UFC Louisville: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC Louisville:, taking place at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday.

Rayanne dos Santos vs. Puja Tomar

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

These fighters work their hearts out to make this scene, so it pains me as an analyst to question a signing like Puja Tomar's.

Tomar enters UFC from ONE Championship, which is a global promotion for both MMA and Muay Thai. Tomar even competing with full-time Muay Thai strikers speaks to her excellent in the striking realm, but MMA has been a complete disaster at even that sub-UFC level. "The Cyclone" had a 1-3 record with all losses coming via a finish on the ground within eight minutes.

Unfortunately for her, this is an MMA fight, and Rayanne dos Santos can grapple. She's posted 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes on five attempts and has eight pro wins via submission. Those efficiency rates should skyrocket against the one-dimensional Tomar.

dos Santos' UFC debut against Talita Alencar (1-0 UFC) was a successful one to me. She had a +21 striking differential and defended eight of the jiu-jitsu specialist's nine takedown attempts. She also went the full distance with Denise Gomes (2-2 UFC) on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS).

Despite an inexplicable decision against her, dos Santos proved she could excel with a striking advantage. Now, she'll have an enormous one as a grappler, and Tomar didn't knock out any of her four opponents with ONE.

The underdog will have to go twice as long in a setting with real grappling danger than she has before to just see the end of this fight -- much less win it.

Betting Verdict

• At risk of guessing wrong on a submission or ground-and-pound finish, I'm playing dos Santos' inside-the-distance prop (+175) in this fight. Personally, Tomar's signing feels like UFC trying to prove they're vastly superior to ONE, a growing direct competitor.

DFS Verdict

• We will break down why some of the other favorites on this card are a tad shaky. I'd be stunned if Tomar survived in this matchup, so dos Santos ($18) is oddly one of my most confident picks on the card despite never having won in UFC.

Taylor Lapilus vs. Cody Stamann

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Neither of these gentleman are "old", but they made UFC debuts before the start of 2018, so it just feels that way.

Taylor Lapilus didn't stay in UFC the whole time, but the Frenchman who debuted in 2015 has always had top-level skills. Even upon re-entering the promotion in 2023, his striking success rate (+1.54 SSR today) stood out as a man efficient before his time. His pace (3.91 significant strikes landed per minute) isn't high, but he's also never been finished behind an excellent 61% striking D.

Lapilus' ability to win hinges every fight on 77% takedown defense. While certainly not poor, he ceded a combined six in his two UFC losses. That makes this matchup with Cody Stamann, averaging 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, a delightful one.

"The Spartan" has fallen in love with his hands a bit in recent setbacks, but you'd hope the strategy will change in this matchup. He's posted just two takedowns in his last five fights as many of the matchups -- including title contender Merab Dvalishvili -- didn't call for it. Nonetheless, he's also found his first two career knockdowns in this time, so there's also power threat that Lapilus will have to navigate on the feet.

My model has this fight 74.3% likely to go the distance, and that's why I lean toward Stamann. No one has knocked out the veteran in 13 previous appearances -- many of which came inside the rankings years ago. This is a close fight that has split decision written all over it.

Betting Verdict

• Lapilus surrendered five takedowns and 6:58 in control in his last fight, and prime Stamann was a machine at scoring those two things. I've still got the favorite at -145 due to superior age and striking efficiency, but the value here lies squarely on Stamann's moneyline (+220).
  • With such a heavy anecdotal lean for this fight to go its full distance beyond my model's result, I wouldn't blame anyone for simply just taking his decision prop (+350) instead.

DFS Verdict

• If we're getting a decision, there's a minimal chance Lapilus ($20) is the side you want. Stamann ($9) has also significantly outperformed him scoring fantasy points in general.

Eduarda Moura vs. Denise Gomes

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

The women's strawweight division badly needs new talented, and Eduarda Moura has been a wrecking ball that seems to be a future contender.

Through her appearance on DWCS and a debut, Moura's counting stats are hilarious. That includes a +5.16 SSR, 5.34 takedowns per 15 minutes with perfect accuracy, and untouched striking defense (80%). The Brazilian nicknamed "Ronda" uses a similar mauling style of judo to that of Ronda Rousey, and it has demolished her first two opponents.

At this point, she'll just need to show she can make 115 pounds reliably. At 5'6", she's massive for this weight class and will tower over Denise Gomes on Saturday, but she missed weight once again on Friday.

Gomes was an upstart product in her own right before last fall's São Paulo card. There, she ceded five takedowns to Angela Hill (12-13 UFC), replicating the wrestling-induced loss to Loma Lookboonme (6-2 UFC) in her debut. Gomes' 47% takedown defense is the reason she sits as a modest underdog here despite higher level wins to this point.

"Dee" knocked out both Bruna Brasil (1-2 UFC) and Yazmin Jauregui (3-1 UFC), so this will be the first significant power threat Moura has faced in and around UFC. Nonetheless, in a division built on decisions, it's not extremely likely the favorite's undefeated run ends on one seminal blow -- especially defending strikes as well as she has thus far.

Without that seminal blow, this seems like one-way traffic.

Betting Verdict

• I'm inclined to back Moura's inside-the-distance prop (+130) when she's finished 9 of her 10 pro wins with elite size. That translates to both ground-and-pound attacks and submission attempts.

DFS Verdict

• I'm going a bit off the board at MVP this week, and Moura ($19) is a candidate that has my attention. Gomes just lost a grappling match in March via submission.

Daniel Marcos vs. John Castaneda

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I don't see this as Daniel Marcos' toughest test so far, so his pick 'em price wildly appealing.

If he were going to get "fraud checked", the prospect likely would have likely had a harder time with veteran Davey Grant (6-4 UFC). John Castaneda is just in a similar tier.

The Peruvian has starred in three fights so far to post a +1.75 SSR with excellent striking accuracy (50%) and defense (66%). His 89% takedown defense is what frustrated Grant most, and it'll be a similar issue for Castaneda here. Marcos' kickboxing experience shows in elite combinations and decisions. There's a significant question of whether or not he can grapple at a UFC level, but similar to champion Sean O'Malley in this division, you have to get him there first. No one has yet.

"Sexi Mexi" will certainly try. Castaneda has won consecutive fights behind three-plus takedowns in both, and that's the path to victory here. Yet, just one career submission attempt leaves a bit of ambiguity of whether or not he can he can finish the fight on the ground.

At distance, Castaneda's -0.20 SSR was victimized by both Nathaniel Wood (-76 differential), Daniel Santos (-12), and Muin Gafurov (-10). Marcos might be the best pure striker of those four.

That creates a dynamic where one of these men could win handily, but Marcos' exceptional wrestling defense to this point has to give him the nod when every fight starts on the feet.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Marcos as 53.2% likely to win this fight, which is -115 implied. That's just short on value, but I'm a bit higher than that myself when Castaneda's endurance could also be an issue with a wrestling-heavy approach.
• I've only got this fight 58.9% likely to go the full 15 minutes, which was a somewhat surprising result. Divisional trends favor length, so I'll probably pass on this total.

DFS Verdict

• Coinflip odds mean coinflip salaries. With nearly identical rates of accruing fantasy points, pick your winner here. I'm going with Marcos ($16).

Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This is the first of consecutive "loser goes home" bouts. Andrea Lee has lost four in a row, and Montana De La Rosa has just one win in her last six fights. Oof.

I always felt "KGB" Lee was drastically underrated in her prime, but targeting her in a betting sense recently has been painful. Lee suffered two split-decision losses that kept her from a 7-1 start in UFC, but now at 35, her takedown defense (55%) has simply been too poor to overcome. Striker Natalia Silva (4-0 UFC) also bested her in the standup with a +27 differential.

Attempting 5.52 takedowns per 15 minutes, De La Rosa couldn't ask for a better matchup to regain a winning record with the promotion. It'll just be a question of efficiency when her 31% accuracy on those isn't a sure thing, and her -0.51 SSR will get picked apart by Lee's +0.93 mark.

Oh, I also don't really have to speculate about this dynamic. These girls faced off in 2019, and Lee won a unanimous decision with a +59 striking differential despite De La Rosa's five takedowns. However, she was in her prime (30) compared to De La Rosa entering at 24 years old.

As a result, my model is largely advising against a bet. I'll pick De La Rosa, who has likely made strides since their first matchup as Lee's wrestling defense has softened.

Betting Verdict

• As this number widened, De La Rosa's moneyline (+130) fell into value range when I've got her at +105 (48.5% implied) to win. I still prefer a play on her decision prop (+175) given Lee's zero career losses by finish and this fight's general style.
  • I've got this one 75.3% likely to see its full distance -- as was the case in the first fight.

DFS Verdict

• The widening moneyline pushed these salaries to a spot where it's De La Rosa ($14) or a reasonable pass. With 14 fights on the card, you don't have to use someone from all of them.

Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

This is the easiest fight on the card to call -- as Brad Katona's -650 moneyline would indicate.

As shocking as Katona's setback against Garrett Armfield (2-1 UFC) in his home country was, it was a tight decision against a prospect that is doing fine in his own right. Still, the Canadian has just about every single advantage you'd hope for except size entering this matchup with Jesse Butler.

Katona's elite attributes are his durability and endurance. He attempts 9.61 significant strikes and 0.37 takedowns per minute and has been to a decision in six straight fights. I was a bit surprised to see his striking (48%) and takedown (52%) defense so low, but that's a product of a modest level of competition. His three UFC losses have come to opponents with 14 combined wins.

Butler would be -- by far -- the worst loss of the two-time The Ultimate Fighter winner's pro career. The Louisiana native is making a cut to 135 pounds for the first time, so it's possible his size and strength given him a boost in this division, but Butler didn't have a UFC-level resumé before stepping in to face aging lightweight Jim Miller (26-17 UFC) on short notice. He was knocked out in 23 seconds.

While Brad doesn't bring that level of power, I'd be flat stunned if his experience and wrestling couldn't power him to some sort of win in this spot. The size concerns aren't that pronounced when Katona handily defeated Cody Gibson in 2023, and Gibson had similar measurables at 5'10" with a 71" reach.

Betting Verdict

• Though I have a great deal of confidence Katona wins, there's not much value targeting a -650 moneyline for a fighter that has never had athletic traits to produce a UFC finish. It's best to stay away with the fight also a whopping -210 to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• I am officially recommending a pass on this fight in this realm. Katona ($23) comes at a gigantic salary with minimal finishing equity, and Butler ($8) would barely score any points if he's spending the bulk of the fight getting controlled.

Carlos Prates vs. Charles Radtke

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Even as a voice of truth about the Fighting Nerds camp in São Paulo, Carlos Prates is the one that hasn't translated to the stat sheet.

The Brazilian striker overcame a -31 striking differential against Trevin Giles (7-6 UFC) to post a second-round knockout in his UFC debut. He also knocked out Mitch Ramirez (0-1) on DWCS as the lightweight took that fight on short notice. I just see warning signs abound about a one-dimensional striker with awful striking defense (37%) and a -1.57 SSR.

"The Nightmare" also has a gettable 66% takedown defense that Charles Radtke might look to exploit.

There's no doubt that "Chuck Buffalo" has overperformed to start 2-0 in UFC against decorated kickboxer Blood Diamond (0-3 UFC) and Gilbert Urbina (1-1 UFC). I was stunned by Radtke's pair of knockdowns and lethal 63% striking accuracy against the latter, leading to an upset win.

Having a higher opinion of Urbina (+1.00 SSR) than Prates, I have no idea how I pass on Chuck's +186 moneyline here. He's a powerful, efficient striker with good defense (54%), and his takedown threat (4.75 attempts per 15 minutes) is the most pronounced of a UFC foe so far.

This is just a line I don't get.

Betting Verdict

• Prates' camp is a good one, but he's continuously had to overcome slow starts and damage to win fights in the octagon. Radtke's power and strength will be a new test, and he's shown no durability issues to this stage. Radtke's moneyline (+186) was the most obvious underdog target on the card.
• The favorite has finished (and needed to finish) both of his two prior foes, so this fight is -215 to not go the distance. If anyone wins on the cards, I believe it would be Radtke, so I'd bet his decision prop (+440) in lieu of fight goes the distance (+170).

DFS Verdict

• Fresh off 142.0 FanDuel points against Urbina, Radtke ($11) could absolutely find an enormous ceiling in a win. At his salary, it's not a must, though.

Ludovit Klein vs. Thiago Moises

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This fight was trickier to handicap than you might think between UFC veterans. Both Ludovit Klein and Thiago Moises haven't faced a ton of roster staples as of late.

Nonetheless, Klein is a slight favorite here off a highlight, first-round stoppage of AJ Cunningham (0-1 UFC) in March. Wins over Mason Jones (1-2 UFC) and Ignacio Bahamondes (4-2 UFC) are also held in high regard within MMA circles, and he can largely do it all. He's an accurate striker (53%) with modest defense (53%) and has put forth 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. His 83% takedown D also keeps the fight standing if he'd like.

That might be the case against Moises. The American Top Team product is incredibly talented, but I've always been frustrated by just 2.47 significant strikes landed per minute with poor accuracy (40%). He doesn't deal well with pressure; aggressive pitbulls like Joel Alvarez and Benoit Saint Denis ran through him in less than two rounds. His best works has come grappling, posting 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes with three UFC wins via sub.

Given a relatively tight betting line, my model's pick for this fight came down to the three domains of MMA. I'd favor Moises' jiu-jitsu should he have an opportunity, but Klein is the more aggressive striker with equal wrestling data. That presents an easy hedge to a Klein position.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Klein at -135 (57.8% implied), and the only way I see him losing this bout is if Moises is able to snatch yet another sub. I took a position on Klein's moneyline (-142) on Sunday and have hedged it with Moises' submission prop (+390).
• I don't have a particular lean on an early finish here with 55.0% chances, per the model.
  • In addition to Thiago's submission danger, it believes Klein as 20.9% likely to win by knockout.

DFS Verdict

• With some ambiguity on this fight's winner and the method, both are certainly modest DFS plays in a vacuum. I prefer the pace and ability to win minutes of Klein ($16).

Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

In the late 2010s, Miguel Baeza was one of my favorite UFC prospects. "Baeza Hive", we are so back.

The Miami resident was last seen in April 2022 losing by knockout to Andre Fiahlo (2-5 UFC), and I'd be the first to admit that has aged like milk. Even with that result included, Baeza's three defeats have come to fighters 19-13 with UFC. He's no scrub. It's also not his fault he's been out so long with cancelled bouts against Jake Matthews, Yohan Lainesse, and Dhiego Lima since that date.

"Caramel Thunder" has a -0.22 SSR, but his striking accuracy (49%) and defense (53%) suggest more competence. He's also averaged 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes with a win by submission. Believe it or not, all of these stats -- against better competition -- are advantages over Punahele Soriano.

Soriano made plenty of fans quickly with a burst of knockouts and a 1.66% knockdown rate, but he's outright failed his leap up in competition, losing four of his last five. The last against Dustin Stoltzfus, where he was dropped and submitted in the second round, is the most worrisome yet.

"Puna" has a -0.59 SSR, poorer 48% striking D, and 33% takedown D. He's also yet to attempt a submission in UFC, which could be a huge issue given Baeza's excellent skills there. He'll make his first pro appearance at 170 pounds on Saturday.

While the underdog has the right type of power to extend Baeza's chin issues into 2024, the favorite's knockdown rate (1.51%) is also extremely high. Though this is a high-variance brawl on paper, Baeza is better everywhere for a reasonable -194 price.

Betting Verdict

• I loved Baeza's skillset years ago, and it's translated to paper where my model can see it. I've got him -155 to win this bout (60.7% implied).
• I've got this fight 75.2% likely to end early, making it one of the most likely spots for an early finish on the card. I've got Baeza's inside-the-distance prop (-105) at -120 in the model , and that's my single favorite bet in this fight.

DFS Verdict

• Ideally, I'd want a higher floor than that of Baeza ($19) in my MVP spot, but some of Saturday's heaviest favorites could produce absolute stinkers in DFS. I've got no choice but to consider him at the multiplier.

Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Reese

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

This should be a doozy. Julian Marquez and Zachary Reese are both entirely unreliable customers.

Marquez, a roster member since December 2017, has more UFC success (3-3 record), but none of his three wins have come over opponents still on the roster. It's gotten quite ugly for him recently on the back of a -0.13 SSR. He was dropped three times in the first round by Gregory Rodrigues (6-2 UFC) and lost a war to Marc-Andre Barriault (5-6 UFC) via second-round TKO.

"The Cuban Missile Crisis" is a high-volume submission player (2.6 attempts per 15 minutes) at his best but lacks wrestling skills (zero career takedowns) to get it there. The club-and-sub specialist will try to catch Reese's chin here.

I had high hopes for Reese entering his debut, and he nearly secured an armbar on Cody Brundage (4-6 UFC) before getting dropped on his head in a panic maneuver and put out cold. The toolsy middleweight stands 6'4" with a huge reach (77"), but his 28% striking D in 183 seconds of action so far has to be a concern.

Reese has two submission attempts of his own in the short sample, so both fighters have the ability to end each other's night anywhere. That's why this fight is -700 to not go the distance.

Two key factors are why I'm picking Marquez. First, he trains at a much better gym at Factory X Muay Thai than Reese's small gym in Texas filled with UFC flameouts. Secondarily, Reese's level of competition has been significantly -- and I mean significantly -- worse than Marquez's seven straight multi-time winners.

The veteran's attrition could get the best of him, but Marquez is an even better fighter than Brundage, and Reese found a way to lose there.

Betting Verdict

• You don't really need to bet Marquez's moneyline (-144) when the minute-winner here is totally ambiguous. His inside-the-distance prop (-105) shaves off a bit of juice when the two have just one UFC-affiliated decision in nine combined appearances.

DFS Verdict

• This should be an important one in the fantasy realm, and I just have significantly more faith in Marquez ($16) to stay safe behind his submission and striking defense (51%).

Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Can Dustin Stoltzfus pull a pair of massive upsets in a row?

Stoltzfus was written off and buried before his bout with the aforementioned Puna Soriano, and he dominated from the opening bell to secure a second-round submission. I've always felt his advanced strength of schedule was undervalued, passing through the combined 20 wins of the four opponents who have defeated him.

Overall, it's just tough to see his strengths on paper. Stoltzfus' striking accuracy (44%) and defense (48%) are both poor, and he was dropped by Abus Magomedov (2-1 UFC) in 2022. I'd probably give him the jiu-jitsu edge in this matchup behind 0.7 submission attempts per 15, but Brunno Ferreira has three regional submission wins. I don't think he's especially "weak" there.

"The Hulk" is a favorite by way of living up to his nickname thus far. He's had ridiculous power (5.00% knockdown rate) to win three of his four UFC-affiliated appearances by first-round KO, including against Phil Hawes (4-4 UFC) and Gregory Rodrigues (6-2 UFC) on short notice. The sample is small, but a +0.83 SSR is a nice return. He's also defended two of three takedowns.

I backed Stoltzfus as a huge 'dog in the Soriano fight, but that was predicated on extremely poor efficiency from the favorite. Ferreira hasn't really shown that despite a quick KO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev (2-1 UFC). I also don't see Stoltzfus -- with 2 KO wins in 20 pro fights -- as that sort of power threat.

While not fully trusting of Ferreira's athleticism-based quick wins, I don't see why he couldn't snatch another here.

Betting Verdict

• I'm passing on Ferreira's gaudy moneyline (-280) and associated props while believing he does win. There's an athleticism gap when the favorite has quietly found success against quality foes. You could argue the 2-4 record of Stoltzfus is his easiest test to date.

DFS Verdict

• I'm sure Ferreira ($22) will command MVP attention after locking in 100-plus FanDuel points in three of his last four, but I'll stick to flex spots just in case the house of cards tumbles.

Raul Rojas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I've already previewed this fight before it was canceled in February, so I'll do my best to be brief.

19-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. is on every prospect watchlist when he's already a multi-time UFC winner before his 20th birthday, and the grappler seems to be in a great position here. In addition to an elite wrestling game that's seen him land 3.57 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, he's coming off his first UFC knockout to show a bit of power in his hands.

Rosas' lone UFC defeat came to stud prospect Christian Rodriguez (4-1 UFC), who is hurdling toward the rankings at featherweight. Even at a 2-1 record, this feels like a must-win for the youngster just because of this matchup. He's going to struggle quite a bit in UFC if he can't get by Ricky Turcios in what seems like a tailor-made matchup for him.

Turcios, a former The Ultimate Fighter winner, hasn't scored a knockdown since winning the show, and his 45% takedown D nearly cost him that title anyway. Turcios has ceded 13 takedowns in three UFC bouts, and he landed a laughable 11% of his significant strikes in the only appearance without surrendering one -- meaning his opponent didn't even need to consider a level change.

Kevin Natividad (0-3 UFC) just landed 7 of his 13 takedown attempts on Turcios with not nearly the pedigree that "El Niño Problema" already has. Rosas' 46% striking defense isn't great, but his youth, durability, and Turcios' lack of power all help ease those concerns.

We've been waiting for this matchup for months because the UFC isn't inclined to let it go. Now over the illness that canceled the initial scrap in Mexico, Rosas seems poised to get back in the win column.

Betting Verdict

• I see Rosas' moneyline (-230) as a parlay piece. Natividad's wrestling success -- out of nowhere -- should only mean the Mexican-born phenom can get to this to the mat early and often.
• Turcios was KO'd at distance on the regional scene in 2017, but I actually feel fine about his durability. I'm leaning toward Rosas' decision prop (+190) and over 2.5 rounds (-160) in this spot.

DFS Verdict

• Piling up takedown points, I see Rosas ($21) as an MVP candidate who has also finished his two UFC wins. I'm not in love with the ceiling of many fighters on this card, so his decision equity is more tolerable.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Dominick Reyes

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Last week, I struck gold targeting a worrisome chin (Niko Price) that no one wanted to touch. I'll try to do so again with Dominick Reyes here.

"The Devastator" has been out since November 2022 after his third straight knockout loss. Reyes' 48% striking D is certainly an issue, but mammoth power punchers like Ryan Spann, Jiri Prochazka, and Jan Blachowicz aren't exactly embarrassing guys to produce those results. After all, many consider Reyes' 2020 decision loss against Jon Jones the closest that the G.O.A.T. has ever come to losing, amassing a +12 differential against "Bones".

Overall, the former Stony Brook football star has still posted a +0.98 SSR despite the recent setbacks. Dustin Jacoby is a perfect test of whether or not he's just completely shot.

Jacoby's 0.55% knockdown rate might be his true weakness as a striker. Without punching power, he's been on the wrong side of his last three decisions despite solid striking accuracy (47%) and defense (57%). "The Hanyak" is a former kickboxer, so his 60% takedown defense can be leaky, too.

Dom doesn't pose much of a threat as a wrestler (1.29 takedown attempts per 15), but it's there. Taking all this time off to train with Glover Teixeira and 205-pound champ Alex Pereira, I'm firmly of the belief we'll see a few new wrinkles from him on Saturday.

Even if not, my model thinks this line has gotten a bit out of hand as the public believes Reyes is completely toast.

Betting Verdict

• My model still has Jacoby winning this fight 57.8% of the time (-135 implied), but his implied 71.0% odds are far greater. Reyes is the side from a betting perspective.
• Adding to this angle, I'm much higher than the market on this fight to go the distance (+162) at 54.5%. I'm also showing value on Reyes' decision prop (+550) when it's at +290 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• At 36, Jacoby's career-long struggles with punching power should only get worse. I look at this as a spot where I can punt to Reyes ($12) at minimal popularity in a similar fashion that I did last week with Price.

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Jared Cannonier

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

If his fights happened in a different order, 40-year-old Jared Cannonier would be a UFC champion.

Cannonier beat Sean Strickland to close 2022's calendar year, and last year, Strickland was able to do what he couldn't and figure out the Israel Adesanya puzzle. In his last fight, "The Killa Gorilla" firmly established himself on that same tier with a violent win over Marvin Vettori -- a top-10 contender at 185 -- with a +88 striking differential. His career-high in significant strikes that fight (241) might be proving age is just a number.

He'll drop down in the rankings again to face Nassourdine Imavov, who is coming off a win over Roman Dolidze (6-3) in his first career main event. The Frenchman is well-rounded with a +1.27 SSR and plenty of variance in his striking game, and he's added 0.87 takedowns and 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes when the matchup called for it.

Imavov faced Strickland nearly a month after Cannonier, but his -59 striking differential in a loss showed the gap between those two then. The question is whether or not the gap has closed as Imavov, 28, is still in a window of significant improvement.

Two key factors forced me onto Cannonier in this one despite not quite finding value in my model, which has him at +125.

First, he trains with the MMA Lab in Arizona -- home to Sean O'Malley and other elite guys. I believe it to be the best striking gym in the sport, and those dividends showed in the Vettori fight. Secondarily, my model always has struggled with Cannonier due to a 3-4 start in UFC at light heavyweight and heavyweight. Since getting in shape and dropping to middleweight, he's been a different animal.

Betting Verdict

• Despite being short on analytical value within the model at +125, I still endorse Cannonier's moneyline (+102) knowing the poor, irrelevant sample that his career-long stats include.
• Plus, with a 71.9% chance that this fight goes the distance, per the model, I'd rather not sweat chalk -- especially considering how wide the gap of these two's performance against Strickland was just about 18 months ago.

DFS Verdict

• Lack of value has been a theme of our entire card, so saving a few bucks to target Cannonier ($17) makes plenty of sense when I'm expecting a close fight that goes the distance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.