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UFC Macau Best Bets and Predictions: Yan vs. Figueiredo

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UFC Macau Best Bets and Predictions: Yan vs. Figueiredo

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo, taking place at the Galaxy Arena in Macau, China on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo Betting Picks

Maheshate vs. Nikolas Motta

Motta to Win (+156)

This fight will start this card around 3:00 a.m. EST, so I hope you've got coffee ready if you're approaching this one live.

A lightweight opener between Mahashate and Nikolas Motta is an interesting starter when I see the two as similar, one-dimensional fighters. Motta's -1.70 striking success rate (SSR) is slightly better than Maheshate's (-1.86) in a fight that should be conducted largely at distance, but that's not the only reason to pick him.

First, "Iron" Motta has a substantially higher knockdown rate (1.55%) than Maheshate (0.95%), and the latter's only official UFC knockout came against Steve Garcia, who now fights at 145 pounds rather than 155. Secondarily, Maheshate's 28% striking accuracy is worst in the division of model-eligible fighters. He simply misses a great deal even if Motta (33%) is pretty poor in that area, too.

Factoring in age and experience, I've got Motta was 45.8% likely (+120 implied) to win this bout. I'd set the odds much closer than this when both are generally unreliable.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg by KO/TKO (+150)

Carlos Ulberg has ended six of his nine UFC-affiliated appearances by knockout, so it's no surprise to see it the favored individual outcome in this one. I just don't think the odds he wins this rock 'em, sock 'em duel are high enough.

"No Time" is Volkan Oezdemir's nickname, but his last result was actually quite stunning. Oezedmir was the latest to knock out Johnny Walker, but it might say more about Walker, whose 44% striking D was ripe for a fourth career loss via (T)KO.

That was Oezdemir's first (T)KO since August 2019, and his knockdown rate (0.93%) is just really good rather than great. Ulberg's results are far better, amassing a 1.70% knockdown rate to this stage. "Black Jag" has also landed 2.62 more significant strikes per minute with 11% higher striking accuracy, increasing his overall chances.

Two excellent takedown Ds (above 75%) figure to set the stage for a 15-minute striking match, and Ulberg's volume, power, and lack of attrition are a huge advantage. Continuing to ride the meteor, I've got him 68.2% likely (-215 implied) to find a knockout in this one.

Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov

Kenan to Win (+156)

There aren't many underdogs native to China on this card, but Song Kenan qualifies. I'd certainly give him a chance here.

Kenan's 6-4 UFC record hasn't quite notched a win like one over Muslim Salikhov (7-4 UFC) yet, but Salikhov's best days are behind him at 40 years old. He's been knocked out in two of his last five fights, and Song's 1.05% knockdown rate is a plus mark at 170 pounds. Remember, Kenan dropped Ian Machado Garry, now in the top five at welterweight, in 2023.

I also see this as a "sell high" spot on the Russian after a questionable split decision win in July.

The grappling aspect of this fight could be negligible if Song's 72% takedown D holds, too. That probably works into his favor if forcing the older favorite to wrestle. I've got Salikhov projected for just 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes in this bout.

A majority of the time (modeled at 51.4%), I do still believe Salikhov outpoints Kenan -- as many have given a negative striking differential in four of his last five fights. However, at +156, I'm willing to back a friendly decision for the local guy while not sleeping on Kenan's power taking the judges out of the equation.

Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci

Ricci by Points (+240)

Some sportsbooks have "point spreads" for actual tallies on judges' scorecards. Tabatha Ricci has won or covered that literal spread in all seven strawweight appearances, so why are we assuming she gets routed in this three-round co-main event?

Most of Ricci's bouts are close, grimy fights that she wins by attempting 7.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing enough (38%) of those to squeak out the scorecards. Yan Xiaonan is a perfect candidate for that type of upset. Her 61% takedown D is mediocre after she ceded six (and two submission attempts) in a title fight with Weili Zhang back in April.

Zhang is better than Ricci, and the distance striking here isn't close. Xiaonan's +1.31 SSR should toy with Ricci (-0.67) at distance.

The problem? "Baby Shark" might be able to dictate this fight doesn't take place at distance and squeak out a pair of rounds.

I've got this fight modeled as 83.9% likely to see its full distance, so if you missed a +170 moneyline earlier this week with Ricci, this prop is a fine alternative to back the underdog with grappling upside.

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Fight Doesn't Go The Distance (+132)
Figueiredo to Win (+250)

Petr Yan hasn't seemed to lose many backers despite routinely not covering his betting line.

Yan closed as roughly a -435 favorite against Sean O'Malley and -285 favorite against Merab Dvalishvili, losing both fights. He was able to squeak out a decision against Song Yadong in his last fight carrying a -155 tag. We've really learned that, while talented and efficient, the Russian's 0.90% knockdown rate and rate of 0.10 submission attempts per 15 minutes create few moments to truly separate from elite bantamweights.

Deiveson Figueiredo is the polar opposite. For years, the former flyweight champion would give away minutes but get them back in earnest behind a 1.94% knockdown rare and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The adjustment to this new 135-pound weight class hasn't killed those marks, either. He dropped Chito Vera last time out and became the first man to submit Cody Garbrandt in April.

"Deus Da Guerra" has also never been stopped in his new weight class despite taking on ranked fighters and/or former champions in each fight.

Though the Russian favorite has never been finished in UFC, Figueiredo can win rounds with these moments. I've got this fight just 56.0% likely to start Round 4 compared to FanDuel's 73.7% implied odds, and I've got Figueiredo modeled as 48.6% likely to win with a fairly even split across knockout, submission, and decision.

This price feels irresponsible until Yan once again shows he can win in convincing fashion, and violence in Figgy's first five-round bout at bantamweight seems like a decent wager to encapsulate the unknown.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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