UFC Vegas 83: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks
If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.
Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.
There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.
Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 83: Song vs. Gutierrez, taking place at the UFC's Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Rayanne Amanda dos Santos vs. Talita Alencar
Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rayanne Amanda | -158 | $16 | 5' 2" | 62" | -3.20 | 2.60 |
Talita Alencar | +128 | $14 | 5' 1" | 58" | -3.47 | 3.00 |
What do you do with two fighters in the same weight class that both failed to win on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS)? Evidently, the answer is match them up.
Rayanne Amanda dos Santos made an appearance in 2022's season, losing to Denise Gomes (3-2 UFC) via decision. She was dominated, but Gomes has already faced a ranked opponent, so the promotion decided that Amanda dos Santos deserved a second chance against an unranked fighter. In that fight against Gomes, Amanda dos Santos struggled to mount striking (31% accuracy) or wrestling (25%) accuracy offensively, but she did defend 57% of Gomes' significant strikes and survive.
She's really a grappler by trade with 8 of her 14 pro wins coming via submission. That was a natural match for Talita Alencar.
Alencar's DWCS opponent has yet to debut in UFC, but she was an impulse signing by White after a back-and-forth affair with Stephanie Luciano that ended in a draw. He took both of them. Personally, I was fairly unimpressed with Alencar when she only landed 4 of her 24 takedown attempts and never set up an official submission attempt. She also faded badly from a cardio perspective, allowing Luciano a 10-8 final round to sneak out with a tie.
Alencar's black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) was on display across the regional scene, but her lack of size at 5'1" and tiny, 58" reach showed to be an issue against a better opponent. Across the board, I've got a higher grappling expectation for Amanda dos Santos than Luciano, who has zero career wins or losses via submission. If Alencar can't find a submission or plenty of control time, she has no path to win this fight.
Betting Verdict
- This could be a fight for tiny nibbles or darts. Alencar's poor striking opens up Amanda dos Santos' knockout prop (+750), but perhaps Alencar is able to find a third first-round submission (+1200) in six fights. If Amanda dos Santos passes the grappling tests early, she should win going away.
- This fight to not go the distance (+124) is a one-size-fits-all solution for all of them.
DFS Verdict
- These are two highly-volatile, young prospects with plenty of flaws. I could see it being fantasy-relevant and side with Amanda dos Santos ($16), giving her clear advantages in size, longevity, and striking acumen.
Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Hernandez
Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tatsuro Taira | -590 | $21 | 5' 7" | 70" | 1.97 | 3.84 |
Carlos Hernandez | +410 | $9 | 5' 8" | 67" | 1.10 | 3.90 |
23-year-old Japanese phenom Tatsuro Taira returns on Saturday in a familiar position. He's a -590 favorite, and he's been a -648 favorite on average in each of his first four appearances -- all of which were dominant wins.
UFC has clearly been taking things slow with Taira, who has star potential to become the country's first champion. He's used 2.41 takedowns and 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes to dominate foes to this point even if his striking defense (47%) has given him a few hairy moments. To this point, he's survived the punches to vanquish all challengers.
Carlos Hernandez is yet another opponent that profiles for the same type of fight. He'll lead the dance on the feet behind a +1.10 SSR, but Hernandez's 62% takedown D already resulted in a loss via submission to Allan Nascimento (2-1 UFC). Hernandez also ceded two sub attempts -- but survived -- on DWCS.
Hernandez's two UFC wins came over opponents who combined for three takedowns but haven't attempted a submission in UFC to this point. Taira is lethal and voluminous in that department, which is how these betting odds take shape.
More than any other factor, Hernandez hasn't scored a UFC knockdown and does not have a single professional win by knockout. He just doesn't have much of power. I respect the veteran's efficiency in other matchups, but if he can't maximize his time on the feet with damage, he's in a terrible spot against perhaps the division's best pure grappler.
Betting Verdict
- Taira has gotten into a dominant spot and/or finished all four of his bouts on the ground, and we've seen lesser grapplers put Hernandez in precarious spots. This line is what it is for a reason.
- His submission prop (+115) is stunning to see at plus money given Hernandez's historical issues in this area.
DFS Verdict
- Taira ($21) is one of my favorite MVP candidates on the card as he's perhaps a bit undervalued for a finish following a decision against another BJJ black belt (Edgar Chairez) in his last bout. Hernandez's ability to survive hasn't been nearly as present.
Luana Santos vs. Stephanie Egger
Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luana Santos | -158 | $17 | 5' 6" | 67" | 10.58 | 10.26 |
Stephanie Egger | +128 | $15 | 5' 6" | 68" | -0.15 | 2.64 |
Stephanie Egger is a three-time UFC winner at bantamweight, but after a loss to unranked Irina Alekseeva (1-1 UFC) as a substantial favorite in her last fight, she's looking for a bounce-back effort. It's possible the Judo ace continues to physically dominate others when she's averaged 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes so far.
However, Egger's greeness -- with just 12 pro fights at 35 years old -- absolutely shows everywhere else. Her standup is basically non-existent (1.93 significant strikes per 15 minutes), and she's been submitted in two of her three UFC losses with a lack of jiu-jitsu acumen. Her path to victory thus far has been overwhelming inexperienced fighters (7-10 combined UFC record) with no submission skills.
Saturday will tell us if Luana Santos fits that mold. I'm guessing not; she's scored three of her six pro victories via submission. However, Santos used her standup to blitz through Julianna Miller (0-2 UFC), landing 63 significant strikes in under 4 minutes and scoring a TKO. Miller's striking (-1.44 SSR) is notoriously terrible, but Egger (-0.15 SSR) isn't really bringing a much better offensive skillset to the table. Her 53% striking D just isn't as poor.
This line has continued to balloon throughout the week, and it's likely with sharp bettors arriving at the same conclusion as me. Santos defended both of Miller's takedown attempts, and competent takedown D will lead to another rout on the feet for the LFA alum. Even if this hits the mat, she's the better jiu-jitsu practitioner.
There are wider moneylines on the card, but this would be my weekly "survivor" pick to win if such a concept existed in UFC as it does the NFL. My lone concern in Santos' odd weight miss on Friday, but the minimum fine for it likely indicates a forgivable medical reason.
Betting Verdict
- Personally, I'd peg Santos' moneyline much higher than -158. Egger is a very similar challenge to Miller. For what she gains in striking defense and wrestling acumen, she's less capable in jiu-jitsu and a less willing striker than Julianna. I think she clears this one, too.
- Under 2.5 rounds (+120) is my favorite bet in the fight. All three of Egger's UFC wins have come inside the distance if her newfound size at 125 pounds ends up being the deciding factor.
- Women's flyweights historical rates are the only reason this line is so long.
DFS Verdict
- We've got plenty of bloodbank MVP candidates on this card, but I don't want to lose track of Santos ($17) when not fully trusting many of them.
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Melquizael Costa | -260 | $20 | 5' 10" | 71" | 2.58 | 4.01 |
Steve Garcia | +205 | $10 | 6' 0" | 75" | 2.24 | 3.65 |
I initially had this fight prepared last week before it was cancelled. Did I save the preview I already wrote? Of course not; I assumed Steve Garcia was ducking this brutal matchup with an "illness", but kudos to "Mean Machine" for still being game a week later.
In Garcia's defense, he does have a clear and obvious path to win this matchup. At 6'0", Garcia is massive for this weight class, and he's put than on full display with four knockdowns in two fights at 145 pounds. So far, his power has been an issue for two opponents that lacked the striking or strength to take advantage of what he doesn't do well at distance. That's a 46% striking D -- and one that's been the victim of some embarrassing KOs previously.
The problem is Melquizael Costa. That's it; he's just a problem. Costa's short-notice debut at 155 pounds against native 155er Thiago Moises (7-5 UFC) was quickly erased by absolutely mopping the floor with divisional stalwart Austin Lingo. Costa had a +61 striking differential, landed 45% of his significant strikes, defended 72% (!) of Lingo's, and added three takedowns on eight attempts. He showed it all against a fighter with more UFC success than Garcia.
While Steve's 94% takedown defense has been tough to crack, Costa's striking efficiency should carry him at worst. Even if this fight were to hit the mat, you'd have to favor Melky (six pro wins via submission) to Garcia, who has never won a pro fight by sub.
Costa's lone career loss via KO/TKO came as a doctor's stoppage due to a cut in 2017. He's never been put out cold, and if that holds true through this fight, chances are he's won it in convincing fashion.
Betting Verdict
- Garcia was submitted in 2017 by promotional flameout Aalon Cruz (0-2 UFC), so Costa's submission prop (+500) should not be so much wider than his knockout prop. To play it safe, I'd make a more sizable play on Costa's inside-the-distance prop (-110) when he's got a perfect matchup to score his first early UFC result.
DFS Verdict
- Costa ($20) was one of my favorite MVP candidates last week before the cancellation, but he's got much more competition this week with heavier favorites. I still believe he's in the mix, but he's not the slam-dunk, no-doubt choice I viewed him as a week ago.
HyunSung Park vs. Shannon Ross
Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HyunSung Park | -600 | $22 | 5' 7" | 66" | 0.89 | 4.23 |
Shannon Ross | +420 | $8 | 5' 6" | 66" | -2.35 | 3.95 |
My friend Clint MacLean, host of the legendary DieHard MMA Podcast, always advises to not bet on bad gas tanks or chins. Chins don't come much worse than Shannon Ross's.
Ross has been knocked down five times in three UFC-affiliated appearances with his last two losses coming by knockout in a combined 77 seconds. There are elements of Ross' statistical profile that aren't horrible, like a 52% striking defense and attempting an excellent 17.31 significant strikes per minute, but you've got to take a live bullet to make any of it matter. Ross' -2.35 SSR has been on the wrong side of beatdowns at every turn.
The promotion has done him as good of a favor as possible with HyunSung Park. Not only is the newcomer totally inexperienced coming from the suboptimal quality on Road to the UFC in Asia, but he's primarily a grappler. He's never scored a UFC-affiliated knockdown through the program, averaging 2.23 takedowns and 3.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
However, Park does have two knockouts at distance regionally, which are two more than Jesus Aguilar (1-1 UFC) had before he scored his first professional knockout ever against Ross in July. There is no level of security you could possibly have with "The Turkish Delight" in striking range at this point.
There's an outcome of this fight where Park's competition -- potentially bogus to this point -- has left him unprepared for an opponent that has faced four UFC winners, but you won't catch me betting on this fight one way or another.
Betting Verdict
- HyunSung Park's -600 moneyline has a steep price on plenty of his props, as well. I just don't feel strongly enough about his sample to fade Ross when I can just pass here altogether. This fight embodies "picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer".
DFS Verdict
- In DFS formats, Park ($22) has obvious upside from Ross' chin, but he's also got an 88% pro finishing rate and is +100 to win this fight in the first round. It would be reckless to not consider him at MVP based on info from those who know what they're doing.
- If Ross ($8) shocks the world, his draft percentage will be miniscule at a minimum salary. One side of this fight seems primed to make the perfect lineup.
Kevin Jousset vs. Song Kenan
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Jousset | -154 | $16 | 6' 2" | 75" | -2.08 | 5.89 |
Song Kenan | +126 | $15 | 6' 0" | 71" | -1.46 | 2.80 |
Kevin Jousset's UFC debut made me tear my hair out all week, and I didn't really get the answers I wanted come fight day.
At distance, Jousset posted a wretched 33% striking defense and -2.08 SSR, but he was able to secure a takedown and submit Kiefer Crosbie in the duo's respective UFC debuts. Crosbie had been submitted in the first round of his last fight with Bellator's U.S. promotion, so it wasn't overly surprising.
I'm still unsure where Jousset falls into the UFC's welterweight division, and Song Kenan is actually a perfect measuring stick to see. Kenan has been dominated by the three fighters he's faced with multiple UFC wins, but he's beaten all five others. If a true gatekeeper ever existed in theory, it's Kenan.
There's minimal doubt Kenan is the better striker of these two. At a UFC level, he's landed 47% of his significant strikes and defended 52% of incoming ones. Jousset, at the bottom of the barrel, got tagged a ton in his debut. The question just becomes if Jousset's grappling skills can carry him through this step up.
Well, Kenan's 62% takedown D is thoroughly average for the division, and he's never been submitted professionally and only ceded one attempt in UFC. Regionally, Kenan also had eight victories by submission.
My overall diagnosis would be that he's good enough down there to avoid the same fate as Crosbie, who was always a questionable signing by UFC. If that's the case, the veteran from Tangshan -- who trains domestically at Jackson-Wink MMA -- has a chance to post consecutive wins and his first positive striking differential in four fights.
Betting Verdict
- Kenan's most public, well-known moments have been batterings at the hands of Ian Garry, Max Griffin, and Alex Morono. Their 31 UFC wins aside, he shouldn't be the underdog to Jousset, who has only proven basic grappling skills to this stage. His +126 moneyline will earn a wager from me when this line stops growing.
DFS Verdict
- In plain sight, Kenan ($15) has big-time fantasy upside. He's posted a knockdown in three of his last four fights. Jousset's poor striking D is ripe for another.
JunYong Park vs. Andre Muniz
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JunYong Park | -180 | $17 | 5' 10" | 73" | 1.28 | 4.20 |
Andre Muniz | +146 | $13 | 6' 1" | 78" | 0.14 | 2.99 |
I feel badly that JunYong Park has now had not one -- but two -- appearances in Asia canceled this year. Just let the man fight on his home continent, people!
While doing my best to scrub off bias, Park has been one of my most profitable fighters since starting content for FanDuel in 2020. It's not really been difficult; he's 6-1 in that time with the only loss coming in a firefight against Gregory Rodrigues (5-3 UFC) where he also had "Robocop" on skates at one point. Park is extremely well-rounded; he's cleared grapplers with his +1.20 SSR and excellent pace (9.68 significant strikes attempted per minute), and he's defeated strikers plenty recently with three straight wins via submission entering this one.
Yet, the UFC handed him another fairly one-dimensional opponent here. Submission specialist Andre Muniz (+0.14 SSR) has never had the best hands, but he won his first six UFC fights with four submissions and still averages 1.50 sub attempts per 15. However, Muniz's rise into the rankings has come with a new challenge. Behind a poor 35% takedown D, he's been taken down and finished in consecutive fights by Brendan Allen and Paul Craig.
Muniz's blessing in disguise here might be Park keeping the usual approach of a Muniz opponent with striking skills -- staying on the feet. If Muniz is the only one hunting takedowns, he's done so incredibly well, posting 2.97 takedowns per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy. Park's 69% takedown D -- especially given his lower level of competition -- is far from bullet-proof. Plus, Muniz's size for this division at 6'1" is exceptional, and he'll have a five-inch reach advantage.
Park's three-fight win streak has come over fighters a combined 4-9 with UFC, and this is his first ranked fight. I love the "Iron Turtle" as much as anyone, but I think it's time to hop off the train until we see it at a high level.
Betting Verdict
- My model has Muniz as 44.5% likely to win this fight, and this is a classic zig-zag spot. Park's beaten three straight poor foes as Muniz has dropped two ranked battles. Muniz submitted Eryk Anders; Park barely survived a decision against him. I like "Sergipano" to win this one even more than my model.
- I've got this fight at 47.3% likely to see its full distance, so I've got a slight lean to a decision outcome, but FanDuel's +170 odds seem largely appropriate.
DFS Verdict
- We've discussed several heavy favorites with others to come. Needing DFS value in the worst way, Muniz's $13 salary is low if his odds are indeed undervalued, and he's got obvious submission upside.
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nasrat Haqparast | -200 | $18 | 5' 10" | 72" | 0.47 | 3.57 |
Jamie Mullarkey | +160 | $12 | 6' 0" | 74" | 0.05 | 3.69 |
I'm not sure I've got a worse feel for a fight on this card than these two inconsistent lightweights.
Nasrat Haqparast has been around significantly longer, so I understand his placement as a favorite. His exact ranking is just tough to pin down. Since the COVID break in 2020, Haparast's four wins have come over opponents who are 6-9 with UFC and suffered decisive losses to Bobby Green and Dan Hooker in the same time period. He's crushed the cans but hasn't broken through for a signature victory.
Jamie Mullarkey is basically in that same boat. He's 5-2 in his last seven appearances with both losses aging like fine wine to ranked 155er Jalin Turner and soon-to-be ranked 145er Muhammad Naimov (2-0 UFC). Yet, the five triumphs have come over opponents with a 6-13 overall record since the COVID break. It makes it very difficult to assess a level to either.
I'd follow the SSRs and give the Haqparast (+0.48) the slight edge on the feet over Mullarkey (+0.05) -- especially when Nasrat is defending 64% of incoming significant strikes. However, whatever edge you'd give him also should be given to Mullarkey as a wrestler, averaging 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent 34% accuracy.
Overall, my conclusion here is that Nasrat is overvalued. Against John Makdessi as a mutual opponent, Haqparast had a -9 striking differential when Mullarkey's was +5. However, the real concern for me was Dan Hooker landing three takedowns (on seven attempts) and over seven minutes of control on Haqparast. Hooker's a better overall fighter than Mullarkey, but he's not a better wrestler.
Moreover, Nasrat's last win inside the full distance -- even when facing newcomers three times since -- came in 2019. He's a hard guy to lay -200 behind in a fight headed the distance.
Betting Verdict
- Fighting slightly better competition and with the grappling upside, my model has Mullarkey at -140 to win. That might be malarkey in its own right, but the general thesis that Haqparast is overvalued remains extremely valid.
- Unsurprisingly, my model has these two scorecard-finding regulars at 81.6% to go the distance. That's even further justification to avoid the favorite.
DFS Verdict
- Going the distance, I do prefer to side with the underdog at $12. Haqparast's $18 salary isn't high enough that he can't be worth his value in a decision; it'll just be extremely difficult.
Sumudaerji vs. Tim Elliott
Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sumudaerji | +110 | $16 | 5' 8" | 72" | 2.08 | 3.23 |
Tim Elliott | -134 | $15 | 5' 7" | 66" | 0.74 | 3.87 |
The more this fight changed for Sumudaerji, the more things stayed the same.
The Chinese striker will still have a noted advantage on the feet in this one -- just as he did in his previous matchup against Allan Nascimento before Nascimento's withdrawal. There really aren't many 125ers that can match his reach (72") and efficiency (+2.08 SSR) at distance.
Sumudaerji seemed destined for title contention when knocking out Malcolm Gordon, dusting Zarrukh Adashev, and knocking down Matt Schnell in the first round of his last fight. However, the tide turned when Schnell was able to recover and get to his grappling, landing two takedowns and finding the submission in a wild second round last July. That's been a common theme for "The Tibetan Eagle" with a mediocre 66% takedown D and both UFC losses coming via sub.
With Nascimento out, enter Tim Elliott in his place to fulfill the "grappler" role of this striker vs. grappler affair. Elliott, the awkward, 19-fight UFC veteran, was inches from the marquee win he's been hoping for in October. He was up two rounds on undefeated prospect Mohammad Mokaev before Mokaev was able to secure a third-round submission. Elliott isn't uncomfortable on the ground, landing 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 47% accuracy -- and 1.0 submission attempts per 15. Craftier grapplers like Mokaev have been the issue; he's been submitted four times with the promotion.
Sumudaerji's lack of submission danger -- or really knowledge at all on the ground -- had to give Elliott the confidence to take this fight on short notice. The one feather in Tim's cap has always been a plus 56% striking D and a chin that's never suffered a UFC knockout.
If that holds through this fight, I'd be pretty stunned if Elliott didn't either coast to a decision through his wrestling or find an early finish on the mat.
Betting Verdict
- It may be surprising to many to see Elliott a -134 favorite on such short notice, but coming off what I estimated to be one of the best performances in his career despite the loss, he's got an obvious path to get this fight to the ground and win it.
- If I get burned by the legendarily durable flyweight's first career loss by KO, so be it.
DFS Verdict
- Schnell's win last July was at a rampant pace that Elliott (3.87 FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses) has always looked to maintain. He's got a monstrous ceiling for multiple early takedowns and a win via submission.
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Anthony Smith
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Khalil Rountree Jr. | -210 | $19 | 6' 1" | 76" | -0.43 | 2.27 |
Anthony Smith | +168 | $11 | 6' 4" | 76" | -1.29 | 2.34 |
I'm beside myself for having to do what's so obvious in this one.
I've been selling Anthony Smith since his somewhat-fortunate run to a 205-pound title shot, and a 5-4 record since that bout with Jon Jones doesn't mean it's always been the wrong call. Smith's -1.29 SSR comes with very little wrestling and a sub-50% striking and takedown defense. However, there's really one thing that's yet to fail him -- his chin.
While "TKO" is on his record twice in this stretch, once was an unfortunate broken leg for "Lionheart", and the other was an exhaustion-related finish by Glover Teixeira in the fifth round. Smith's upside has come through three submissions in this stretch -- and a leg injury in the other direction against Jimmy Crute (5-4-1 UFC).
With that in mind, I'm intrigued by anyone who could withstand the power of Khalil Rountree Jr.; that's really all Rountree's shown in UFC. His 3.02% knockdown rate is the highest I've plugged into my model in quite some time, but he's had a -0.43 SSR and fight-losing 56% takedown defense should the knockout blow not come.
Rountree has a horrendous -98 striking differential in his last three fights without a knockdown, and he'd be 0-3 if not for one of the worst decisions in UFC history against Dustin Jacoby.
Intriguingly, Rountree hasn't faced a fighter averaging north of 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes in his last eight fights. The UFC has largely kept him away from those matchups because he's such a poor grappler. Now in the rankings, he doesn't have a choice.
At 35 with plenty of fight miles, there's a chance "Lionheart" is done for good and becomes the latest victim of the power striker. However, if his notoriously good chin has one last ride, Smith has the skills to take down and submit Rountree quickly -- just as he did Devin Clark in 2020.
Betting Verdict
- I'm shaky about my model's prognostication on some of these bouts, but not this one. I've got Smith as a -125 favorite on the basis of his durability, grappling upside, and significantly tougher recent level of competition. This line is buying into Rountree's recent knockout binge against three shaky chins.
- Curiously, Rountree has a 40% decision rate in his last five, and Smith has consecutive results seeing all 15 minutes. While still favoring an early finish 65.4% of the time in this one, I don't think it's nearly the slam dunk the -430 odds on FanDuel indicate.
DFS Verdict
- Smith ($11) is a risky value play, but the odds this fight ends early speak for themselves when he's 37.3% implied to win it -- and has an obvious path to do so.
Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez
Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event
Fighter | Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | FanDuel Salary | Height | Reach | Striking Success Rate (SSR) | FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Song Yadong | -385 | $23 | 5' 8" | 67" | 0.84 | 3.04 |
Chris Gutierrez | +290 | $14 | 5' 9" | 67" | 2.31 | 3.19 |
While this isn't really a matchup to tell us a lot about Song Yadong, it is dangerous for him.
In his last fight, Yadong's takedown defense passed the hardest test this side of Merab at 135 pounds when he stopped seven of nine from Ricky Simon (9-3 UFC) to eventually break the wrestler and finish him in the fifth round. The "Kung Fu Kid" is a fan favorite behind his substantial power (1.08% knockdown rate) and willingness to strike. However, the 26-year-old has yet to stamp that truly signature win.
Cory Sandhagen obliterated Yadong for a -40 striking differential two fights ago, and there was definitely controversy around his win over Marlon "Chito" Vera in 2020. I do like him; his +0.84 SSR is overall efficient, and his takedown accuracy (55%) and defense (72%) likely indicate his grappling skills are better than what he's been willing to show.
He'll need them against one of bantamweight's best strikers, Chris Gutierrez. Since 2018, "El Guapo" had been fighting (and winning) a ton of unranked bantamweight bouts, yet he joined the rankings with a knockout of former 145-pound champion Frankie Edgar in 2022. Since, he posted a +17 striking differential in a tight loss to Pedro Munhoz, and he dismantled Alatengheili (+62 striking differential) in October.
Gutierrez's striking profile is perfect. He combines a +2.31 SSR with elite striking accuracy (57%) and defense (65%). Without exaggeration, we've never seen him post a negative distance striking differential in UFC, and his solid takedown D (71%) has kept most in his torture chamber.
This betting line is just a reflection of the surging young gun against the veteran whose ceiling might not be quite as high. Still, I just can't fathom what it looks like to see Gutierrez overwhelmed at distance. Munhoz dropped him, and Yadong has power, but it would be one shot that made the difference in lieu of a 25-minute beating.
I understand Yadong's placement as the favorite, yet outside of the Sandhagen disaster, these competition levels are equal, and Gutierrez has been the better striker. Yadong will have to (and definitely could) impose his grappling for the first time in UFC, but that's a dicey proposition at -385.
Betting Verdict
- My model has Gutierrez at -135 to win this fight as a +290 underdog. It's not perfect, but it does encapsulate that Gutierrez is 85.2% likely to win the distance striking differential, so Yadong's power or grappling will have to be the difference. At cost, I just don't like that for Song.
- Intriguingly, the model has this five-rounder at just 49.7% to go the full distance. Yadong's recent finishes (for and against) both came at the end of the fourth round or later, which is definitely swinging this mark if those fights had been able to go slightly longer to the full duration.
- As a result, the model has Gutierrez at +220 to win by decision. It's +550 on FanDuel. It'll be my only bet of the fight -- as sub-one-unit wager, too.
DFS Verdict
- A five-rounder with length between strikers makes both floors pretty high. Yadong ($23) almost exclusively has the finishing upside, but Gutierrez ($14) comes at a lower salary with the potential to win the striking exchanges and the fight. I'm not sure there's a wrong answer.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.