to -178 this week.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

I think the UFC is trying to give Tai Tuivasa a break in this matchup, but the close odds indicate it should be another challenging night at the office for "Bam Bam".

Between his insane knockout power (2.08% knockdown rate) and lovable "shooey" celebration, Tuivasa is a fan favorite. However, his UFC career has been the definition of streaky. He started with three straight wins followed by three straight losses as foes began to exploit a 54% takedown D. Through positive matchups, Tuivasa then ripped off five straight KOs against opponents averaging fewer than 0.50 takedowns per 15.

However, this return to the rankings and recent 0-3 skid has seen Tai struggle in his department with a -167 striking differential in three fights. I'm a bit surprised to see him favored over Marcin Tybura.

"Tybur" was the latest first-round victim of interim champion Tom Aspinall, which halted his late-career resurgence. He still enters this one having won seven of nine fights. The Polish heavyweight has poor power by the divisional standard (0.13% knockdown rate) but otherwise minds his weapons well behind a +0.20 SSR and 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes.

For a -114 moneyline, Tuivasa seemingly has one path to win -- knocking Tybura's lights out. On a per-minute basis, Tybura should be the more efficient striker with wrestling upside that bested "Bam Bam" long, long ago.

It's been eight fights since Tuivasa fought a guy that even averaged one takedown per 15 minutes. I'm not sure he's made any significant improvement in that area as much as he's been protected due to star power.

Betting Verdict

• I wasn't surprised that my model found betting value on Tybura, who is projected the winner 52.2% of the time. It believes just 14.9% of the time that comes via an early finish, though.
• I will admit that my model's shortcoming can be totals in five-rounders versus three, but I like over 1.5 rounds (-124) on the basis of it believing in length due to Tybura's wrestling and lack of power.
  • For what it's worth, it's projecting this fight to go the full distance 52.3% of the time. Whether or not my model is correct on full distance or not, this fight is +235 to start the fourth round.

DFS Verdict

• Tuivasa ($20) does have the greater upside for early points, but Tybura ($18) should be all but ignored in DFS circles with a massive leverage opportunity if my model is correct.
  • I wouldn't go to MVP with either in a close fight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.