UFC Picks and Predictions Today: UFC 330 Best Bets (Makhachev vs Garry)

Best Bets at a Glance

• Islam Makhachev by Points (+120)
• Kaue Fernandes Moneyline (+125)
• Mackenzie Dern by Points (+180)
• Ribovics-Barboza Over 1.5 Rounds (-115)

UFC 330 takes place Saturday night at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, with Islam Makhachev defending the welterweight championship against Ian Machado Garry in the main event.

The card also features Mackenzie Dern defending the women’s strawweight title against Gillian Robertson, plus several intriguing betting opportunities further down the card.

Instead of laying massive moneyline prices on favorites like Makhachev or Esteban Ribovics, there are better ways to attack Saturday’s card.

Here are my favorite UFC 330 bets.

All UFC betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

UFC 330 Makhachev vs Garry Predictions and Best Bets

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry: Makhachev by Points (+120)

Makhachev is approximately a -350 favorite on the moneyline, making it difficult to justify betting him straight. Taking him to win by points gives us a more playable number.

Makhachev is 28-1 professionally and has won 16 consecutive UFC fights. His first fight at welterweight couldn't have gone much better, either. He defeated Jack Della Maddalena by unanimous decision to claim the championship, landing four takedowns while holding Della Maddalena to only 18 significant strikes over five rounds.

The champion averages 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with 56.0% takedown accuracy, and he has been extremely difficult to hit cleanly, absorbing only 1.45 significant strikes per minute.

Machado Garry does at least possess some of the characteristics necessary to make Makhachev work. The challenger is 17-1 and owns 80.0% takedown defense while absorbing only 2.86 significant strikes per minute. At 6-foot-3 with a 74-inch reach, Garry will also have considerable size and length advantages over the 5-foot-10 Makhachev.

Garry's durability is the biggest reason I prefer the points rather than backing another Makhachev submission. Garry's only professional loss came by decision against Shavkat Rakhmonov, and he has never been finished.

Makhachev should still be able to dictate where the fight takes place, but Garry is defensively responsible enough to survive long stretches without putting himself in unnecessary danger.

That makes five rounds of Makhachev controlling the fight the most appealing way to bet the champion.

Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes: Fernandes Moneyline (+125)

Kaue Fernandes is my favorite underdog on the UFC 330 card.

Jalin Turner remains one of the most physically intimidating lightweights in the UFC at 6-foot-3 with a 77-inch reach, and he reminded everyone of his finishing ability by knocking out Edson Barboza in his most recent appearance.

But Fernandes has quietly built an impressive statistical profile. The Brazilian has won three consecutive UFC fights and is landing 4.28 significant strikes per minute with 55.0% accuracy. More importantly, opponents are landing only 1.42 significant strikes per minute against him, while Fernandes owns 62.0% significant-strike defense.

That is a massive contrast with Turner, who lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.54. Plus, Turner’s significant-strike defense sits at just 41.0%. His aggressive style creates plenty of opportunities to finish opponents, but it also leaves openings defensively.

Fernandes has already shown he can take advantage of those openings. He landed 79 significant strikes and scored two knockdowns in his decision victory over Guram Kutateladze before stopping Harry Hardwick with a first-round kick in his next appearance.

Turner's four-inch reach advantage is a legitimate concern, but Fernandes is the more defensively sound fighter and has enough power to punish Turner when he overextends.

At plus money, I'll take the ascending fighter.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson: Dern by Points (+180)

Two of the UFC's best women's grapplers meet for the strawweight championship, but I'm expecting this matchup to be considerably more competitive than Dern's moneyline odds suggests.

Robertson enters the title fight on an excellent run and averages 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has landed eight combined takedowns over her last three fights, including three against Amanda Lemos in her most recent victory.

Dern presents an entirely different problem on the mat.

Although Dern's wrestling has never been particularly efficient — she lands only 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes with 18.0% accuracy — getting Dern to the ground doesn't necessarily mean Robertson will have an advantage. Dern remains one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the division and is dangerous from virtually every grappling position.

That could make Robertson more selective about pursuing takedowns than usual.

Dern also has the more developed striking game. She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute compared to Robertson's 2.71.

The champion showed she can win a high-volume fight in her title-winning performance against Virna Jandiroba, landing 118 significant strikes over five rounds.

Robertson is difficult enough to control that I lean away from Dern’s ML, and Robertson’s grappling ability should also make a Dern submission harder to find.

A competitive fight that reaches the judges but ultimately favors Dern is my preferred outcome.

Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics: Over 1.5 Rounds (-118)

The moneyline is super lopsided in this fight — Ribovics is -650 — so instead, I'll attack the total.

Ribovics has developed into one of the UFC's highest-volume lightweights, landing approximately 7.24 significant strikes per minute. We've also seen him sustain that pace deep into fights.

He landed 156 significant strikes in his three-round battle with Daniel Zellhuber, 147 against Nasrat Haqparast and another 122 against Elves Brener.

Barboza is unquestionably on the back end of his career at 40 years old and enters Saturday on a three-fight losing streak. Most concerning was his most recent performance against Turner, who knocked him down twice and finished him in the opening round.

But Ribovics doesn't necessarily have to hunt an immediate knockout. The Argentine is comfortable building offense through volume, and four of his six UFC appearances have reached the third round.

Barboza also remains dangerous enough offensively that Ribovics should have some incentive to avoid turning the opening minutes into an unnecessary firefight. Barboza has 18 UFC victories and remains one of the promotion's most dangerous kickers.

I expect Ribovics' pressure and volume to eventually take over, but I think the fight will last at least 1.5 rounds.

UFC Betting FAQ

What is a moneyline bet in UFC?
A moneyline bet is a wager on which fighter will win the bout, regardless of method or round.

What does "win by KO/TKO" mean?
This prop bet requires your fighter to win via knockout or technical knockout. A submission or decision victory would not cash the wager.

How are UFC fights scored if they go the distance?
Three judges score each round using the 10-point must system. The fighter with the higher total score after all scheduled rounds wins by decision.

What factors should bettors consider before placing a UFC wager?
Recent form, striking and grappling matchups, cardio, reach advantages, injury history, and strength of competition are all important factors when evaluating a fight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.