UFC Paris Best Bets: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis, taking place at the Accor Arena in Paris, France on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Betting Picks

Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

Frevola to Win (+108)
Frevola by KO/TKO (+165)

Betting against Fares Ziam earlier this year didn't work out, but my model's theory was correct.

Ziam gave up 7 takedowns on 13 attempts to Claudio Puellas, but Puellas did so little with them that the judges still awarded "Smile Killer" the win. Averaging 2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, Matt Frevola has a clear and obvious path to victory if he can assert a bit more violence on the ground.

Violence shouldn't be an issue for the "Steamrolla." In fact, Frevola has lightweight's highest knockdown rate (2.33%) of any fighter with at least eight starts in the division. There's a pronounced knockout threat at distance here in addition to the wrestling tools that have given Ziam issues.

Ziam is 27 years old and firmly in the "improvement" window, but my model's verdict isn't close here even if we see better from him and a decline from the 34-year-old Frevola. I've modeled the American as 62.2% likely to win this bout, and it believes he finds the knockout 45.7% of the time.

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Allen to Win (+184)
Allen by Submission (+700)

This fight is hard for me to visualize as a fight fan, but I've got to trust my model's result when, on principle, Brendan Allen is a heck of a fighter to get at +184 against anyone.

"All In" still found a way to get six takedowns and a win in a five-round main event with Chris Curtis (5-3 UFC, 1 NC) where Curtis' 82% takedown defense was prone to give the grappler fits. Similarly, Nassourdine Imavov has a 74% success rate avoiding takedowns.

Imavov (+1.25 SSR) is a talented striker who should box up Allen at distance, but he's also not been a substantial power threat with one career knockdown to Allen's four. Allen also entered the Curtis fight off four straight wins by submission, and at 1.4 sub attempts per 15 minutes, the Louisiana native is one of middleweight's most potent grapplers.

While still favoring Imavov to win 52.6% of the time, the betting value in this fight lies with Allen. I've got Allen's likeliest path to victory (27.2% of the time) a fifth submission in six bouts, and that checks out with the fact he should struggle to win minutes at distance in this one.

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Saint Denis to Win in Rounds 1, 2, or 3 (-125)

The co-host of my weekly YouTube show also does a podcast with Renato Moicano, so needless to say, neither of them were too happy with me or my model this week.

While Moicano is one of UFC's most jovial, unique personalities, he's a pretty distant underdog to Benoit Saint Denis for a reason. Moicano was lucky to escape a UFC 300 bout with Jalin Turner where Turner's own showboating allowed him a path back into the fight. Beyond that, Moicano's +0 striking differential against Drew Dober and -61 differential against Rafael Dos Anjos haven't aged particularly well.

"Money" Moicano is now 34 years old, and he's used his grappling in each of his last seven wins. I just forecast a tough time for him to do that over 25 minutes when Saint Denis, as the younger athlete, attempts significantly more takedowns (12.86) and submissions (1.5) per 15 minutes.

This fight is in Saint Denis' home country, and if it devolves into a striking match, Benoit has already put out three foes by KO/TKO with a hefty 1.39% knockdown rate. Expecting the worst version of Moicano to date, I've modeled "The God of War" as 62.6% likely to find an early finish. I don't really want a piece of him in later rounds or on the cards since this is his first career five-rounder, dropping this well-formed bet into value range.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.