Topuria is the unanimous pick across all expert sources. FanDuel Research states: "Topuria's elite boxing fundamentals and precision power are tailor-made to punish Gaethje's forward-walking, chin-first approach." Covers notes he is trailing only Islam Makhachev as the pound-for-pound No. 1 fighter in the UFC. At 17-0 with three straight knockout wins over former and current champions, he enters this matchup as one of the most dominant champions the lightweight division has seen.

Gaethje deserves respect — he beat Paddy Pimblett over 25 rounds to claim the interim belt and has genuine knockout power. But Topuria has shown he can absorb elite-level strikes without flinching, something Max Holloway couldn't manage against him. The -500 juice is steep, but this is one of the safest bets on the card. Best angle: parlay Topuria ML with another short favorite to improve the return.

This is the coin-flip fight of the night — Gane opened as a slight -112 favorite, Pereira at -108. FanDuel Research backs Pereira: "Gane's technical kickboxing and movement will make it competitive, but Pereira's finishing ability and fighting IQ give him the edge. History suggests Pereira finds a way." CBS Sports' Campbell and SportsLine's Vithlani both pick Pereira.

Pereira (13-3) is chasing history — no fighter has ever won titles in three UFC weight classes. He moved up from light heavyweight after losing the title to Magomed Ankalaev, then TKO'd Ankalaev in a revenge fight at UFC 320. Gane is technically excellent and the legitimate toughest test at heavyweight, but Pereira has demonstrated a finishing instinct that elevates him in close fights. At -108 you're essentially getting even money on a proven two-division champion who's one win from immortality.

O'Malley is a -440 moneyline favorite — far too expensive to back outright. The value is in the method. SportsLine's Vithlani names O'Malley by KO/TKO at +200 as his top pick for the entire card. FanDuel Research predicts: "O'Malley has too much in every area — speed, power, and creativity on the feet. Zahabi is tough and experienced, but this is a significant step up in competition. O'Malley should get the finish."

O'Malley (19-3) returned from back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili with a win over Song Yadong, and this fight is a significant step-down in competition. Zahabi is durable and experienced but has never faced anyone with O'Malley's combination of accuracy, range control and one-shot power. At +200 for a finish that FanDuel Research, CBS Sports and SportsLine all project as the likely outcome, this is the best value prop on the card.

Hokit is a -440 favorite — worth backing to win outright, but the Round 1 prop at +110 gives you better value for the same outcome. SBR specifically calls it out: "Make Hokit by KO (-105) the full emphasis, fantastic value against a faded veteran. Hokit in Round 1 (+110) is a fine play, too."

CBS Sports' Mahjouri is explicit: "Lewis' loss to Waldo Cortes Acosta was tremendously concerning. He seemed slower and more uncomfortable taking damage. Those are huge red flags against Hokit, a brawler who will throw hard leather constantly." Lewis (41) is 1-5 in his last six bouts. Hokit is an undefeated 9-0 heavyweight with a college football background who has been climbing the rankings through sheer physicality. He will come out throwing — and Lewis doesn't have the legs to weather early pressure anymore. At +110, Hokit winning in Round 1 is nearly even money and the value pick of the card.

This is the most genuine toss-up non-title fight on the card. Garcia has won 7 straight and his continued rise makes +124 genuinely appealing. SportsLine's Marley specifically picks the upset. If you want the safer play, Lopes at -155 is the consensus pick — still reasonable juice for a fight where most analysts expect him to win. Either way, this is the best competitive fight on the card outside the two title bouts.