UFC Tampa Best Bets: Covington vs. Buckley

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley, taking place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley Betting Picks

Adrian Yañez vs. Daniel Marcos

Fight Ends by KO/TKO (-105)
Yañez by KO/TKO (+406)

This fight to end by knockout is my favorite bet on the card.

Adrian Yañez was once the hotshot, undefeated prospect moving toward the top 15 as Daniel Marcos now is, but he learned it gets tougher up here. Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez brutally KO'd the Houston native. He still has shown elite power (2.03 KD%) when the tide is turned in his favor.

However, Marcos is due for a knockout or two himself. The Pervian's +1.94 striking success rate (SSR) is awesome, and he's put enough power (0.83 KD%) out there to believe he can find the chin. Plus, Marcos' excellent low kicks could replicate Martinez's success against Yañez.

Yañez is a massive step up in competition from Marcos' combined opponents' 13-15 UFC record. Plus, he's powerful and a bit chinny. It's a perfect recipe for one of these strikers, both never having attempted a submission, to find a finish.

I've modeled this fight 68.0% likely to end by knockout, and 35.9% of the time (+180 implied), it's Yañez who finds the seminal blow. That leaves Marcos at +210 implied odds for a KO himself.

Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+130)
Silva to Win (+270)
Silva by KO/TKO/Submission (+650)

I get uncomfortable, wonky results from my model, but this takes the cake for December.

Most feel Manel Kape is a title challenger, but a unanimous loss to the now-cut Muhammad Mokaev (7-0 UFC) wasn't the statement he was looking for to face Alexandre Pantoja last week. Kape's inconsistencies making weight played a role in that, but I also think he's just a bit overrated. His +0.38 is far from special with minimal grappling offense.

Largely, he's hung his hat on a 1.34 KD% to produce signature moments in UFC. I find it interesting that Bruno Silva (2.72 KD%) has him outgunned in that department.

People keep writing off the 34-year-old Silva, but he hasn't written back. Silva finished Cody Durden in his last fight, which aged even better after Durden took 165 significant strikes without issue last week. "Bulldog" also has a win by submission on the ledger, and Kape has been subbed twice as a pro.

Between these two's power and Silva's submission upside, I'm well split from oddsmakers when expecting a finish 68.9% of the time in this one.

I'm showing massive value on the underdog, too. At 42.3% overall win odds, I expect the Brazilian to find a finish 37.2% of the time. I'd agree that it's probably finish-or-bust for "Bulldog".

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo Wins After Round 1 (+106)

Billy Quarantillo might truly be the man this card is built around -- but he couldn't be the main event on a 2-3 skid.

The Tampa native has run into three ranked or fringe-ranked fighters in this stretch, but I love this matchup as a fight fan between him and Cub Swanson. This one is "Austin's Fight of the Night" for certain as both combatants average over 9.00 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes. Billy Q's average (13.14) is like a video game.

Quarantillo is a mounting storm, using his pace and cardio as a weapon. He just doesn't have much power (0.22 KD%). Swanson also hasn't been submitted since 2018.

At 41 years old, I'm just not sure Cub has the firepower to keep up. He hasn't landed over 80 significant strikes since 2018. Therefore, it's going to be hard to win on the cards or without a knockout, and Quarantillo has been KO'd just twice in 24 pro appearances. An old Cub? Doubtful.

I've got Quarantillo as 58.4% likely to win this fight, and I've got it 50.1% likely to see the full distance. There should be length.

While I'm not showing value on Billy outright, I think I can by unloading a Round 1 finish -- one he's never scored in UFC. You can build this through FanDuel's new UFC Same Game Parlay feature with Quarantillo Moneyline (-164) and Fight to Start Round 2 (-410).

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

Covington Wins in Round 4, 5, or by Points (+320)

I find Colby Covington's return on short notice this weekend fascinating.

Is it a money grab? Does he love this matchup? I'm not sure, but Covington's "title-fight-or-bust" era ended with a convincing loss to Leon Edwards last December. Not even his good friend, Dana White, can justify another egregious shot at 170-pound gold yet. The 36-year-old from Miami will have to dispatch Joaquin Buckley in his backyard to get there.

Buckley is a welterweight dark horse, winning all five appearances in the division so far after an up-and-down career at 185 pounds. I've always struggled with the favored prices on his mediocre striking (+0.93 SSR) because of a highlight knockout for the ages, but his recent addition of wrestling offense is interesting. He's up to 1.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.

In 2018, "New Mansa" Buckley was controlled for over 12 minutes by Bellator's Logan Storley in this same division. This fight hinges on the sole question of if Buckley's 69% takedown defense can stop the relentless advances of "Chaos", who averages 8.61 takedown attempts per 15 while converting a decent clip of them (44%).

If Covington can get the takedowns, he should dominate this fight, and he hasn't won before Round 4 since August 2016. If he can't, he probably loses outright to Buckley's striking offense as the +210 moneyline odds imply here.

I've modeled Covington as 40.0% likely to come out on top, so I'll take this dart that the veteran can replicate Storley's success years later.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.