UFC London Best Bets and Predictions: Edwards vs. Brady

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC London: Edwards vs. Brady, taking place at the O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday.

UFC London Betting Picks

Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin

Parkin to Win (-128)

Mick Parkin was +106 on Sunday. He's -128 now. The value is still not gone in this betting line.

The Englishman has a home-turf advantage, but that's not the only reason to back him against 39-year-old Marcin Tybura. Parkin's combined a higher strkiing success rate (+0.76 SSR) than Tybura (+0.31) with a higher takedown accuracy (41%) and rate of submission attempts per 15 minutes (0.3).

You'd think "Tybur" has a level of competition edge inside the rankings, but I'm thoroughly unimpressed with his performance relative to recent strength of schedule. His last seven wins have come against fighters a combined 35-39 in UFC, and he was finished in both of his latest trips inside the rankings.

As the primary training partner of Tom Aspinall, Parkin's well-roundedness shows in the octagon. Tybura's only been finished in 5 of his 25 UFC appearances, but the younger, faster Parkin should have answers wherever the fight heads.

I've got him 62.8% likely (-170 implied) to win this fight with decent equity in all three outcomes.

Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland

Holland to Win (+104)
Holland by (T)KO or Submission (+185)

There isn't a fighter tougher for me to model than Kevin Holland.

I don't bend rules on full-career sample sizes, but Holland's massive gap in performance between his disciplined weight class (170) and undisciplined weight class (185) are jarring. He's 5-3 against fighters who primarily fight at welterweight, and that record is just 8-7 against those with more starts at middleweight. Even more telling, his takedown D in the former eight fights (77.8%) stomps what it's been at 185 pounds (53.1%).

Back at welterweight (170 pounds), I think this is an ideal matchup opposite a 36-year-old Gunnar Nelson, who might be toast and we just don't know it. Nelson's convincing wins over two fighters with poor grappling are his only appearances since September 2019.

Needing to secure takedowns to be successful, Nelson's 49% striking D is a disaster waiting to happen if he gets stuck at distance opposite "Trailblazer", and Holland has secured sneaky front chokes before if you sell out to wrestle him.

My model's got Holland at just 49.7% to win this fight, but that's still a ton of win equity at this line considering how much better a model outcome would have been with just his welterweight sample. I think he finishes a fragile "Gunni".

Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg by (T)KO (+175)

This line is insanity.

Carlos Ulberg went all 15 minutes opposite a savvy Volkan Oezdemir (8-7 UFC) in his last bout, but the City Kickboxing product is a knockout artist. He's married 7.20 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes with a sizable 1.33% knockdown rate.

Oh yeah, the guy he's facing is also now 42 years old.

That's former 205-pound champ Jan Blachowicz, who makes just his second appearance since the start of 2023 on Saturday. The layoff only adds to those concerns when Blachowicz's 53% striking defense has always been more solid than special.

There's some anecdotal bias behind this line. Blachowicz has been knocked down -- and knocked out -- just once in UFC. That was Thiago Santos in 2019, whose 1.58% knockdown rate was also the last that Blachowicz has faced above 1.25%.

I've got Ulberg 45.9% (+118 implied) to find a knockout in this fight. It only helps that he's got to be hunting one if he wants to change Dana White's mind about an Ankalaev-Pereira rematch for this division's next title fight.

Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady

Brady to Win After Round 3 (+110)

I think this is a good way to back Sean Brady if you think he does his thing against Leon Edwards as a -160 favorite.

Edwards' 65% takedown D is just such a tough sell to upset Brady, one of the most efficient wrestlers at welterweight. He averages 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with stellar accuracy (52%).

"Rocky", though, is one of the toughest guys to finish in the entire sport. Edwards' four losses have come from three decisions and a disqualification that was his own fault. He's seen the start of Round 5 in all seven of his career main events or title fights with solid cardio, including his last effort: a loss to Belal Muhammad surrendering nine mat returns.

Brady's points prop is 38.0% likely in my model (+163 implied), and I've got this fight 70.5% likely to see its entire distance. Edwards, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, has done too well staying safe on the mat to think that Brady is able to submit him. Sean couldn't even find a submission attempt in a 25-minute, dominant win over Gilbert Burns last September.

A vast majority of the time, the favorite wins by points behind his wrestling. However, I don't mind swallowing a bit of juice on a late finish if Edwards eventually melts under the pressure or makes a frustrated mistake in his home country. I've got Brady's finishing equity high enough (16.9%) to make it worth hedging.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.