UFC Vegas 81: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs. Barboza, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

Emily Ducote vs. Ashley Yoder

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

The chasm between the haves and have-nots at women's strawweight is seen through Emily Ducote's strength of schedule.

Ducote dominated her UFC debut against 39-year-old Jessica Penne (6-6 UFC) but has since dropped consecutive bouts to ranked fighters in the division, Angela Hill and Loopy Godinez. Though her -1.74 striking success rate (SSR) seems pretty poor, she's got plus marks in striking accuracy (46%) and defense (54%) with an excellent 90% takedown defense. Ducote's pace is also excellent, attempting 14.43 significant strikes per minute.

On the other side here is Ashley Yoder, a strawweight from a previous era with a 3-7 record. Yoder's three wins have come over opponents that went 4-10 at this entry level of the promotion. "The Spider Monkey" is a grappler by trade, landing 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes even if her 30% accuracy on all attempts leaves a lot to be desired.

Yoder's -0.68 SSR is actually doing her some justice -- and speaks to her tendency to work in the clinch. Her 39% striking accuracy and 47% striking D are both poor.

Ducote is a sizable favorite here for good reason. Against better grapplers like Penne and Godinez, she has stuffed nearly every takedown, but "Gordinha" also has four regional wins by submission, so she knows what she's doing.

Most might be trepidatious around such a wide line outside the rankings of this odd division, but Ducote's established herself on the plane of legitimate contenders. Yoder isn't one of those.

Betting Verdict

• Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't. Ducote has gone the distance in all three bouts, but this is a massive step back in competition. Her inside-the-distance (ITD) prop at +330 seems like great value given the moneyline.

DFS Verdict

• The favorites on this card are extremely shaky, so I'm not even placing Ducote ($19) out of the mix at MVP with such solid win equity and a pace proven to score fantasy points.

Chris Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Chris Gutierrez's fight last week fell through, so he'll meet Alatengheili on this card after the latter stepped up on short notice to meet the ranked bantamweight.

"El Guapo" Gutierrez has already compiled ranked UFC wins, so he's the heavy favorite here for good reason. He sent Frankie Edgar into the shadow realm in the former champion's retirement fight, and Gutierrez lost a decision with a +17 striking differential against Pedro Munhoz in his last bout. Gutierrez is solely a striker with excellent striking accuracy (58%) and defense (64%) marks, and his 74% takedown D has largely kept the fight where he can win it.

Alatengheili, in my opinion, isn't ready for this test. He had just a +10 striking differential to clear Chad Anheliger (1-1 UFC), and he used a knockout of Kevin Croom (0-3 UFC) to add to a highlight reel that fans enjoy. However, I'll most notably remember him on the wrong end of a -63 striking differential against Casey Kenney (6-4 UFC), who has yet to find the rankings himself.

At his competition level, Alatengheili has amassed 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent 39% accuracy, and that's the path to this being competitive. Still, against Anheliger's 47% takedown D, Alatengheili converted just two attempts. I can't see him getting Gutierrez to the ground with regularity to stop the onslaught of the favorite's patented leg kicks and power rights.

Betting Verdict

• Gutierrez would be a "survivor pool" type of lock as a favorite. At his competition level, he's amassed a +1.99 SSR and knocked out Danaa Batgarel, who went all 15 minutes with the underdog.
• With that said, Gutierrez has gone to a decision in five of his seven wins when Alatengheili hasn't been finished in six UFC starts with a 61% striking D. I actually like a play at Gutierrez's decision prop (-135), correlating well with the over.

DFS Verdict

• Looking at the broader landscape of the slate, Alatengheili ($11) is far more valuable than Gutierrez in this world due to opportunity cost. If I'm projecting a decision, I need him to access more dominant favorites than Chris.

Melissa Dixon vs. Irina Alekseeva

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Betting lines like these that make no sense to me usually burn me, but consider me puzzled by Melissa Dixon's standing as a favorite in her UFC debut.

Dixon doesn't have an appearance against a UFC fighter past or present, but "future" could be the case when the aforementioned Darya Zheleznyakova was offered to fight Tainara Lisboa before withdrawing. The Englishwoman, Dixon, went 5-4 as an amateur before amassing a 5-0 record -- three wins by early stoppage -- against expectedly dreadful competition with Ares FC.

I suppose oddsmakers are selling the UFC debut of Irina Alekseeva. I'll admit that Alekseeva's first-round kneebar of Stephanie Egger (3-3 UFC) might have more to do with Egger's lack of jiu-jitsu acumen than anything else, but that's an advanced submission for a debutant. She also left the fight with a +4.12 SSR against a woman with plenty of UFC success in her own right. While I can poke holes in Egger, she's won quite a bit.

"Russian Ronda" looked the part in her debut, and she also has a win in Bellator (the United States' second-largest MMA promotion) to her name. I'd have expected a difficult decision to pay a favored moneyline to back her here against a debutant, but coming back at +122, this was a no-brainer. I'm taking the proven commodity at plus money.

Betting Verdict

• Frankly, Alekseeva shouldn't be the underdog here win or lose. Experience is valuable, and she graded out with solid efficiency in her debut.
• The best bet in this fight might be under 2.5 rounds (+112) when Alekseeva averages 6.9 submission attempts per 15. Her submission prop (+500) is wildly distant to me.

DFS Verdict

• There's no doubt that "Russian Ronda" is a core play for me at $15. She showed first-round upside in her debut, and there's a non-zero chance that Dixon isn't a UFC-caliber fighter.

Terrance McKinney vs. Brendon Marotte

Lightweight (155 pounds)

If last week's Drew Dober-Ricky Glenn clash wasn't bad enough, this absolute monstrosity shouldn't be sanctioned.

Terrance McKinney isn't just a four-time UFC winner, but he's a violent finisher with all four triumphs coming inside the first round. McKinney has a +1.52 SSR and just held Mike Breeden to one (1) significant strike landed before an 85-second knockout, and he's also won twice via submission with 1.0 attempts per 15 minutes.

With plenty of certainty, I don't believe Brendon Marotte to be a UFC-caliber fighter. Marotte's last win -- supposedly his best test to date -- was a first-round submission of an 11-21 regional fighter. Now, he'll have to deal with McKinney, who has gone toe-to-toe with ranked fighters in one of UFC's deepest divisions.

This is a late-notice bout, and the UFC must believe Marotte can win at a lower level of competition, but this particular matchup seems fairly pointless for the favorite. Some may point to McKinney's 45% striking defense and historically questionable gas tank as a path for the underdog, but that's come at a significantly higher competition level than this.

McKinney is -190 to win inside the first round and keep his streak intact. I'm not the one to tell you why it wouldn't happen.

Betting Verdict

• I don't even think I can get the action I desire on this fight when McKinney -- well-versed in both knockouts and submissions -- has such a short round-one number.
  • If you're a believer in superstition, McKinney's fights have alternated knockout or submission results in all eight bouts. Coming off a knockout, he's due for a submission, I suppose.
• Under 1.5 rounds here is -380. I don't want a stake in this fight should it get past that point anyway.

DFS Verdict

• McKinney is the obvious top choice at MVP with 65.5% implied odds to collect at least 100 FanDuel points in the first round. The "L" word is dangerously close to appropriate for yours truly.

Tainara Lisboa vs. Ravena Oliveira

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

There's a premium behind the UFC experience of Tainara Lisboa in this one, but it's hard to not pick her to win this bout.

Lisboa submitted Jessica-Rose Clark (4-5 UFC) in the third round during her debut back in May, exiting that one with a +1.12 SSR. The former WMPF Muay Thai champion was expected to be a solid striking prospect, and her 50% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense both passed the test against a proven -- but mentally fading -- UFC winner.

As a former rival of Valentina Shevchenko in Muay Thai waters, Lisboa is getting pretty preferential treatment from the promotion. She was originally scheduled to face a newcomer (Dariya Zheleznyakova) and picked up another (Ravena Oliveira) with this rescheduling.

Oliveira is a tough read for me without a UFC appearance from any of her eight professional foes, but her level of competition entering this one is pretty poor. Her last two opponents are just a combined 8-8 professionally, and she's only 26 years old herself.

Women's 135 is one of the toughest divisions for the UFC to source talent, so they probably had a difficult time finding a replacement here. You'd have to peg the Muay Thai experience of Lisboa to win out on the feet, and Oliveira's only pro loss came via submission, which "Thai Panther" showed to be capable of replicating in her debut.

Betting Verdict

• A dart at Lisboa's inside-the-distance prop (-110) could be worthwhile when she's finished a better foe, and she was particularly aggressive to end things before the final horn.
• The inexperienced Oliveira has never seen the judge's scorecards, so under 2.5 rounds (-136) is a slightly higher price to pay if you'd rather hedge against her potential power and/or an injury.

DFS Verdict

• Like Ducote earlier, I'm fairly in on the contrarian MVP candidates from the women's divisions. Lisboa ($20) should be far more popular than Emily, but it's still not a place many tend to target when both are live for a finish.

TJ Brown vs. Darren Elkins

Featherweight (145 pounds)

These two UFC veterans were the first chance to run my model on the card, and it's forecasting a decently competitive fight. I concur.

TJ Brown is the fighter in his prime here, so I understand his placement as the favorite. I'm just a bit skeptical of his overall ability. Brown's four wins have come over foes a combined 6-12-1 in their UFC-affiliated appearances, so Darren Elkins would be -- by far -- the best win for him to date given his 17-11 record dating back to 2010.

It's not like Brown has passed with flying colors, either. Namely, his 48% striking defense and 36% takedown defense are massive concerns, but the wrestler has managed to mount a +0.49 SSR through solid control of his opponents. Elkins is a tough matchup for wrestlers historically, but we'll see what "The Damage" has left at 39 years old.

Elkins' best weapon is his cardio. As a poor striker, he's averaging 8.03 takedown attempts per 15 minutes -- a pace that's broken lesser men. At a higher level of competition to this point, Elkins' 58% takedown D and 51% striking D are also significantly higher than Brown's, which could be useful in a firefight.

There are definite concerns that Darren gets flattened as he did by Cub Swanson in 2021. However, Brown has yet to land a UFC knockdown, and that's not particularly his game. I actually see a potential result closer to Elkins' 2021 fight with wrestler Darrick Minner where Minner -- winning the fight and mounting three submission attempts -- simply melted to the veteran's legendary pace.

Given a tight projection, I like the plus money here.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Brown at 51.3% likely to win this bout when factoring in age and recent form, but that still provides plenty of value behind Elkins' 39.4% implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
• This fight is 64.9% likely to go the distance, and when Elkins survived Jonathan Pearce's violent onslaught to see the final horn, I'm not sure what a wrestler like Brown could do to get him out of there.

DFS Verdict

• The elevated odds this one sees all 15 minutes should trend us toward the dog anyway, but there's also a super realistic path that Elkins ($12) can win the fight by melting Brown -- as he has plenty of others.

Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

You'd think this showdown of bantamweight's top-two prospects might have opened next week's pay-per-view, but it'll be an insanely good opener on this week's Apex main card.

Christian Rodriguez snatched all the hype from 18-year-old Raul Rojas Jr. as a +210 underdog earlier this year in Miami, but the result made plenty of sense in hindsight. On short notice, Rodriguez survived his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce (6-1 UFC) at featherweight, and he followed that with a first-round finish of Josh Weems (0-1 UFC) before facing Rojas.

He'll have to derail another hype train here. Cameron Saaiman is a training partner of Dricus du Plessis in South Africa, and he's put together a 3-0 start with the promotion at just 22 years old. The three opponents he's faced are just 2-3 in fights not facing Saaiman, so there are definitely questions about his level of competition, but he's torched the foes for a +2.93 SSR and added a submission win in his last bout.

Intriguingly, both of these guys could conceivably win in a rout. Saaiman's 41% takedown defense has been a massive concern even if showed ground skills in his last bout, and Rodriguez (60% takedown accuracy) would probably prefer to work there. On the flip side, Rodriguez had just a 31% striking defense against Weems, and Saaiman's lethal efficiency has wilted more confident strikers.

There are smart arguments on both sides of this one, but I prefer the South African when his striking style will be more impactful on the judges' cards, and he's shown enough grappling acumen to realistically deny Rodriguez's finishing potential in that domain.

Betting Verdict

• It's so tough to be confident in a pick here with such small samples on young, raw prospects, but the +130 odds on Saaiman are pretty tempting for the aforementioned reasons.
• Of the eight combined UFC-affiliated appearances between these two, seven of them have started Round 3. I project a longer fight here with over 2.5 rounds sitting at -180.
  • This is the toughest opponent at 135 pounds to date for both without much argument, too.
  • It's worth noting Rodriguez also missed weight Friday, which might influence the outcome of this fight late should his conditioning be compromised.

DFS Verdict

• I could Rodriguez ($16) scoring plenty of points with takedowns, and I could see Saaiman ($14) piling on strikes to his usual standard. I wouldn't be surprised if both scored well in a 15-minute affair.

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Petroski

Middleweight (185 pounds)

An intriguing middleweight debut for Michel Pereira got even more intriguing here.

He initially had striker Marc-Andre Barriault in his sights, but grappling ace Andre Petroski will step in on short notice and put his 5-0 UFC record on the line. Pereira always struggled to make welterweight (170) with his huge 6'1" frame, so this move was inevitable. No one should write off "Demolidor" from a run toward the belt.

He found the rankings at 170 pounds with key wins over Khaos Williams, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Niko Price. Pereira put to bed early-career shenanigans with a +1.31 SSR in the division and showed to be well-rounded to also average 1.58 takedowns and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. There is truly one stat that matters for him this weekend -- his 94% takedown defense.

If that holds, Petroski will be in deep trouble. He barely survived a -19 striking differential against aging grappler Gerald Meerschaert to earn a fortuitous decision, and his distance striking accuracy was a woeful 39% against one of middleweight's worst strikers. He just can't do it, and even worse, all the missing badly compromised his energy.

Nonetheless, Andre has posted 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with an excellent 54% accuracy. He hasn't needed to strike in most matchups. Meerschaert defended three of five attempts from him, which was incredibly telling when GM3's lifetime 34% takedown D is infamously terrible.

My consensus is that the undefeated Petroski has crushed cans to maintain his perfect record. Before GM3, his opponents had a combined 6-12 UFC record. Pereira is a ranked fighter at 170 pounds, so if his size and physicality are able to hold up at 185, he likely demolishes Petroski in short order.

Betting Verdict

• Pereira has surged from a -134 favorite on Monday to -210 on Friday. Sharps are aligned on "Demolidor" being the more skilled fighter. I agree despite not wagering on the moneyline and having missed the best of the number.
  • If anything, Pereira's first-round knockout prop (+380) is intriguing given the mammoth gap in striking prowess.
• This fight is +140 to go the distance. Petroski's competition level is too poor to run my model, but I'm projecting a short fight here where Petroski either overwhelms Pereira with his size or gets destroyed failing to do so.

DFS Verdict

• There are enough alternatives to not turn toward Pereira ($18) at MVP in case his strength just doesn't pass a middleweight standard, but he'll have a fantasy-friendly outcome if it does.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yañez

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

This fight is about a coin flip via moneylines, and it's about a coin flip (+108) to see over 2.5 rounds. Plenty of outcomes could be viable here.

Jonathan Martinez is the slightest of favorites, and "Dragon" is coming off the most impressive win of his career, dispatching Said Nurmagomedov (6-2 UFC) by split decision in March. The early book on the striker (+0.82 SSR) was to take him down, but he defended six of Nurmagomedov's nine attempts. With plus marks in striking accuracy (49%) and defense (57%), Adrian Yañez is going to fight him in his preferred domain.

Yañez has never attempted a UFC takedown, and the boxer hasn't really needed to. He used a +0.86 SSR and insane 2.07% knockdown rate to vanquish six straight foes to begin his career, but Yañez clearly bit off more than he could chew with a ranked matchup against Rob Font and was knocked out in the first round back in May. Yañez's 40% striking accuracy isn't great, and it's especially worrisome when his competition before Font was just 11-17-1 overall with UFC.

However, Adrian's 59% striking defense is solid, and he attempts 16.88 significant strikes per minute to Martinez's 9.45. His pace could absolutely win him the fight without any seminal moments, but I see this as a matchup between two plus strikers analytically, and it's hard not to favor Martinez with that the case.

Yañez has only beaten three multi-time UFC winners overall, yet Martinez has beaten four straight (and seven overall). That gap in experience could be the slightest difference if Adrian's power doesn't ultimately win out quickly.

Betting Verdict

• I prefer Martinez's moneyline without a strong inclination to bet it. In terms of a likely outcome, he's only offered one career submission attempt, so that does bring us down to a decision or a knockout.
• These two have been combined to be finished just twice in 19 appearances, but they've been finishers themselves in 8 of those 19. That produces the slightest lean for this fight to go the distance (+136).
  • My model has this fight going the full length 50.8% of the time.

DFS Verdict

• With few quality value options, the importance of the mid-range is only heightened. With that said, I've passed on both $16 fighters to this point, leaving Martinez ($16) as my one plug from that salary mark.

Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

I'm excited to see if my model's diagnosis on this fight is correct.

Jennifer Maia has won consecutive fights landing at least 109 significant strikes, so I wouldn't blame anyone for falling victim to recency bias and backing the favorite. Still, she's had this puzzling UFC career where she went the distance with former titleholder Valentina Shevchenko in 2020 but also has other lopsided, uglier losses to Katlyn Chookagian, Liz Carmouche, and Manon Fiorot near the top of this division.

However, Maia's analytical profile suggests an overperforming fighter. As a one-dimensional striker, she has a -0.28 SSR, and her 57% takedown D has been a significant concern at times. Shevchenko used five takedowns to dominate their bout, and despite the warts of the fading Vivi Araujo, she at least profiles to give that strategy another go.

Araujo lands 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes with a stellar 48% accuracy, and her only losses have aged pretty well. In hindsight, her most recent fight with Amanda Ribas (88% takedown defense) was a scheduled loss when Vivi struggled to a -0.82 SSR when she couldn't get that element going.

Frankly, Araujo is a strong analytical wrestler while Maia has struggled in that department historically. While you would assume Maia is the stronger striker, her -164 moneyline is a massive price to pay when it's not that substantial of an advantage, and Araujo is actually the one of the two with a career knockdown -- and, conceivably, more power.

Vivi is easily my favorite underdog on the entire card.

Betting Verdict

• My analytical model has Araujo at -156, and I really don't even disagree personally. She's shown enough durability and power on the feet to be competitive, and her wrestling could be a massive advantage.
• With the model also pegging this fight 92.8% likely to go the distance (which isn't wildly far off the -380 odds at FanDuel), Araujo's decision prop (+220) is my favorite value bet of the night.

DFS Verdict

• Win or lose, if Araujo simply survives the striking and gets to her wrestling at all, she'll completely deflate Maia's scoring equity in this area anyway. At $14, the underdog has to be the side.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza

Featherweight (145 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

While some may be disappointed with lower stakes in these Apex main events, it's also a chance to shine a light on some of the promotion's most unheralded stars. To me, Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza both fit that bill.

Yusuff's only UFC loss was a decision to Arnold Allen that likely goes his way in 2023 given the more defined scoring criteria. He had a +26 striking differential and a vast majority of the intent to damage while Allen focused on control. Yusuff's +1.64 SSR speaks to his acumen as a striker, and my lone question for him was answered in a short-notice bout with Don Shainis (0-2 UFC). Even with the drop in competition, "Super" Sodiq flashed his grappling skills with a guillotine choke found in just 30 seconds.

While he could turn to wrestling we've barely seen (0.18 takedowns per 15), I think it's more likely he gives the famed Brazilian striker, Barboza, the type of fight he desires. Barboza was among the elite names of a prior era at lightweight, but since dropping to featherweight, he's amassed a 3-3 record with notable wins over Billy Quarantillo and Shane Burgos -- both coming via violent knockouts.

Barboza's -0.12 SSR does come through bouts at the pinnacle of 155 -- namely decisive losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. Judging his striking prowess on that alone would be foolish, but Giga Chikadze (8-1 UFC) is barely hanging onto the rankings at 145 pounds and thoroughly dominated Barboza with a +27 striking differential and a third-round knockout.

I wish this fight was more complicated to break down, but my model views Yusuff as a better striker (and overall MMA fighter) than Chikadze, and Barboza really struggled in that fight. The -170 odds behind Super Sodiq don't seem very expensive with that context in tow.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Yusuff as approximately a -210 favorite in this bout, and that's giving weight to Barboza's lifetime numbers and sizable knockdown rate when he's a reduced version of himself.
  • It's most likely the outcome is a decision (+120 in the model), which is priced at +290 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Correlating with that, it sees the fight as 61.2% likely to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• Even in a decision, Yusuff ($21) has elite historical volume and has never been finished. I believe him to be a high-floor MVP candidate.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.