UFC London: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 15 fights at UFC London: Aspinall vs. Tybura, taking place at the O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday.

Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

We'll see if Jafel Filho can pay off the "Muradov Bump" here in this fight.

Filho was the latest to lose to U.K. wrestling phenom Mohmmad Mokaev in his debut, but that wasn't the first Mokaev result that contained drama. Filho actually injured the star with an attempted kneebar in the final round.

That still wasn't a close bout. Mokaev landed four takedowns to his none, and Filho was controlled for 55.0% of the fight. Filho has had a negative striking differential in both UFC-affiliated starts to this point, which isn't a surprise for the jiu-jitsu practitioner with 8 of his 14 pro wins by submission.

We haven't seen Daniel Barez since Dana White's Contender Series, but his result has aged like fine wine. He took Carlos Hernandez (2-1 UFC) to a split decision, landing five takedowns. Barez's striking accuracy (50%) and defense (53%) also outperformed the multi-time UFC winner.

At this point, Hernandez's resume is as good as -- if not better than -- Mokaev's, and Barez fought much better. This line is curiously short, but it doesn't take much digging to find out why.

Betting Verdict: This line is trending toward Filho, so I'll get to Barez if he's still at plus money come Saturday. At this point, there's no urgency to force it. Barez and Filho have both been submitted twice, but I'm right in line with over 2.5 rounds (-106) in this spot.

DFS Verdict: This line has closed to a pick 'em and matching $16 salaries. Filho is likely the more popular of the two with a modest effort in his debut, but I prefer Barez.

Bruna Brasil vs. Shauna Bannon

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Bruna Brasil was a winner at UFC 290 two weeks ago without fighting.

Dee Gomes' explosive knockout there made the one Brasil suffered during her UFC debut in Kansas City look quite a bit more passable. We're kind of at a loss of quality data with Brasil between that effort and a dominant win in her Contender Series bout, and this is certainly a step back in competition from Gomes.

Still, there's no doubt the home crowd will be behind Shauna Bannon instead. Bannon, a 29-year-old kickboxing star from Ireland, is living fruit from the trees Conor McGregor planted with Irish MMA during his run to the top nearly a decade ago.

Bannon was vaulted above the Contender Series and right to the big show, but with no wins or losses by submission and the kickboxing background, she's probably the striker of these two. Brasil did land two takedowns in the non-Gomes bout, so she's got that in her pocket against weaker foes.

More than any fight on this card, your guess is as good as mine. I'll turn to the 'dog here on a card without many I love.

Betting Verdict: There's no analytical analysis here given how Brasil performed in her debut against much better competition, and Bannon's strengths and weaknesses are totally unknown. It's best to take in data here.

DFS Verdict: Here's where a dart at Bannon ($13) could be more appropriate when underdogs aren't particularly great on the card.

Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Lightweight (155 pounds)

These two won their UFC debuts at UFC 286 in London earlier this year. Now, they're matched up against each other looking for a second win.

I'll admit that Chris Duncan surprised me that day. With a frighteningly poor striking defense that he still carries (41%), I was worried he'd be sparked by Omar Morales, but he took Morales -- a former featherweight -- down five times to secure the victory. Duncan's cardio might be his best weapon with his takedown accuracy (36%) also poor to this stage.

Yanal Ashmouz did nothing wrong in his debut, but he also faced Sam Patterson, a weaker opponent, making his. Ashmouz landed all four takedowns in his PFL appearance, so going one-for-one in UFC shows there's some well-roundedness to a guy with obvious knockout power.
Duncan is the larger guy, so he could swallow Ashmouz with his wrestling as he did Morales, but offense -- like Yanal has shown -- usually translates to defense. There's a massive gap in responsible striking here with Ashmouz's 71% striking defense, too. I've got him favored.

Betting Verdict: Ashmouz's powerful debut combined with a successful stint in PFL -- America's second-best MMA promotion -- makes him the more reliable target to me. I'll keep watching this moneyline for the best number.

DFS Verdict: Ashmouz ($14) is my single favorite DFS underdog on the card, and his pace and finishing upside shined through in his debut. Duncan gets hit too often to consistently see the end of fights.

Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Ketlen Vieira has lost three of her last four bouts as the betting favorite. It's a continued obsession with what her skills could make her.

That's why I prefer stats that say how she uses them -- and the answer is not in an effective way. Vieira holds a lackluster 41% striking accuracy and 51% striking defense, and her endurance becomes an issue when she chooses to use what is elite grappling when she's fresh. She's posted just 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes.

To me, there is one thing Pannie Kianzad has to do to win this fight. Kianzad's 80% takedown defense is superb, and if it holds, her SSR (+1.20) should show to win out. Kianzad has held a positive striking differential in six straight fights.

Vieira is likely a vastly superior grappler, but choosing that approach will wear on her infamously short gas tank. If she chooses to strike with Kianzad, she's at a deficit.

Both of these fighters fought Raquel Pennington, and Kianzad's striking differential (+2) significantly outperformed Vieira's (-17). Vieira's overall game and tools are superior, but her unwillingness and/or inability to use them makes Kianzad my favorite underdog of the week.

Betting Verdict: I could not love Kianzad more. I've got her closer to -150 at a +128 price tag. This line is still moving, so I am good to keep waiting to back her in droves. With such a pronounced striking edge, Kianzad by KO/TKO (+1000) is likely undervalued, too.

DFS Verdict: With over 2.5 rounds sitting at -360, this fight is likely not a priority for most. I'll have to actively make sure I'm overweight on Kianzad ($13) as most slant toward the 'dog in a fight expected to go the distance.

Makhmud Muradov vs. Bryan Barbarena

Middleweight (185 pounds)

As they age, some fighters don't get the choice to move up in weight. I'm wondering if this has happened to Bryan Barbarena because it makes no sense otherwise.

Barbarena was dominated by Rafael Dos Anjos (a natural 155-pounder) and Gunnar Nelson in consecutive fights at 170 pounds, so now he's taking the plunge to 185 pounds? It seems like a horrible choice.

Now, the caveat here is Barbarena will likely get a fight that doesn't plow through his 54% takedown defense, so that's good. Makhmud Muradov averages just 0.75 takedowns per 15.

Still, as a striker, Muradov's SSR (+1.63) and striking defense (60%) are considerably better, and there's no question he'll have an edge in power at his organic weight class.

There's a version -- not too likely -- of this fight where Barbarena's speed overwhelms the larger Muradov, but I can't realistically expect "Bam Bam" to pay mind to his defense (44% striking defense) for 15 minutes without getting clipped and significantly compromised.

After getting bullied in consecutive fights when grappling, it's also possible Muradov takes those lessons learned and applies them to the smaller veteran.

Betting Verdict: Muradov's moneyline is beyond fair. I actually think my favorite way to back him is by submission (+1100) with Barbarena coming off two straight losses by sub at a lower weight class. His knockout prop (+160) is rightfully getting hammered here, and I see both as a possibility.

DFS Verdict: Muradov lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute for a big guy, so his pace isn't that poor. He's absolutely an MVP candidate at $22.

Jamal Pogues vs. Mick Parkin

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Jamal Pogues should have a tougher Saturday at the office than his debut produced.

Pogues tormented Josh Parisian's 48% takedown defense for five takedowns in a comfortable, unexciting win earlier this year, but if his trip on the Contender Series was any indication, Mick Parkin won't allow for a boring fight.

Parkin, a teammate of this card's headliner Tom Aspinall, produced a wild, up-and-down brawl from which he prevailed via submission. Mick's 30% striking defense in a sub-two-minute battle was horrid, but his cardio held strong for two takedowns and an insane pace of 10.87 FanDuel points per minute.

"The Stormtrooper" Pogues has just one regional submission win (compared to two losses) and wasn't able to find the finish on Parisian. That's not ideal when he also struggled mightily on the feet, and Parkin's speed and quickness are some of his better traits like his teammate.

Using context clues, this card in Parkin's home country likely isn't a prop-up spot for the favorite. He's fast, dangerous, and worth a dart when Pogues scored a C- type of performance in his debut.

Betting Verdict: This fight is -130 to see under 2.5 rounds, which is a pretty long number for a heavyweight bout. That would favor Pogues, so if you like Parkin as I do, his inside-the-distance prop (+190) carries some mathematical value.

DFS Verdict: Set to face far more resistance to his grappling, Pogues amassed just 69.8 FanDuel points in his debut. I don't know why you'd seek out his $18 salary.

Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese

Lightweight (155 pounds)

It's okay to be wrong previewing a fight, but it's important to understand why.

I thought Marc Diakiese turned a corner with consecutive wins, but he lost in embarrassing fashion to Michael Johnson last December in Orlando. Johnson's 80% takedown defense has held solid exiting his prime, so he was a terrible matchup for "Bonecrusher" despite his solid takedown accuracy (43%).

He'll surely get back to taking guys down against Joel Alvarez this weekend. Alvarez hasn't defended any of the six takedown attempts he's faced in UFC -- often by choice. He's a dangerous jiu-jitsu practitioner with two first-round submissions on his record already. He also blitzed out Thiago Moises (7-4 UFC) with a knockout.

For the odds, Diakiese really has one key responsibility. If he can avoid a submission, his 53% striking D is actually more responsible than Alvarez's (49%) at distance. Plus, this is a monster weight cut for Joel, and he hasn't gone beyond the second round yet.

I initially leaned Alvarez here with everyone else, but he will only be dangerous for so long. Diakiese piled up 19 takedowns (!) in two fights before Johnson against two guys with a sub-40% takedown D. On paper, Alvarez should be his easiest guy to get down yet.

Betting Verdict: I would pick Alvarez in a high-stakes pick 'em contest, but for the price, Diakiese has just a small storm at the beginning of this fight to endure before he could break "El Fenomeno". His moneyline is worth a look.

DFS Verdict: Alvarez's per-minute FanDuel scoring is awful, but the Moises one-off is what sticks in the minds of most. I don't even know if he's got the upside to justify a $20 salary with the other massive favorites on this card.

Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons

Welterweight (170 pounds)

If you're not keen on how Dana White's Contender Series works, you don't have to get a contract if you win. Therefore, I have no idea how Jonny Parsons did.

He squeaked out a split decision after being knocked down -- and nearly out -- by his opponent. He enters this one with a dismal -1.67 SSR against a non-UFC foe, and his 50% takedown defense was also an issue for the one-dimensional striker.

There are levels to "struggling". Danny Roberts also hasn't had a great recent run, failing to outstrike his opponent in a win since 2019. He's taken lopsided losses to ranked guys like Michel Pereira and Jack Della Maddalena in this time. Even with that said, Roberts' -0.42 SSR overall is significantly better than Parsons.

I don't have a morsel of data to suggest Parsons is a budding UFC prospect, and he's also coming off brain surgery and was 30 pounds overweight entering this camp. That's not a great start.

At a nearly identical acquisition cost, the UFC veteran is extremely appealing.

Betting Verdict: Closing line value means virtually nothing in this sport, but this line has moved away from a pick 'em toward Roberts this week. I've felt he was the side and locked in as soon as it started to move, but jumping in anywhere south of -150 is fine by me.

DFS Verdict: These salaries are nearly identical, so pick your horse. I just have no idea why that would be Parsons ($15).

Daniel Marcos vs. Davey Grant

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

The key number in this fight is 37.

That's the age of Davey Grant in one of UFC's fastest, most youthful divisions, and he looked every bit of it when needing a third-round submission to escape 41-year-old Raphael Assunscao earlier this year in Vegas. Grant's analytical profile is pretty bland from a long career of work, but he's well-rounded with an excellent striking pace (4.89 significant strikes per minute).

Daniel Marcos sees a massive step up in competition to meet him here. Marcos blasted through Brazilian grappler Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut, which was a huge challenge passed for a fighter without a pro win or loss via submission.

Still, Marcos has been flat dominant through two UFC-affiliated appearances, compiling a 51% striking accuracy and 71% striking defense. The defense could be especially problematic for Grant, whose 44% accuracy is a bit on the low side as is.

Grant is absolutely a live underdog as the superior wrestler and grappler, but he's always been hesitant to use it, per just 3.36 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. This gap in competition is a bit harrowing, but it's hard to ignore what the prospect has done in a limited sample in UFC's toughest division.

Betting Verdict: Grant hasn't been finished early in a UFC bout since 2018; Marcos' finishing binge to begin his career has left value with the -106 odds this fight goes the full distance. While picking the Peruvian to win, I'll sit out a side.

DFS Verdict: This is where Marcos -- at a friendly $17 salary with other heavier favorites on the card -- is best to support. We've seen Grant cede at least 70 significant strikes or 5 takedowns in four straight fights, so volume can be had.

Lerone Murphy vs. Josh Culibao

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Lerone Murphy is a lot like his countryman and welterweight champion Leon Edwards. There's not much volume, but he always finds a way.

Other than a first-round knockout of Ricardo Ramos, Murphy's resumé is still fairly thin. He beat Douglas Silva de Andrade, who went 1-2 at featherweight before dropping to 135 pounds, and Makwan Amirkhani (7-7 UFC) before nearly missing a layup at UFC 286.

On short notice, Gabriel Santos took Murphy down five times and nearly won a split decision. Murphy's 43% takedown defense is wretched, which is why UFC likely paired him with Josh Culibao in this fight. Culibao hasn't landed a takedown on 11 career attempts thus far.

Many of those attempts came against a better defense, though. We saw how well Culibao can grapple in a submission win over Melsik Baghdasaryan earlier this year in Perth. Culibao is unbeaten in four fights since dropping to featherweight.

Culibao is just a tough out behind a 59% striking defense and 82% takedown defense. I would feel tremendous picking him to win this fight if I knew he'd give his wrestling one last college try, but he can still compete with Murphy -- who ceded a 56% striking accuracy to the debuting Santos last time out -- when striking, too.

Betting Verdict: Culibao's last fight showed how quickly he can defeat one-dimensional strikers if the fight hits the mat. Plus, this is Culibao's third-highest-ranked fight in UFC while being Murphy's toughest. That competition jump could be crucial. I'll back his moneyline (+122) and submission prop (+1300) here.

DFS Verdict: Murphy's pace concerns only hinder what is already a shaky case to win in a tough defensive matchup. I think it's Culibao ($14) or pass in a fight that likely isn't fantasy-relevant if it goes the full distance, and it's -168 to do so.

Fares Ziam vs. Jai Herbert

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I've been highly critical of both of these guys, so it'll be nice to support one for a change.

Fares Ziam's issue, to me, has been his volume. You can't really poke holes in the three-time UFC winner's 66% striking defense and 70% takedown defense. He's usually just outgunned averaging an extremely low 2.52 significant strikes per minute, but that's not the case here. Jai Herbert (2.55) isn't far ahead.

I'd submit a vote for Herbert as one of the worst fighters on UFC's roster with multiple victories. In addition to his low volume, his striking accuracy (42%), striking defense (44%), and takedown D (52%) are all poor. Herbert has been bailed out by a 1.96% knockdown rate against poor competition.

Ziam hasn't been knocked down in UFC, which eliminates a huge part of Herbert's path to win this fight. As a bonus, the 26-year-old "Smile Killer" added three takedowns in his last bout -- something Herbert hasn't shown.

Betting Verdict: Onto the main card, my model has quality enough stats to make projections. It's got Ziam projected to win by decision 71.2% of the time since he doesn't have a career knockdown, but even with a margin for error due to Herbert's poor defense, I like that bet at +220.

DFS Verdict: Herbert, with the huge knockdown rate, could be a popular English underdog, but I will turn to Ziam ($19) in flex spots only. He's got to show more volume to sniff MVP.

Andre Muniz vs. Paul Craig

Middleweight (185 pounds)

In case you missed it, Paul Craig is dropping to middleweight, and there are no hydration-related antics here. Craig looks trimmed out and ready to go for this debut at 185.

It'll be interesting to see if it helps him assert his wrestling. "Bearjew" will never be confused with an above-average UFC striker (-0.44 SSR), but improving upon a poor 20% takedown accuracy against smaller guys should be all it takes. We all know about the dominant jiu-jitsu with six of his eight UFC wins coming via sub.

That's why Andre Muniz is such an intriguing matchup here. Muniz was the BJJ boogeyman at middleweight before his last fight where he was shockingly submitted by Brendan Allen. He's won four of his six UFC bouts via submission, and these two average an identical 1.7 submission attempts per 15.

Muniz and Craig should be considered a wash when grappling, and they're both inorganic strikers. This could be an ugly slog with minimal offensive moments, which means the distant 'dog is probably the right play.

Betting Verdict: Muniz is the better striker, but that's not worth the price. I've got him about -155 to win (60.1%) implied against these odds. With a stalemate grappling and lack of punching power, over 1.5 rounds (-122) is my favorite bet in this bout.

DFS Verdict: Craig's minimum salary ($8) is offensively low. The last time he had a minimum salary, he put up 128.8 FanDuel points in a surprise submission of Jamahal Hill. He's got as much finishing upside as the favorite.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Other than the headliner, Nathaniel Wood is England's best UFC fighter, so it was shocking when he was on the prelims last July. He's found a much larger spotlight one win later.

At 5' 6", Wood is a bit small for this division, but he's as strong as an ox for 145 pounds that's a dynamic threat when striking (+1.92 SSR) or wrestling (1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy). Adding three UFC wins via submission, he can truly do it all.

His only losses with UFC were a controversial decision and a surprise knockout blitz from John Dodson seconds into a round back in 2019. He's yet to be covered by another foe.

Andre Fili will try to do that while also bucking a 2-3 skid (with a no-contest) in his last six fights. One of Team Alpha Male's leaders is sneaky old (33) and just squeaked out a win over Bill Algeo with a -22 striking differential last September.

"Touchy" Fili's length could be a bit of an issue for Wood when Fili's 69% takedown defense has also been a problem. However, the real win condition here for Wood is likely his own stellar 73% takedown defense. Fili's striking accuracy (37%) is so poor that he hasn't had a positive striking differential in a full fight since 2019.

Betting Verdict: Wood has strayed away from his grappling as he's aged and has yet to record a knockdown at featherweight. That's a big reason why my model is picking him to win by decision 55.5% of the time here, and that is a value bet at +120.

DFS Verdict: A decision wouldn't make Wood ($20) the best target here. I'll keep him to flex spots, but I'm not even sure how fantasy-relevant a Fili win -- likely an ugly wrestling display -- would even be.

Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This feels like UFC apologizing to Molly McCann for making her fight title contender Erin Blanchfield in Blanchfield's home state. Now, Liverpool's McCann will get to walk as the co-main in London -- and with a winnable matchup.

Really, if "Meatball" Molly has been faced with a striking match, she's crushed it. Her 50% striking accuracy and 63% striking defense are both elite. She's posted nearly six significant strikes per minute with those efficiency marks, too. Whenever McCann loses, it's always back to a wretched 44% takedown defense.

That's likely why Julija Stoliarenko signed the dotted line. Stoliarenko figures if she can get a takedown in her flyweight debut, she could submit McCann, but there are two issues with that.

First, Stoliarenko has won via armbar for 9 of her 10 pro victories. Jessica-Rose Clark couldn't pass the test in UFC, but everyone else has. It's an easy submission to defend and see coming. Secondarily, the Lithuanian's 25% takedown accuracy is poor, so she hasn't been very skilled about landing the takedown she needs.

I find it much more likely McCann torches Stoliarenko's -1.86 SSR on the feet, and the additional weight cut for Julija in this spot could be a terrible development for her durability.

Betting Verdict: McCann's low knockdown rate pushes my model away from her KO/TKO prop (+165) for a decision (+240). Plus, Stoliarenko's only loss by knockout was at 145 pounds. I've got McCann's decision prop closer to -135, so there's solid value there.

DFS Verdict: Even without a knockout, Molly's excellent pace should work wonders to score FanDuel points against an overmatched foe. There's a bit of risk she's taken down and kept out of the box score but is still a sublime MVP candidate at $21.

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

Heavyweight (265 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)

Tom Aspinall was expected to be England's first titleholder since Michael Bisping in 2016, but last summer changed everything.

Aspinall tore his ACL last July just seconds into a bout with Curtis Blaydes, and of course, Leon "Rocky" Edwards stunned everyone by beating Kamaru Usman twice -- each time close and as a huge underdog. I'd still wager on Aspinall to be England's only hope to hold a title at the end of 2024.

He was flying toward superstardom with insane peripherals. In addition to a +4.54 SSR that defies logic, Aspinall has added 4.00 takedowns and 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes in a growing, six-fight sample. He's been too fast and well-rounded for UFC's least-skilled division.

That's how Marcin Tybura has made his living here, too. Tybura's ground knowledge trumps most heavyweights, allowing him to tire out and flatten Alexander Romanov, Walt Harris, and Greg Hardy since the start of 2020.

The problem is, unlike Aspinall, he's a large man that can't put forth much offense without getting tired. He averages just 3.55 significant strikes per minute to Aspinall's 7.41.

"Tybur" has solid 55% striking defense and 79% takedown defense marks at heavyweight, but at heavyweight is the key phrase. Aspinall flattened Alexander Volkov, who has won six of his last nine at heavyweight, in less than a round, and Volkov beat Tybura.

Tom is the card's largest favorite for good reason.

Betting Verdict: I've got Aspinall at -550 (84.0% implied) to win by KO/TKO/Submission, so I'm even showing value against FanDuel Sportsbook's -380 mark. Even that mark, though, is probably a parlay piece. There's just not much juice to squeeze in this fight.

DFS Verdict: This is the better spot to back Tom. His $23 salary is a bargain when it comes with the card's best per-minute scoring averages and its best early-finish potential.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.