UFC Vegas 86: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC Vegas 86: Hermansson vs. Pyfer, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Daniel Marcos vs. Aoriqileng

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

UFC veterans will kick off Saturday's card, and Daniel Marcos will look to hold serve as one of the card's largest favorites.

The Peruvian is an undefeated 15-0 professionally, but he answered any (and perhaps all) questions by defeating veteran Davey Grant (6-6 UFC) in just his second fight with the promotion. Marcos has excellent kickboxing that has allowed him to post a +1.18 striking success rate (SSR) and phenomenal 69% striking defense through three UFC-affiliated appearances. Questions still remain on his grappling, but an 89% takedown defense is why we don't have them answered.

Grant scored a submission win in March 2023, but he was stuffed on his only attempt against Marcos. Any attempts to get there were thwarted. If Marcos can do the same to Aoriqileng, I'm fairly confident he wins this fight.

"The Mongolian Murderer" is up there in UFC's pound-for-pound nickname rankings, but his 3-3 UFC career leaves me highly skeptical. His three wins went 2-6 against all others, and they've all since been cut from the promotion. With much question, he's less accomplished than Grant even was.

We can pretty much rule out Aoriqileng being the better striker (-0.25 SSR) in this one, so he'll have tap into his power -- not well-supported by a 0.59% knockdown rate -- or outwrestle Marcos. Against the weaker foes, he has put forth 1.64 takedowns per 15 minutes with a passable-if-not-solid 46% accuracy.

Mentally, I just can't leap from Marcos stuffing the shot from Grant to all of a sudden becoming a grappling liability against one of bantamweight's iffiest propositions. I don't believe this is the spot the rising UFC prospect tumbles.

Betting Verdict

• Marcos checks the level of competition and analytical efficiency boxes by default, and Aoriqileng used to compete at 125 pounds in UFC. I would be pretty stunned if the Mongolian imposed his physical will not even six months after Marcos cleared a hurdle that I respect in "Dangerous" Davey Grant.
  • Even at cost, I prefer Marcos' decision prop (+120) to a knockout (+300) in this spot. He's gone the distance in two of three UFC-affiliated bouts that's right in line with a mediocre 46.7% pro finishing rate.

DFS Verdict

• The fight being -152 to go the distance inspires less hope for an early KO than you'd like, but Marcos ($21) attempts 10.61 significant strikes per minute. That's a pace that can put enough points on the board in a decision to merit flex consideration.

Hyder Amil vs. Fernie Garcia

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

This fight features an 0-3 UFC fighter stepping in on eight days' notice. What could possibly go wrong?

That fighter is Fernie Garcia, who usually competes at bantamweight. Garcia will join other Fortis MMA teammates on this card, and he's hoping a higher weight brings better results. Garcia's first three UFC foes are 2-5 against all others, and there's just not much hope analytically.

Garcia has landed a putrid 1.80 significant strikes per minute with poor 34% accuracy, and his striking (51%) and takedown (47%) defense both leave a ton to be desired. While I understand the argument he's undervalued in some capacity after running into Rinya Nakamura (2-0 UFC), the -20 striking differential to a now-cut Journey Newson (1-4 UFC) looms fairly large.

Hyder Amil is making his debut as the favorite after earning a contract during 2023's Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS). Amil's fight wasn't aesthetically beautiful, but he showed off his takedown defense (78%) to amass a +0.26 SSR. His 52% striking accuracy and 53% striking D also were fairly plain.

However, Amil also went 3-0 in Bellator, North America's second-largest MMA promotion to UFC. He's faced better competition than a majority of DWCS newcomers, and that's intriguing.

I didn't have a super high evaluation on Amil in a vacuum, but Garcia -- up in weight -- in extremely beatable. Fernie just hasn't landed any sort of high-quality offense since a quick (and fluky?) DWCS knockout of his own.

The 15 minutes that Amil registered on DWCS at least give me conviction he can stay on the feet and be the latest to outpace Garcia at distance.

Betting Verdict

• I won't be betting this fight. Garcia has been fairly durable before the Nakamura fight by going the full distance, so there's no certainty of fight environment, and Amil's -194 moneyline is quite steep for a debutant.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I think you can mix Amil ($19) in flex spots. His 62.5% pro finishing rate isn't super inspiring for a quick fight, but his regional competition was tougher than most, and Garcia's poor defense is always a candidate.

Zac Pauga vs. Bogdan Guskov

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

Former Houston Texans fullback Zac Pauga will look to score his second UFC win on Saturday, but he's got a scary dude in front of him.

Pauga, realistically, should already have it. He had a +7 striking differential and landed 57% of his significant strikes to Modestas Bukauskas' 50%. Most media scorecards believed Pauga won, but that's MMA judging.

Nonetheless, Bukauskas is 3-4 in UFC, and his only win over Jordan Wright (2-5 UFC) wasn't overly impressive, either. I'm willing to give the athlete a shot when posting a +1.72 SSR and a 100% takedown defense -- despite no offensive wrestling or grappling yet. It'll only get tougher from here, including Saturday against Bogdan Guskov in Guskov's first appearance outside of the UFC rankings.

The 14-3 pro from Uzbekistan was submitted in the first round by Volkan Oezdemir, but Oezdemir has beaten seven-multi-time UFC winners. That result alone doesn't mean Guskov won't stick, and Pauga provides no submission danger in this particular matchup.

"Czarevitch" finished all 14 of his pro regional wins with some violent KOs in the process, and he was just a +154 underdog against Oezdemir inside the light heavyweight rankings. Giving him a similar number against Pauga -- who hasn't accomplished much of anything -- is an interesting choice.

Add in that Pauga was knocked out in his UFC debut, and this feels like a definite underdog-or-pass spot.

Betting Verdict

• Even with a lower count of UFC fights, Guskov is the much more seasoned pro dating back to 2015. Pauga became a pro in 2020. Guskov's moneyline (+100) is really desirable at the price when he also has a 100% pro finishing rate to Pauga's 16.7%.
  • I'm looking at Guskov's submission prop (+1700) in this fight, too. He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt when Pauga has no pro wins or losses by submission. He's yet to face this sort of danger from a 205er.

DFS Verdict

• I see Guskov ($15) as a vital value play on the main slate. Pauga's low (non-existent?) finishing rate as a favorite is revolting in this particular format -- especially when Guskov has only been finished twice in nearly nine years.

Jeremiah Wells vs. Max Griffin

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

This is the first of two fights buried on the early prelims that I was, surprisingly, able to model. Both Jeremiah Wells and Max Griffin met the sample size.

"Father Time" could make this fight's winner look obvious in hindsight with Wells at 37 year old and Griffin at 38. The hourglass can run out quickly in this spot. Nonetheless, Wells is 4-1 in his last five fights at a higher competition level than Griffin, who sports a 3-2 record in his last five. It's hard not to favor him.

That's especially the case when Griffin's takedown defense (69%) has been decent but not imperfect, and the Philadelphia native is an excellent wrestler. He's posted 3.89 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The takedown accuracy (43%) is also pretty solid for a high volume of shots. Wells has used that to mitigate almost all damage, absorbing just 1.14 significant strikes per minute thus far.

Wells is also the author of a 2.06% knockdown rate, which gives him a power edge over Griffin (1.02%). Max likely will need to exploit Wells' 47% striking defense to win, but I'm not entirely certain he's got the oomph left at an advanced age to make his moments on the feet count.

If not for a fluky submission loss in a fight Wells was dominating, the favorite would be fighting a ranked opponent at the moment. Griffin (0.3 submission attempts per 15) doesn't offer up much of that threat, either.

Though with some ambiguity of how it looks for Jeremiah, I don't know where Griffin wins this fight.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Wells 72.8% likely to win the distance striking differential and gives him a 73.6% advantage in my weighted grappling expectancy. His own striking D is a concern, but he's 62.2% likely to win, per the model, for good reason.
  • The prop showing the most value is Wells' inside-the-distance prop (+165), which I have at +126.
• Griffin has been the distance in four straight, but age and attrition have the model believing this one ends early 59.2% of the time. It's -140 to do so on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Wells' wrestling-oriented approach can be a DFS dud without a finish, but I think he's still worth flex consideration at $17.

Devin Clark vs. Marcin Prachnio

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

Here's another prelim I was able to model. Flawed veterans Devin Clark and Marcin Prachnio should prove to test any marginal improvement of each other's historical weaknesses here.

Riding a 3-2 streak in his last five fights, I wouldn't exactly consider Prachnio "flailing" as some would. The unique size of Vitor Petrino (3-0 UFC) resulted in a submission loss for him last time out, but Prachnio's other recent setback was with a +10 striking differential against Phillippe Lins. I'm not sure he lost. His dominant win over Khalil Rountree Jr. (9-4 UFC) is as solid of an argument for a roster spot as it gets.

Prachnio's elite kickboxing (+2.14 SSR) is at the mercy of his 54% takedown D holding, and he has been KO'd three times himself. That's why Clark is favored.

"Brown Bear" Clark can absolutely wrestle. He averages 7.12 attempts per 15 minutes and lands exactly 33% of those, which isn't an extremely high clip. He's best served with a strength advantage and minimal grappling danger, having been submitted four times with the promotion.

The Polish 205er doesn't bring submission prowess, but he does have a skillset that could tee off on Clark's horrid 43% striking D. This is one of those fights where both fighters have a path to completely and absolutely dominate, so I'm not sure why one of them is +194 to win.

Betting Verdict

• I do have Clark as 53.2% likely to win on the back of his wrestling, but that leaves the betting value squarely on Prachnio. After all, he did defend 7 of 11 attempts from Lins, whose takedown accuracy (35%) is higher than Clark's.
• I've got this fight 75.9% likely to go the distance when factoring in Clark's lack of submission danger and Prachnio's poor knockdown rate (0.25%).
  • It's worth noting that puts value on Prachnio's decision prop (+390), which I have at +190.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight lives up to its -138 billing to go the distance, Clark ($20) will have minimal value in DFS anyway. I like a punt to the striker scoring significant-strike points at $10.

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Bruna Brasil

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Loma Lookboonme might be the champion of UFC's atomweight (105 pounds) division if they had one, but she's not exactly struggled fighting larger girls at 115.

The 5'1" veteran from Thailand has quietly cobbled together a 5-2 UFC career with both losses to ranked, larger athletes in Loopy Godinez and Angela Hill. She's incredibly well-rounded via an elite Muay Thai striking style (+1.56 SSR) and an improving wrestling game. She's up to 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy. The knock on her was a lack of finishing danger -- probably due to size. That was answered with a submission of Elise Reed (3-4 UFC) in her last bout.

MMA math isn't perfect, but Lookboonme seems to be in a favorable spot this weekend. She ragdolled Denise Gomes (2-2 UFC) for a +29 striking differential with four takedowns, and Gomes handed Bruna Brasil her only UFC loss in similar, convincing fashion. Brasil ceded three takedowns, a knockdown, and a +39 striking differential to Gomes when the pair met in 2023.

Brasil's 5'6" frame is elite for this division, but her strength of victory thus far is objectively putrid. Marnic Mann (0-1 UFC) and Shauna Bannon (0-1 UFC) are her wins, averaging a -1.73 SSR themselves. I'd normally use that as context to write off her excellent peripheral metrics, but that's not even the case. Brasil has a -0.50 SSR and 53% takedown D in the three appearances.

Gomes' physicality was too much for Brasil, and Loma manhandled her. I just don't understand an argument for the underdog in this spot. Lookboonme went the distance in both of her defeats with unphased durability to this stage. Without the ability to make up a skill deficit with one punch or submission attempt, I have zero clue how Brasil wins the fight against the 28-year-old still well in her fighting prime.

Betting Verdict

• Historical upset rates in women's divisions be darned. Lookboonmee might be my most confident favorite of 2023 so far. She's better everywhere with significantly more experience and no age concerns. A -290 price as a parlay piece feels like a gift.
  • This is so lopsided that, now seeing finishing upside, I think you've got to consider her inside-the-distance prop (+240), too.

DFS Verdict

• I'll mix in Lookboonmee ($22) in MVP spots just out of sheer personal confidence. We see heavy favorites upset all the time, but very few of them check quite literally every box you'd hope for except size. Even then, physicality (which is the whole point of size) lies with the favorite.

Bolaji Oki vs. Timothy Cuamba

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Nothing quite says "Apex card" like a fight on four days' notice. Good to see you again, Timothy Cuamba.

Cuamba won a dicey decision on the 2023 season of DWCS. With no wrestling or grappling at all, Cuamba landed the "harder" shots to earn it despite a -1.60 SSR, but any sort of power will be tough to mount in this 155-pound division -- at least relative to Bolaji Oki -- on short notice. Cuamba's 34% striking accuracy was poor, and his 53% striking D wasn't special against an unproven commodity.

It's not like Oki faced a world-crusher himself, but landing 11.57 significant strikes per minute in a first-round knockout was a significantly more impactful statement. He was initially scheduled for Damir Hadzovic (4-5 UFC) in this debut, which was more of a well-roundedness check than anything given Hadzovic's 34% takedown D, and he showed some wrestling on the regional scene.

I don't have a ton to add on this fight of matching debutants, but Oki is in his organic weight class and, without any exception, has a statistical advantage in every category with a sample over Cuamba.

Cuamba didn't earn a UFC contract after his poor showing, so saving Oki's fight week was his shot to make it in in the featherweight division down the road. That, in all likelihood, won't start with a lightweight win on Saturday.

Betting Verdict

• I don't feel comfortable recommending a straight wager on Oki's moneyline or a specific prop given the small samples at hand. Though my intuition is Oki stops the fight rather quickly, it wouldn't come from a place of quality information.

DFS Verdict

• The DFS format allows for more wiggle room to take risks, and I'd like to with a potential monstrous score from Oki ($19), who is one of my favorite MVP candidates on the card. This seems like a squash match.

Carlos Prates vs. Trevin Giles

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

I'll mention the name Caio Borralho a few times in this with many middleweights to come, but the leader of "Fighting Nerds" is exporting smart fighters to UFC. Carlos Prates earned a shot from the camp in August on DWCS, and we'll see how he does.

It's impossible to know exactly how much his second-round finish of Mitch Ramirez there mattered, but his striking peripherals weren't flawless. On offense, he landed 4.81 significant strikes per minute with 63% accuracy. That's the good. The bad? A 47% striking defense against potential a sub-UFC-caliber foe. He also failed to defend Ramirez's lone takedown attempt.

Prates' woes need to be shored up quickly because Trevin Giles is no cupcake as a first test. In fact, on paper, Giles has no weaknesses of skill. He has plus marks for the division in striking accuracy (53%) and defense (59%), and he's added 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 55% accuracy. Giles also defends takedowns at a 71% clip. The Fortis MMA product just has made untimely mistakes and has been finished in all five UFC losses.

The level of competition in those losses matters, though. All of them have at least 10 UFC wins or a 66% win rate, and the experience from a 7-5 UFC tenure might be extremely valuable facing a newcomer. The former 185er is also now 2-2 at welterweight with the only setbacks to Michael Morales (5-0 UFC) and Gabriel Bonfim (2-1 UFC).

Giles' reputation precedes him at this stage, but Prates is completely and totally unproven. Ramirez hasn't made any appearance with any major fight promotion outside of his DWCS loss. We just saw all three debuting fighters last week go all 15 minutes or lose, so it's hard to assume another runs through a divisional staple.

Betting Verdict

• Though far from dependable, Giles' moneyline (+198) is worth a bet in this spot just from his historical defensive efficiency. He just dispatched Preston Parsons (2-2 UFC) 11 months ago. Prates is a total unknown quantity.
• I wouldn't have guessed 9 of Giles' 12 fights have ended inside the distance given his measured pace. I'm fairly stumped on this total, which is +108 to go under 1.5 rounds.

DFS Verdict

• I think punting to Giles ($9) is the correct play. There is more upside in Prates' direction, but his floor -- and unknown -- is significantly lower than some of the other favorites in excellent spots.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

If you get dejà vu reading this, it's because I did preview this fight before UFC São Paulo in November. It was cancelled on fight day due to an illness and never happened. Yet, this matchup remains the exact same.

This is as "striker vs. grappler" as it gets. Rodolfo Vieira is a multi-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with four UFC wins -- all by submission. Armen Petrosyan has compiled a +2.94 SSR in UFC against elite competition with a really solid 52% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense.

In each other's domains, both have badly struggled. Vieira's 48% striking defense is mediocre at best, and he was dropped by Cody Brundage in his last fight before rallying with yet another sub. His -1.48 SSR was most notably victimized by Chris Curtis, who posted a +23 striking differential and defended all 20 (!) takedown attempts in that one.

As for Petrosyan, he's got a horrid 36% takedown defense and was controlled by Caio Borralho (5-0 UFC) for 10:09 of 15 minutes during his only UFC loss. Strikers like AJ Dobson and Gregory Rodrigues landed at least a pair of takedowns against him, too. He's yet to show submission vulnerability, but Vieira should test that in earnest.

Ultimately, Petrosyan's power is the decided element to me in this fight. His knockdown rate (0.26%) is actually quite low, and if he doesn't have the power to starch the BJJ black belt, Vieira should be able to find his legs and control quite a bit of this fight.

I see Vieira as a better version of Borralho at this point, so I'm expecting a similar result.

Betting Verdict

• As I tweak my model for improvements, it was funny to rerun this fight. I had Vieira at 57.5% to win at that point, but an adjustment to my weighted grappling score has him at 52.9%. I still pick him to win with minimal betting value on the moneyline.
  • I prefer a dart at Vieira's decision prop (+500) given how well Petrosyan survived Rodrigues and Borralho on the mat. I've got it at +260.
• All in all, I see this fight as 64.2% likely to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• At near-identical salaries, go with your projected winner here. I'll take Vieira ($16), who is also showing to finish this fight 25.1% of the time in my model to Petrosyan's 10.8%.

Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

UFC matchmakers continually throw me curveballs. When I started doing this in 2020, I'd have never expected I'd be picking Michael Johnson to win a UFC fight in 2024.

"The Menace" shows the scars of fighting at the peak of UFC's toughest division with a 22-19 pro record, but he's not an instant fade by any means. Johnson's elite hand speed has led to a positive SSR (+0.39) despite all of the well-known trials and tribulations, and he's at his absolute best facing grapplers with limited boxing skills. In December 2022, he best Marc Diakiese (7-7 UFC) by stuffing all six of the Englishman's takedowns and outpointing him.

Of course, there's an obvious downside to "favored Michael Johnson". He's been submitted five times and knocked out thrice in UFC, including a KO loss in his most recent start to former ranked contender Diego Ferreira. The submission danger from Darrius Flowers won't be present, but the danger for his shaky chin will be.

This is one of the steepest drops in competition I can recall. Flowers' dreadful regional competition didn't inspire much hope against Jake Matthews at 170 pounds on short notice, and Flowers wasn't able to find the chin of Matthews before an embarrassing submission loss in the second round. He landed just 46% of his head strikes thrown.

Flowers' previous UFC bookings were with Ottman Azaitar (2-2 UFC) and Erick Gonzalez (0-3 UFC), and this is his first cut to lightweight professionally when Johnson is still dangerous. He's still posted two knockdowns in his last four fights.

M.J. isn't entirely reliable to see the end of this fight, but he should completely and totally dominate it for as long as he stays conscious.

Betting Verdict

• I've bet Johnson already at a -135 price point, and I wouldn't go higher than that. Johnson's moneyline is -134 on FanDuel as of Friday morning. Flowers only has one regional loss by KO, so it's equally possible Johnson uses a safer approach to win by decision as his 10th UFC knockout would be.
• With ambiguity on M.J.'s approach, I don't have a great read on this total.

DFS Verdict

• Johnson has multiple-knockdown, first-round upside at $16, but the floor is also painfully low. Anyone who has rostered Johnson in the past five years knows the highs and lows. His best role is probably a flex play, but Flowers ($15) will also carry popularity for a potential exploitation of his fading chin.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brad Tavares

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

"Robocop" is back in another winnable matchup.

Gregory Rodrigues was flying toward the UFC rankings before taking a fight with Brunno Ferreira (2-1 UFC) on short notice, and one-fight variance took over. The powerful Ferreira knocked him out, ending what otherwise would be a six-fight winning streak to most. Rodrigues was gifted a great matchup with Denis Tiuliulin (1-4 UFC) and responded with a quick and easy first-round finish.

Rodrigues can really do it all. He lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy even if the defense rating (51%) is lower than you'd hope. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has added 2.40 takedowns and 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. You can also ask Julian Marquez, who was dropped three times in 188 seconds, if he has any power.

Robocop's lone weakness appears to be lapses in head defense, a signature trait lacking for Brad Tavares his entire career. Tavares' 0.10% knockdown rate is miniscule, and it's not going up at 36 years old. Tavares has coasted out a 15-8 UFC career on the basis of good boxing (+0.35 SSR) and elite takedown defense (82%) considering the sample, but he's got new concerns to worry about.

Tavares was once legendarily durable, but Bruno Silva (4-4 UFC) stopped him in under four minutes by knockout, and Edmen Shahbazyan (5-4 UFC) knocked him down twice and finished him via head kick. Once easily the pick to win the chin war with Rodrigues, I'm not so sure now.

On paper, Rodrigues has all of this fight's grappling upside with a one-inch reach and more powerful, efficient striking offense. He's set up well to continue to build toward the rankings.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Rodrigues winning this fight 63.9% of the time. That doesn't show value on its own, but compare the finishing upside in the model, and it's not close. It believes Robocop wins 49.3% of the time inside the distance to Tavares' 2.4%. If Brad wins, it'll be surviving a shocking clunker from the favorite.
• This is a clash of historical distance. Rodrigues hasn't seen the cards in five of his last six fights, but Tavares has seen them in four of his last five. The model leans slightly (51.7%) that this fight ends early.

DFS Verdict

• With minimal faith in Tavares' chin, Rodrigues ($20) merits MVP consideration. While it's possible that he gets lulled into the Hawaiian's traditional point fighting, I rate Rodrigues' power and efficiency so much higher than Silva, who got the result we want in this format.

Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Robert Bryczek's opponent for his UFC debut has changed three times. It's now former 205-pounder Ihor Potieira, who is hoping to improve upon a 1-3 UFC record in a new weight class. On short notice, Potieria didn't quite make it to the 186-pound limit (187.5), though.

Bryczek is this card's mystery man, debuting from the Czech Republic's OKTAGON MMA promotion that also featured multi-time UFC winners like Ludovit Klein, Martin Buday, and others. He skipped right over DWCS to projected matchups against Jacob Malkoun (3-3 UFC) and Albert Duraev (2-2 UFC), so they're evidently pretty high on him. He needed just over three minutes to starch U.K. veteran Lee Chadwick and enters this one on a five-fight streak of first-round KOs.

I was intrigued to see him based on the initial matchups, but Potieria's substitution means this debut is absolutely a winnable one; he's even a -172 favorite. Bryczek has just one win by submission, so he's not the grappling type that's run through Potieria in UFC, but Ihor hasn't exactly dominated on the feet.

In addition to a -0.97 SSR, Potieira's 41% striking defense is poor. "The Duelist" only has beaten 41-year-old Mauricio "Shogun" Rua well past his prime to this stage.

Dropping down from 205 pounds, Potieria will likely be a more potent power threat than previously, and he already showed a more serious approach to his conditioning in his last fight. However, he's never made this cut professionally and missed weight, so not even he knows how it'll affect his gas tank as the fight progresses.

This was always going to be a spot where any distant underdog was worth consideration, but I can't believe it's the UFC vet. Potieria was a less patient referee from stopping a 205-pound prospect in November. He's got his holes, but his power (1.94% knockdown rate) can make it up in one swing.

Betting Verdict

• I'm not exactly rushing to bet on Potieira, but the +140 price point to fade Bryczek -- a newcomer who has only fought sub-UFC-level competition -- might get me to the window. This is a "what are we doing here?" type of betting line.
• This fight is -1200 to not go the distance for good reason. Potieira hasn't seen a third round in UFC, and Bryczek (71% pro finishing rate) is a willing dance partner.

DFS Verdict

• Especially in this format where value plays are a must, you could make an argument to favor Potieria here solely on the basis of the benefit of the doubt. Add in a near-guaranteed early finish, and his case for a big score at $14 is right in front of us.

Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Both of the featherweight veterans will have to rectify previous demons to get their hand raised here.

Dan Ige is favored on the basis being a better striker, and I'd concur there. Ige's striking accuracy (45%) and defense (57%) are both significantly better than Andre Fili's, but Ige will have to address a 58% takedown defense that's ultimately cost him four of his last six fights.

On the flip side, Fili can win the fight behind his 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% historical accuracy. He's extremely underrated in that department, landing at least three on Sodiq Yusuff, Charles Jourdain, Dennis Bermudez, and other top 145ers. However, in recent years, Fili has proven to be a bit fragile behind a lower striking defense (51%) than you'd like. He's been dropped in two of his last four fights.

Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was that "50K" Ige might be a bit overvalued in the power department. He's now 32, and his 0.76% knockdown rate isn't very high overall. Fili's brittle chin is a concern, but I'd still not consider him more at risk of a knockout than any of Ige's recent victims. Damon Jackson, Nate Landwehr, and Gavin Tucker aren't a Mt. Rushmore of iron chins.

Fili is on short notice after fighting at UFC 296 in December, but he didn't take an ounce of damage in that fight, so it's less of a concern. I agree with my model's assessment of this fight more than oddsmakers', leaving a bit of value on "Touchy" Fili as the underdog.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Ige at -130 compared to these -176 odds. It's giving him a 61.1% chance to win the distance striking, but Fili's weighting grappling edge is 52.3%.
  • I like the idea of betting Fili in a "decision only" market. If his wrestling hasn't taken over the fight, Ige likely has won it via striking damage or knockout. Plus, Andre's submission volume (0.3 attempts per 15) is very low.
• I'm in line with this fight to go the distance (-160), which I've got at 69.5% likely to happen. Fili has lost inside the distance just once in his last 15 fights. Ige hasn't been finished in the octagon.
  • In this event, Fili's decision prop (+270) is undervalued when I have it at +215.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight goes the distance, Ige ($18) may not have the best scoring potential, but I believe he's got a vast majority of this fight's finishing upside. I can understand both arguments for he or Fili ($12) in this spot.

Joe Pyfer vs. Jack Hermansson

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

I've never seen this wide of a "competition level" score in my model for a main event, but Joe Pyfer has perpetually been a unique case.

Always a favorite of Dana White, Pyfer has a chance to fly into the middleweight rankings with a win over Jack Hermansson on Saturday. Don't get me wrong, though; Pyfer can fight. Though his first bids in UFC didn't mean much against the extreme bottom of the division, Pyfer has knocked out divisional vet Gerald Meerschaert (10-9 UFC) and submitted Adbul Razak-Alhassan (6-6 UFC) in his past two bouts.

Those aren't perfect wins but show competence -- as do a +1.30 SSR that's come with 2.97 takedowns per 15 minutes with prolific 83% takedown accuracy. In a division chock full of limited fighters, Pyfer can do it all.

That's always been the trademark of "Joker" Jack, too. Hermansson was once a title contender, but a 3-4 skid -- with all losses coming to the top 10 of the division -- has resigned him to "gatekeeper" for the time being. Still, UFC has thrown Hermansson up-and-comers like Edmen Shahbazyan and Chris Curtis (5-2 UFC) his way, and he dominated both.

Hermansson's +1.44 SSR comes with zero career knockdowns, so he doesn't have the power to erase all mistakes in one go, but he's a solid grappler -- evidenced by a 75% takedown defense that's higher than Pyfer's (50%) against championship-level competition.

This is a great fight for both. Hermansson's recent setbacks -- like a knockout by Jared Cannonier or ground mistake against Roman Dolidze -- have been momentary lapses, and those could prove to be fatal against Pyfer's 2.17% knockdown rate or 1.8 submission attempts per 15. However, there's no doubt Hermansson is Pyfer's toughest foe to date by a country mile.

He could just not be ready, and this is a five-round fight when Pyfer has not seen a ninth minute in the octagon. We're collectively trying to write "The Joker" off in this fight, but if he can weather an early storm, he might not write back.

Betting Verdict

• My model dictated the prop-based method I'll bet this fight.
  • Hermansson hasn't been submitted since 2016, so the model has Pyfer winning by knockout 40.1% of the time. I'll sprinkle his first, second, or third-round knockout line (+165) to avoid the cardio questions.
  • If Jack survives, my model has him winning by finish just 4.4% of the time. I'll bet Hermansson's fourth, fifth, or decision prop (+450) in the event he does make it to the championship rounds.
• Overall, the model has this fight 63.0% likely to end early. FanDuel's implied odds for that are 81.1%

DFS Verdict

• There's a mammoth score always lurking behind "Bodybagz" Pyfer ($23), so he's likely the DFS target. If Hermansson ($13) grinds out a late win, I'm not overly sure it would score particularly well in fantasy MMA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.