UFC Vegas 87: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 87: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Loik Radzhabov

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Last week's UFC Mexico card ended with a Sayif Saud disasterclass, and this one might start in the same spot.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady emerged victorious from Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) as a +340 underdog. It was a no-win situation for me as a religious denier of both Saud's gym in Dallas at Fortis MMA and Cage Warriors, the promotion in which his opponent (George Hardwick) came from before the upset. "The Prince of Palestine", to his credit, posted a +1.00 striking success rate (SSR) on the show with a striking defense (61%) that was solid despite poor striking accuracy (28%).

Notable for this matchup, Hardwick never attempted a takedown but defended five of Al-Selwady's six. That wrestling component should be a huge factor against Loik Radzhabov.

Through two UFC appearances, Radzhabov has landed 7.30 takedowns per 15 minutes with 52% accuracy. He was the latest victim of the buzzsaw that is Mateusz Rebecki (4-0 UFC), but "Jaguar Paw" has a history of getting just about all others down early and often.

Leg kicks were the source of Rebecki's two knockdowns of Radzhabov, so it's interesting that Al-Selwady landed 15 on Hardwick. However, that might also be a direct adjustment for the underdog from this specific training camp.

Overall, Saud's presence in Al-Selwady's corner was the tiebreaker for me in a go-either-way bout. The noted striking decline of both Geoff Neal and Brandon Moreno under his tutelage makes me believe Radzhabov should be decently comfortable to get to his wrestling at some point, and his superior UFC experience could prove paramount.

Betting Verdict

• I did fire at Radzhabov's moneyline (+146) in this spot. I believe he should be favored with quality UFC data, and his win over Esteban Ribovics (1-1 UFC) aged pretty well with Ribovics' last effort.
• Radzhabov's first pro loss inside the distance came to Rebecki, and Al-Selwady's 66.7% pro finishing rate is actually pretty underwhelming given the competition. I prefer over 2.5 rounds (-172) from a total perspective.

DFS Verdict

• Value plays will prove to be few and far between on this card loaded with squash matches. Saving salary with Radzhabov ($14) was a pretty easy choice given some of the matchups to come.

Vinicius Oliveira vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Amidst turmoil up and down this card with scheduling, Bernardo Sopaj is making his debut up in weight on five days' notice. What could go wrong?

The 23-year-old "Lion King" is Allstars Fight Night MMA's flyweight champion in Sweden, and he was likely on track for a look on DWCS or the UFC down the road. Due to Yanis Ghemmouri pulling out of this bout with Vinicius Oliveira, that process has been expedited. Sopaj's 90.9% finishing rate at 125 pounds significantly bucks UFC trends, so I'll have to bookmark him for his debut in the right weight class.

Oddsmakers and I just aren't overly optimistic for this clash with Oliveira at 135. "Lok Dog" demolished accomplished Mexican regional vet Victor Madrigal during his DWCS appearance with some gaudy numbers. He landed 9.56 significant strikes per minute on modest accuracy (49%) with a 61% striking and 100% takedown defense. It was a flawless performance.

I, above all, should know Oliveira isn't perfect when I wagered against him with Madrigal. That was on the basis of three regional knockout losses and an unimpressive level of competition. However, with efficient concrete data, the athleticism he brings is even more appealing.

Sopaj might end up the better pound-for-pound UFC fighter in his weight class, but this is a brutal assignment on short notice. I would need tangible proof Oliveira can't hack it to pick against him in this space.

Betting Verdict

• Two debutants with weight shifts isn't a great starting place for a value bet as is. Adding in my less-than-stellar prior evaluation of Oliveira compared to his -124 moneyline, and I'm totally good sitting this fight out from a betting perspective.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'm more open to Oliveira ($15) in a spot that he's projected to cruise. I prefer three MVP candidates to come, but getting the flyweight out of there in less than a round is well within his range of outcomes.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Despite what the betting odds say, I see this as one of the more tilted fights on the card.

Claudio Ribeiro has lost the benefit of the doubt from me. Ribeiro fits the archetype of UFC warrior that I respect but don't want to put my money behind. He's got a massive knockdown rate (2.17%) when constantly hunting for the kill, but his 31% striking defense has resulted in two results the other way. Plus, I'm not sure how much grappling upside he brings when his only career takedown came against Joseph Holmes (1-3 UFC).

He'll need grappling upside taking on the talented English striker Christian Leroy Duncan in this spot. As someone who loves analytics, "CLD" might be a bit undervalued in this space when 15 of 26ish UFC minutes came against Armen Petrosyan (3-2 UFC) and his +2.79 SSR. Duncan has still landed 5.06 significant strikes per minute with 59% accuracy and a defense (47%) significantly higher than Ribeiro's.

CLD also isn't a garden-variety striker with lethal kicks and creative punches. Ribeiro is a clubbing right hand and a prayer.

I'd be foolish to discount a Ribeiro knockout in this spot, but as has been the case in each of his previous three appearances, I see him as a total knockout-or-bust proposition. He's probably the hardest hitter that CLD has ever faced, but the Englishman has also never been finished in any manner across his 10 pro fights.

With Duncan holding a two-inch reach and cardio advantages, this fight presents a pretty clear betting strategy.

Betting Verdict

• I like Duncan's moneyline (-320) and for him to win in this spot, but his knockout prop (+100) is also available when he's shown no desire to grapple in UFC to this stage.
  • Any substantial position on him can be hedged pretty easily with Ribeiro's first-round KO prop (+1000). All 11 of his wins are by KO, and 9 of those came in the first.
• It seems nearly impossible Ribeiro's style could lead to a decision, which is why this fight has -380 odds to not go the full distance.
  • Duncan's only win via decision came in 2021, and it was a repeat opponent that rendered familiarity on both sides.

DFS Verdict

• Duncan ($17) is the first of three clear-cut MVP candidates on the card for me. His per-minute pace and cardio are strengths when the knockout upside is obvious.

Javid Basharat vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

This is the first fight on the card I could model, and it's also the first of two "What on Earth?" matchups.

Javid Basharat was on his way to a fifth UFC win before Victor Henry (2-1 UFC) was rendered unable to compete due to an accidental low blow. That brief sample agains the multi-time winner didn't buck a trend that also extends to his brother, Farid, in this same division. The Basharat Bros have been nearly flawless thus far.

"The Snow Leopard" has posted a +3.15 SSR behind elite striking accuracy (61%) and defense (64%). He'll be a champion if that holds his entire UFC tenure, but he's also added 2.09 takedowns per 15 with solid 50% accuracy and defended 85% of takedowns so far. It's worth noting that his pro finishing rate (78.6%) is significantly higher than Farid's (58.3%) so not to get them confused.

Needless to say, Aiemann Zahabi has his work cut out for him to be the first to defeat a Basharat. Zahabi is on a three-fight winning streak himself, and his 72% striking defense and 75% takedown D are the right sorts of tools to neutralize efficient offense coming back his way. Zahabi's 1.60% knockdown rate -- which has resulted in two first-round KOs on the streak -- is also pretty massive.

However, he's a distant underdog because of how the offense looks when it's not a power punch. He's still held a -0.36 SSR with basically no grappling threat behind a 16% takedown accuracy. Zahabi was dominated by Vince Morales (3-6 UFC) in 2019 before dropping back to entry-level competition.

The Canadian underdog has the resources and experience to survive in this fight, but his high-level offense to win it -- short of a puncher's chance come true -- seems lacking.

Betting Verdict

• Basharat's -820 moneyline is prohibitive for good reason, leaving us for answers in the prop market. Zahabi's 72% striking D is the very best on the 135-pound roster at present (min. five fights), and he's never been submitted in 12 pro fights. I prefer a decision prop (-135) angle for the elder Basharat while finding no value.
  • My model has Basharat's decision prop at -120 with the fight 73.4% likely to go the full distance.

DFS Verdict

• I expect there will be some popularity at MVP for Basharat ($21), but his defensive matchup is actually the toughest for a -250 (or shorter) favorite on the card. I would resign him to flex consideration.

Ludovit Klein vs. AJ Cunningham

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

For a last-minute bout, I actually think UFC nailed the matchmaking here.

Ludovit Klein afforded them some flexibility to find a featherweight that could modestly compete. The former UFC 145er stands at just 5'7", so AJ Cunningham will actually be the larger athlete. That's rarely the case moving up in weight on days' notice.

"Mr. Highlight" is a -900 favorite in this spot, yet to say his 4-2-1 UFC career was all smooth sailing would be a fib. Klein went 1-2 at featherweight before moving up to 155, collecting three wins in his new weight class. Ignacio Bahamondes (3-2 UFC) was the latest and only one that still remains on UFC's roster, and Klein smothered him by landing three of five takedowns. His profile is definitely fine in a vacuum, sporting a -0.04 SSR with some wrestling offense and an 83% takedown D.

I just don't think he presents Cunningham a ton of danger going to a decision in five of his last six. At the very least, Bryce Mitchell's "cousin" (a.k.a. close friend) showed off his durability when absorbing 11.32 significant strikes per minute against Steven Nguyen (0-0 UFC) on DWCS. You can't really chalk it up to bad defense when his striking D (54%) is higher than Klein's (53%) following the appearance.

Nguyen's footwork and size was a non-starter, but we've seen Klein lose (or nearly lose) this exact fight previously. The physicality of Jai Herbert (2-4-1 UFC) and Nate Landwehr (4-3 UFC) wilted Klein over 15 minutes, and Nate even pulled out a late submission. Klein's mediocre knockdown rate (0.65%) could allow Cunningham time to get to his grappling-heavy, cardio-testing game that's similar to Mitchell's.

I'd avoid the favorite from a betting perspective here.

Betting Verdict

• While not particularly rushing to Cunningham's moneyline (+610) in dire circumstances, my favorite bet is for this fight to go the distance (+290). Klein's physical tools and style aren't close to that of Nguyen, who absolutely mopped the floor with AJ. I think that's influencing this betting line.

DFS Verdict

• Projected value was pretty thin on Monday, but this last-minute fight gives me Cunningham ($9) as a roster plug. At the very least, he can make himself the more desirable side in DFS by lengthening the fight to deny Klein points.

Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Eryk Anders' 1-3 skid is really bad news for Jamie Pickett in this spot. I see them at totally different levels of MMA.

Look no further than their most recent results. "Ya Boi" Anders lost a tight decision to Marc-Andre Barriault (5-6 UFC), who was just afforded a chance at the rankings in January. Pickett was dominated by Josh Fremd (2-2 UFC) to the tune of a -17 striking differential, marking his fourth consecutive loss.

The underdog "Night Wolf" really left me with minimal hope in a second-round loss to Denis Tiuliulin (1-4 UFC), marking the only triumph of the now-cut Russian's career. Pickett's hesitance is evident on a spreadsheet, attempting just 5.92 significant strikes per minute despite decent accuracy (48%), and this is in a UFC sample exceeding 100 minutes. He is who he is. His two UFC wins went 3-5 with the promotion against all others.

Anders isn't perfect, but his 79% takedown D squashes a lot of drama in this fight. On the feet, there's no doubt his power (1.01% knockdown rate) and volume (7.57 significant strikes attempted per minute) both easily trump Pickett's. Plus, he's posted 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes when Pickett holds just a 69% takedown D and has surrendered six submission attempts in his last four fights.

Mercifully, Pickett's 2-6 tenure -- marked with discomfort and violence -- likely ends with a loss against the 7-8 veteran. He's a heavy favorite for good reason.

Betting Verdict

• My model is specifically designed to not find value on huge favorites due to variance of all varities, but it still has Anders winning 63.7% of time. He gets a thumbs up from me.
• The interesting betting dynamic in this fight are -102 odds for the fight to go the distance. Pickett has been there in four of eight fights, and Anders has gone the distance in five of his last seven completed bouts. My model has this fight at -210 to go all 15 minutes.
  • It's got Pickett winning just 4.0% of the time by finish. That's mostly injury variance and Anders' previous results. I truly believe only the favorite would end it early.

DFS Verdict

• I've got Anders ($20) at #4 in my MVP hierarchy. My model has him winning by finish 28.3% of the time, but three others are in a better projected spot for one. I wouldn't blame anyone for targeting Pickett, who has lost inside the distance across three of his last four.

Steve Erceg vs. Matt Schnell

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I've really been fond of Steve Erceg since preliminary tape entering his debut. With a potential third UFC win in three tries against Matt Schnell on Saturday, "Astroboy" might enter title contention.

The Aussie is durable, well-rounded contender. He's posted a +0.70 SSR despite a suboptimal striking D (49%), but his grappling has been the highlight. Erceg has posted 2.00 takedowns per 15 on 33% accuracy, but that accuracy is actually 13 percentage points over general expectation given the elite marks of his first two UFC foes, David Dvorak (70%) and Alessandro Costa (90%). He's also registered a submission attempt in each fight.

"Danger" Schnell is never an easy out, though. His all-or-nothing style has secured a performance bonus in three of his last seven fights. Nonetheless, the veteran has just a 2-4 record in his last six because he's struggled striking (-0.22 SSR) or defending takedowns (46%).

Erceg's ability to burst through stronger takedown Ds in previous bouts gives him a pretty high floor in this spot, and divisional trends heavily work against the 34-year-old Schnell here. Flyweight is a division built on youth and speed, and fighters currently on the roster who have competed at 34 years or older are 0-5 in those appearances.

It's also incredibly hard to pick Schnell, a seemingly finish-or-bust proposition, against a 28-year-old that hasn't been stopped in 12 pro fights when 4 have come against previous or current UFC competitors.

Betting Verdict

• Erceg finished four of his last five fights in Australia in the first round, but he's faced solid defensive combatants since coming stateside. Schnell's reckless approach really leads me toward his first-round prop (+175) and under 1.5 rounds (+112) in this one.

DFS Verdict

• I actually see Erceg ($18) as one of the better MVP candidates on the card, and back-to-back decisions should render him fairly unpopular in that area. This is an entirely different matchup than Dvorak or Costa were.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

You certainly can't dispute Bekzat Almakhan's confidence.

Almakhan's nine-fight winning streak in Kazakhstan's Octagon League promotion were likely on the path of a UFC shot at some point similar to the country's other exports -- such as top-five welterweight Shavkat Rakhmonov. He's diving off the deep end to meet top-five bantamweight contender Umar Nurmagomedov in this spot.

The cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov is a first for me, appearing so skilled that even other top-five fighters continue to duck him. Behind absurd stats like a 70% striking accuracy, 75% striking defense, and over four takedowns per 15 minutes, Umar has met basically zero resistance in a 4-0 UFC start. His last win over Raoni Barcelos (7-4 UFC) was a first-round dismantling.

He's closed as at least a -500 favorite in every UFC fight and looked worth twice of whatever amount was laid, so the -1200 odds in this spot -- while prohibitive -- aren't necessarily poor value.

I try my best to turn every stone and not lazily back prohibitive favorites, but a newcomer facing one of the most spotless bantamweights to ever set foot in the octagon is nearly indefensible matchmaking. I'm surprised it's even sanctioned.

Almost certainly, Umar's next fight will be for UFC gold. Without any data or measuring stick whatsoever on Almakhan, consider me not willing to go out on a limb and predict what would be the fourth-largest upset in UFC history.

Betting Verdict

• Nurmagomedov's -1200 moneyline and the -176 odds this fight ends early speak for themselves, so you're somewhat narrowed to props in this space. Almakhan's only pro loss came via submission, but Umar's two standing KOs also open the possibility. I'd lean toward the latter with no real discernible method in such a lopsided bout.
  • A pass in such a spot never hurts.

DFS Verdict

• Nurmagomedov ($23) is the card's "control" option at MVP. It's about accepting or rejecting him, and it's not like Umar has been perfect in this spot before. As a -900 favorite over Nate Maness (4-2 UFC), he tallied just 82.4 FanDuel points as the fight went the distance.
  • That's a pretty insane floor, however.

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Every favorite likely won't win on this card. Unlike most, I see this as a place for a potential upset.

Muhammad Mokaev talks, acts, and has won like an Umar Nurmagomedov in the UFC's flyweight division, but his results haven't quite been the same. Mokaev has entered the third round in each of his last four fights as a patient grappler. While he's won all of them, he's done very little damage (1.12 significant strikes per minute overall) to Charles Johnson, Malcolm Gordon, Jafel Filho, and Tim Elliott.

Prolonged results against that quartet just aren't overly imposing when none of them have a winning record beyond a combined record of 17-26. Mokaev's 6.53 takedowns per 15 minutes (with 53% accuracy) are elite, but he's going to get outpointed by someone with better takedown defense than the average mark between those four (52%).

It's possible Alex Perez is that guy when looking at just a 77% takedown D, but there's pretty sour context around Perez's recent UFC run, too. His last two losses -- albeit to former and current champions -- have been surrounded by 10 canceled fights and injury issues galore. There isn't a human outside of Perez's camp that knows his current ability level.

However, when we last regularly saw him, the results were excellent. Perez's +1.53 SSR comes with elite striking accuracy (48%) and defense (60%), and he's added 2.84 takedowns per 15 of his own behind better accuracy than Mokaev (55%). He also has three submission wins of his own, but all of this great work came in a previous era of UFC. Since June 2020, Perez has just 3:28 in octagon time due to two quick (and potentially fluky) submission results.

I have no idea what Alex Perez I'm getting, but I think there's a reason this line is shorter than many of the other prohibitive favorites on this card. Perez's archetype seems designed to beat a low-volume wrestler like Mokaev if he's close to the same guy in 2024.

Betting Verdict

• Both fighters met my model's 45-minute requirement for fight time, and when modeling them against each other, I've got Perez 51.9% to win. His quick submissions against Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja aside, he's been more efficient and well-rounded fighting tougher competition across the board.
• I'm closer to oddsmakers with a projection that this fight ends early 65.6% of the time. It seems wild, but I have Perez's inside-the-distance prop at +270 compared to the +500 odds on FanDuel.
  • Mokaev's submission prop (+145) should be a popular choice this weekend after three straight wins by sub. I'm showing no value when at +215 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• Mokaev's +105 inside-the-distance odds are terrifying to fade in this setting, but the raucous environment could also produce a nice score for Perez ($12). He's quietly finished five of his seven UFC wins.

Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

If any heavy favorite on this card falls, Tyson Pedro pulling the upset here wouldn't be overly surprising.

Pedro, a stalwart of this 205-pound division despite an injury layoff between 2018 and 2022, has returned to the promotion with a bang. He's posted a 3-1 record with finishes in all three triumphs. There is some pumping of the brakes required, though, when those three wins came over foes a combined 1-12 during their time with UFC.

Nonetheless, Pedro can seemingly do it all. He's scored knockouts in all those recent triumphs with a +0.58 SSR overall, and he's got two UFC wins by submission. The red flags for the 32-year-old (other than the previous injuries) are a 54% takedown defense and -- perhaps -- his endurance, which waned in a decision loss to Modestas Bukauskas (3-4 UFC) that represents his only setback since the comeback.

Bukauskas was the last UFC win for Vitor Petrino, who demolished "The Baltic Gladiator" with a second-round KO. Petrino's massive size for this division is a hallmark trait, carrying significantly more muscle mass than most 205ers, including Pedro despite the two-inch reach and height edge in the Aussie's direction. He's now burrowed through consecutive multi-time UFC winners by finish.

Analytically, Petrino is a stronger wrestler (4.15 takedowns per 15 with 70% accuracy) than a striker (+0.42 SSR), but that's not to say he's horrible at either. Pedro's path to an upset here likely coincides with the Brazilian's subpar 43% striking D.

Pedro's level of competition makes it extremely hard for me to call an upset in this spot. Bukauskas was the only decent measuring stick he faced, and it went extremely poorly. I respect Petrino's dominant submission win over Marcin Prachnio (4-5 UFC) to the point where I'd be surprised if Petrino doesn't lean on his wrestling to coast though Pedro's poor takedown D.

Betting Verdict

• Petrino is my win pick despite a less-than-appetizing -310 moneyline. I think the way to bet this fight is trusting Pedro's veteran acumen and submission defense to back Petrino's decision prop (+260), which might be a hair undervalued given recent finishes.

DFS Verdict

• Petrino's takedown volume and accuracy opens the door for flex consideration at $18 even in the event of a decision, but MVP consideration just isn't necessary. There are others with far easier nights at the office before him.

Shamil Gaziev vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

This particular card doesn't have a more fitting main event. A fighter that's lost five of his last seven will face Shamil Gaziev in just his second UFC appearance.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik had title aspirations in Gaziev's position, but a quick knockout loss to the departed Francis Ngannou started a skid where Rozenstruik hasn't beaten a currently ranked heavyweight. "Bigi Boi" isn't short on power (2.71% knockdown rate) but has come up short just about everywhere else. Rozenstruik's 45% striking D has led to a -0.34 SSR, and he's never authored a UFC takedown or submission attempt.

On the flip side, Gaziev is just one fight into his UFC career, but it was a a pretty impressive one as he compiled a +41 striking differential while knocking Martin Buday (4-1 UFC) from the ranks of the promotion's undefeated. Along with a +5.26 SSR, Gaziev also found a submission in 158 seconds on DWCS, so he can do it all by this division's standard to this point. It'll just be a matter of how it translates to the ranked level.

There is a path for Rozenstruik to pull the upset here. Behind a 73% takedown defense, it's possible that Gaziev isn't incredibly successful with his wrestling, tires, and Rozenstruik lands a seminal blow. However, I'm not even sure Gaziev will need to turn to his wrestling with a much higher striking accuracy (51%) and defense (60%) than Bigi Boi.

I haven't back Rozenstruik since his 2019 bout with Alistair Overeem. The inefficient power puncher isn't a very stable, predictable archetype. I certainly don't have the urge to buck that trend against a pupil of the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Betting Verdict

• Rozenstruik actually has significantly more five-round experience, so I'm looking toward Gaziev's first, second, or third-round prop (-120) to back as lopsided of a fight as this appears on paper while also avoiding the Russian's noted endurance concerns.

DFS Verdict

• With -1450 odds this fight ends inside the distance, we can expect a pretty substantial chance a nice DFS night is one one side of this bout or another. I'll take Gaziev ($20), the favorite who enters significantly more efficient in all phases of MMA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.