UFC Mexico Best Bets and Predictions: Moreno vs. Erceg

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg, taking place at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City on Saturday.

UFC Mexico Betting Picks

Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa

Costa to Win (+132)

Christian Rodriguez has to pick on someone his own size this weekend.

Four of Rodriguez's last six opponents have made a majority of their pro starts 135 pounds -- not 145 pounds like this bout like Melquizael Costa. That's largely not factored into my analytical model, furthering its case for Costa as a short 'dog here.

"Melky" busted up Andre Fili (12-11 UFC) for a +20 striking differential and first-round submission just last month in Seattle. Taking no damage, he steps in on short notice to face "CeeRod". Rodriguez's reputation for taking undefeated records claimed another in the form of ex-bantamweight Austin Bashi (13-1) last time out.

However, against featherweight, it hasn't gone well. He let up seven takedowns in what should have been a loss to Isaac Dulgarian, and Julian Erosa tapped him in the first round.

Both of those losses came in the grappling, and my model has Costa as 56.6% likely to win the distance striking differential. That's a good summary as to why Costa is 50.2% likely (-101 implied) to win, per the model.

Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara

Vergara by Points (+430)

This betting line is wacky.

Yes, Edgar Chairez has a huge jiu-jitsu advantage over CJ Vergara. The problem? Chairez doesn't wrestle to get this to the ground. In five UFC-affiliated starts, he's shot just two takedowns and landed neither of them.

If this fight is where Chairez historically prefers it, Vergara is probably winning. CJ has landed 5.10 significant strikes per minute with 56% accuracy and 53% defense from incoming ones. Those numbers are a significantly worse 3.45 per minute with accuracy figures of 45% and 42%, respectively, for Chairez.

Vergara's been submitted just once in UFC, and Tatsuro Taira (6-1 UFC) has finished three others on the mat. The Mexican favorite isn't close to the same ground fighter despite six regional wins via submission.

While my model has Chairez's submission prop (18.7%) respected, it believes this fight goes the distance 61.6% of the time. If it happens in the striking realm, CJ should win. I've got him 34.6% likely (+189 implied) to win on the cards.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Pyfer to Win Inside the Distance (+115)

Similar to Rodriguez, Kelvin Gastelum is being forced from the hammer to the nail at middleweight this weekend.

Gastelum's bad weight miss in his last fight at 170 pounds has prompted UFC to tell him it's 185 pounds or nowhere. Unfortunately, his latest date at middleweight has brought Joe Pyfer across the octagon. Pyfer will enjoy five inches of height and a four-inch edge in reach over Gastelum, which might still undersell how much larger he is than the undersized underdog.

"Bodybagz" Pyfer has fight-ending tendencies, including a huge 1.56% knockdown rate and 0.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Since the COVID break, Gastelum has been submitted by both fighters averaging north of 0.25 submission attempts per 15 that he's faced, and his takedown D (59%) should go from bad to worse in a heavier division.

My model is leaning knockout (33.7%) over submission (17.1%) for Pyfer, but because of Gastelum's historical durability, it's a steal to get this line at plus money. I've got him -103 implied to finish the fight.

It doesn't hurt that Pyfer's teammate, Sean Brady, subbed Gastelum in 2023.

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

Torres in Round 1 or 2 (+130)

If you missed the moneyline boat on Manuel Torres, this is a great shortcut.

My model might be a bit direct to put Torres' decision equity at 0.0%, but he's never won outside the first round as a pro. That probably doesn't translate to a full 15 minutes -- as the -360 odds this fight doesn't start Round 3 indicate.

"El Loco" is one of the best hammers in the lightweight division with a superb 3.16% knockdown rate and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Unfortunately, Drew Dober is becoming one of the more predictable nails, losing either the fight or the distance striking differential in seven of his last nine bouts.

Dober's striking (51%) and takedown (56%) defense are poor, and his longtime durability has waned. He's been stopped in three of his last five Ls.

The Coloradan will draw support from bettors as the more experienced fighter -- especially late in fights. I just don't think he can survive the Mexican's patented onslaught when I'm forecasting Torres to win inside the distance 63.9% of the time.

If this fight reaches the third round, I'm not sure you want a Torres ticket of any kind, so take the plus money in this market.

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

Fight Goes the Distance (-215)
Erceg by Points (+290)

This weekend's main event is favored to go the distance, but I don't think it's nearly high enough.

Steve Erceg was just knocked out in the first 250 seconds by Kai Kara-France in his last fight, scaring some bettors away from this over. However, Kara-France's knockdown rate (1.19%) is the best in the flyweight rankings and stomps either of these guys' identical 0.35% marks.

Brandon Moreno has been the distance in five of his last seven five-round fights. Erceg, similarly, went the distance in his only one. That matters because fighters will hold off on throwing too many fastballs to conserve energy, and that should reduce the already limited punching power at hand.

Neither fighter has been submitted in 22 combined UFC appearances, either.

I've got this fight 71.0% likely (-245 implied) to go its entire distance. That'll be my main wager here, but modeling Erceg to win the decision 32.8% of the time compared to hometown hero's 38.2%, he seems undervalued to be the fighter to come out ahead.

It's difficult to expect Mexico's most popular fighter to not receive the nod if it's close, but Moreno did fail to get the split decision against Brandon Royval (7-3 UFC) during UFC's last trip to Mexico City.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.